[Mike]

Hi
Here are the last of the selections all are a little bit short in price this week but such is life.

Fairyhouse 12.00 Munsif without Macho Man & Proactif @ 5-6
Lingfield 1.10 Siam Ruby @ 1-3
Kempton 1.30 King Al without Precious Man @ 16-5
Kempton 2.40 Boombawn without Kalif Du Berlais @ 7-5
Middlesborough to draw or win against Fulham @ 6-5
Ospreys – 5 to beat Zebre @ 10-11

The lottery numbers will be 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi
We could only manage two of the football bets last week by means of the Villa game @ 9-5 and the Arsenal result @ 15-8 so it would be nice to get the all elusive treble in again this week especially as its a quadruple rollover. So best foot forward this weekend lets all get involved. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Bambino Fever runs tomorrow in the 12.30 at Fairyhouse for Steve (Hoepfull), Rob, Andy and Joe and if as expected wins will take Steve Andy and Joe into the lead as they already have points this month. As mentioned before this month should not take much winning and could still be decided on a couple of big races scheduled on the last day of the month in what promises to be another close finish.

[Mike]

Hi Hopefull
Well done with a 9-1 winner it looks like your patience paid off and nice to see you taking the early prices. 👍 I know you have put a lot of time and effort into your new software program.

[Mike]

Hi
The each way extra prices look unplayable but as this is a new idea/thread I will take the plunge with a range of bet builders from bet 365.
I am sure you do not need telling to be very wary of new ideas and especially mine as backing 200-1 shots to come anywhere but last is a fools errand but here goes. I will risk 4x 1/2 point wagers all for top 10 finishes on the following and hope for a miracle.

Blow Wind Blow & Anodandawink @ 9-1
Blow Wind Blow & The Dancen Kid @ 11-1
Anodandawink & The Dancen Kid @ 18-1
Blow Wind Blow, Anodandawink & The Dancen Kid @ 70-1

[Mike]

Hi Hopefull
It is a difficult task at the best of times on these threads to beat the old enemy as there overround’s can be ridiculous and as we are only working in general on level stakes profit to a points value, Suds spotted that a couple of bookies were offering money back bets on the 1.43 which both yourself and Rob were backing runners in today. The question arose as to would you be allowed to use these offers on the threads.
The short answer is yes as long as it is a legitimate offer from one of the big firms is advertised on the site for all to see and any T&C’s (ie bet credits used in this instance within 7 days) that are attached are adhered to as technically in my eyes it is a perfectly legitimate wager. This also applies to bet boosts but again must be generally available and advertised for all to see. Therefore just to clarify you may today (edit your wager) or in future use such offers on the threads. I am posting this on Rob’s thread as well so that it becomes visible to everyone.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
It is a difficult task at the best of times on these threads to beat the old enemy as there overround’s can be ridiculous and as we are only working in general on level stakes profit to a points value, Suds spotted that a couple of bookies were offering money back bets on the 1.43 which both yourself and Hopefull were backing runners in today. The question arose as to would you be allowed to use these offers on the threads.
The short answer is yes as long as it is a legitimate offer from one of the big firms is advertised on the site for all to see and any T&C’s (ie bet credits used in this instance within 7 days) that are attached are adhered to as technically in my eyes it is a perfectly legitimate wager. This also applies to bet boosts but again must be generally available and advertised for all to see. Therefore just to clarify you may today (edit your wager) or in future use such offers on the threads. I am posting this on Hopefull’s thread as well so that it becomes visible to everyone.

[Mike]

Hi
Although a very tricky race the 1.43 has attracted a kit kat challenge in the fact that a couple of the BP gang have differing opinions in the same race. Now as it happens I also have a long shot in that race (who unfortunately is drifting like a barge) but has potential and could make up an interesting bet builder along with the other two. ?
I will leave the post open and edit it when the prices come up.
nb. Prices just came up and Classical Creek, I’ll Sort That and Lord Rouge all for a top 5 finish (including a bet 365 bet boost) comes out at a smidge short of 7-1. ?

[Mike]

Hi
I suppose that could have been worse the main bet was a non runner and although the bet builder lost I did put both of the others up as each way extra’s and Humble Brag actually placed fourth. This leads to the coulda,woulda,shoulda scenario of why did I not back it for the 5 places on offer at 25-1 etc etc but overall it was a loss of -1.4 points on the day.
There is a bet tomorrow over at Naas which will actually now be the 12.43 and if you think today’s bet was ridiculous given the write up for our selections in the racing post have a look at tomorrows trio…lol.

12.43 Blow Wind Blow @ 50-1
12.43 Anodandawink @ 150-1
12.43 The Dancen Kid @ 200-1

This will be a bet builder and/or each way extras again and we will update when the markets are published.

[Mike]

Hi
All that build up and my first runner from the win and place list…is… now a non runner. I will on principle have to try out the second option but as the number of runners dwindles it alters my calculations somewhat but here goes.

Crypto Currency @ 12-1 for 8 places
Humble Brag @ 12-1 for 8 places
Bet builder option both to finish in the top 8 @ 9-2

[Mike]

Hi
In a follow up to my last post I had always intended to make this thread a link to share information (excel sheets etc) but the technical part has me beaten at present. I have instead sent out a basic data sheet (we use) by email just to see what the reaction would be and to explain how we arrived at last years selections on the “Ridiculous Idea’s for 2025”.
We basically compiled a list of horses which had to meet certain criteria ie had not won a race or been within a set amount of lengths of the winner but had attained a speed rating which matched the possible winning time for the type of race it was set to run in.
For this years thread we are targeting the race first and once again have a shortlist of horses to follow where we are following last years model by looking for a horse to win or place in the race.
However the big difference this year is we are not only looking at horses to win the race but also a second list of horses not to win or even place in the race but to have consistently run times that should see them finish in the top half of the field which opens up the extra markets option.
The reason for posting this on here is that if it starts to work it might just open up the possibility of retrying the Bet Builder option and once more getting together to see if we can work something out. ?

[Mike]

Hi
It looks like the racing will go ahead and all three runners appear to be set to line up. That was the good news the bad news is here is the write up for today’s runners which mentions “Never involved” “Soundly beaten” and “Tailed off”.

Loi Des Jeux Never involved in opening maiden hurdles and now makes handicap debut
Crypto Crash Flat maiden and soundly beaten in opening three runs over hurdles; handicap debutant
Humble Brag Tailed off in opening three m’dens and best watched unless market speaks

Not a confidence inspiring start but sometimes you have to just take a “Leap Of Faith”. Any Indiana Jones fans here..?. I am just hoping this is not my “Last Crusade” and the invisible steps are there to stop me plummeting into the abyss…lol.
I am still waiting for a better offer on a bet builder than the 14-1 for all three to finish in the top 7 (Paddy Power) as I am really looking for top 9.

[Mike]

Hi
Thanks Rob its first race nerves for me tomorrow when we go in on the 2.50 at Clonmel we have snapped up the early price for our first wager which is an each way single. We will miss out on Bog by doing so but I am more than happy with the price.

Loi Des Jeux @ 20-1 for 5 places with bet365

Humble Brag and Crypto Crash are our extra market option horses but as both are around 25-1 for 5 places or 8-1 for 10 places we will await the Bet Builder option before going in with those. ? I will look at offering all of them on the exchange markets but Loi Des Jeux is already attracting some support despite being a reserve.
nb. As a late addition to the original post I failed to explain that the weight carried will play a part in the selection process and I would expect Crypto Crash to be the safer option.

[Mike]

Hi
Lets see if we cannot repeat last weeks result with this weekends super six….?

Cork 12.35 Dawn Coming @ 5-1
Cork 1.05 Spinloa Bay @ 15-8
Southwell 8.00 Daaris @ 6-1
Aston Villa to be leading at H/T & FT v Forest @ 9-5
West Ham to beat Wolves @ 9-5
Arsenal to beat Bournmouth + BTTS @ 15-8

The lottery numbers will be 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi
Whilst I struggle to come up with a new idea here I will start sharing information that works for us and formed the basis of our” Ridiculous Idea for 2025″ thread (which proved to be quite profitable). I have been sharing some excel files with Hopefull and obviously Suds was a co conspirator so if you are excel orientated let me know I can e-mail data sheets etc.
When it comes to speed ratings one thing that did work for us was the course adjustment figures we worked out where finishing times at track such as Killarney can be 7% slower than times at say Galway. Full list is available if required.
We also used to use a going adjustment of say Good = 100 but Heavy = 115 by using the data sheets over several thousand hurdle races it has indicted that we were woefully short here and we have adjusted are ratings as follows.
Good = 100
Good To Yielding = 103
Yielding = 105
Yielding To Soft = 108
Soft = 111
Soft To Heavy = 116
Heavy = 121

[Author]

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