[Mike]

Hi
Here we go again “Eyes down for a Full House”

Leopardstown 1.15 Doctor Steinburg @ 6-4
Sandown 2.40 Kitzbuhel @ 4-5
Leopardstown 2.55 Kargesse @ 7-4
Leopardstown 3.30 Spindleberry w/o Galopin Des Champs @ 9-2
Ospreys -7 to beat Scarlets @ 10-11
Crystal Palace to win or Draw against Nottingham Forest @ 8-11

The lottery numbers will be 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi Andy
If I were making a book on it you would be joint favourite to win this month 🤣 Thanks for posting it’s nice to know you are still following the threads. 👍

[Mike]

Hi
This weekend will see another tight finish for the top spot with the following declared to run.

Leopardstown 1.15 Love Me Tender +12 bonus (Rob, Andy, Joe & Moi)
Sandown 2.40 Kala Conti +15 bonus (Moi)
Leopardstown 2.55 Romeo Coolio +15 bonus (Suds)
Leopardstown 3.30 Galopin Des Champs +20 bonus (Steve & Andy)
Leopardstown 3.30 Gaelic Warrior +20 bonus (Rob, Andy & Joe)
Leopardstown 3.30 Fact To File +20 bonus (Mgame)
Leopardstown 3.30 Inothewayurthinkin +20 bonus (Steve)

Mathematically Andy, Steve, Joe or Mgame could win it and it looks likely to boil down to the 3.30 so once again it will be the last race on the last day of the month which decides it. Best of luck to all those involved and fair warning to those participating please at least be seen to make contact on the site as this is only open to active members.

[Mike]

Hi
I am beginning to feel like an ageing boxer who is making a comeback and stepping up a division in the weights. I am basically getting beaten up on this new thread as although today’s horses finished 7th and 8th at no time did they ever threaten to do anything.
This dropped me 4 points today and puts me on -11.40 at the moment.
I have two going tomorrow over at Limerick but the bet builder on both for 6 places looks likely to be the only option unless I can get a bet without both favorite/s.

2.49 Tiger Twins 18-1
2.49 Nukie’s Artic 200-1
nb
Just taken 1/2 point on Nukies Artic at 45-1 without both dEstruval & Spectaculaur

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Thanks for that I have started dabbling and that has proved extremely helpful. I am somewhat at odds with there ‘Tail End Charlies’ finishing times but I am still playing with those factors and adjusting the weights etc. Steve has come up with very similar times to there’s which are marginally different to mine.
The sectionals will certainly help to identify the front runners which is again going to help with any later adjustments.
As for the ‘Heavy’ going yesterday it has always been something that has been detrimental to my betting schemes/threads and something I am determined to cross off my bucket list along with the exchange markets. ?

[Mike]

Hi
I will go in with the usual 1 point win bet builder on both Dearg Mor and The Dancen Kid both for top a 5 finish @ 17-2.
Also as The Dancen Kid has gone out to 16-1. I will also go 1/2 point each way without both Kobalt St George & Ellies Rock @ 15-2.
It’s risky as both are drifting like barges but it’s early days and you really have to go with the flow on new ideas.

[Mike]

Hi
We have two going tomorrow over at Punchestown and I will be looking for a small bet builder when the markets are available but until then we have one bet for tonight.
3.40 Dearg Mor 25-1 but we will go in at 1 point each way @ 23-2 for 5 places
3.40 The Dancen Kid 11-1
The second horse is looking a little high in the weights but we will reassess the option again tomorrow.

[Mike]

Hi
As the games kick off I will start the thread off with an example of a football ante post bet. Last Friday the relegation battle was all but done and dusted according to the old enemy. But being a life long hammers fan I decided to take a punt against them bring relegated.
The outstanding price to me was Crystal Palace at 28-1 as the club is in turmoil with players wanting to leave, the manager has fallen out with the board etc etc.
As it stands the 20-1 this morning still looks tempting and if they lose today they play Nottingham Forest next which could be a big nail in the coffin for them and a get out jail card for West Ham should they not take all three points.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Thanks I will look into that one I had never really considered sectional timing and it will be another conundrum to ponder. ? However whilst working on the idea another “Baldrick” occurred to me regarding a different factor, which is as you know I always avoid betting on Heavy ground due to the strange results that occur.
With this in mind I am looking at trying out the idea in the 2.25 at Naas today involving the following for top 7 albeit the following list does require a Indy (leap of faith).
Mystic Malina 12-1
Justatan 18-1
Granville Street 50-1

[Mike]

Hi
Unlucky for some today as it looks like Sir Gino will be out for the season but it could have been so much worse. However with The New Lion winning that gave Steve, Andy, Rob and Joe +17.25 points each and as we head towards the final weekend the January leader board looks like this with all still to play for.
Joe +39.74
Steve +35.72
Rob +31.49
Andy +29.60
Doctor Du Mesnil runs on Monday for Suds and Mgame which could help Mgame currently on +21 for the month get back in the mix.
The Grey Dawning fluffed his lines two out which did not help Suds in the cash competition but Sudsie stills heads that on +9.50.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Good timing I was online as you were typing. I am guessing you wish to use the new £5 one as you already have a profit on the last one.
No need to reply unless I have got it wrong. I have placed it with bet365 as they have offered it with a bet boost @ 7-4
Just been checking the log in details and Joe has not been around for a quite a while ? If you are out there Joe log in or drop me a line.

[Mike]

Hi
A couple in again last week but this week for sure we are on six…somethings.

Doncaster 12.40 Highland Crystal @ 11-10
Lingfiled 1.08 Far Too Fizzy @ 1-1
Uttoxeter 1.57 Sunnyvilla @ 7-4
Chletenham 2.25 Flooring Porter w/o Grey Dawning @ 3-1
Cheltenham 3.35 Strong Leader w/o Impose Toi @ 15-8
Cheltenham 4.10 Heads Up @ 9-4

The lottery numbers will be 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi
An interesting topic came up the other day which opened another bag of worms which I thought might be worth a mention on here.
I had via email etc been discussing independently with Suds, Rob and Steve and had also run by the tech department Sean the notion of speed ratings and how much faster does a horse travel over each distance and everybody had a differing opinion.
Now the Tech department Sean (Happy Birthday) will state the obvious undeniable fact that the times do not lie. Suds and I have developed the data base with Sean but have differing opinions over the use of such data. Steve covers most races and distances and Rob tends to deal in the better class of horse.
Now having had numerous sleepless nights over this and having discussed the idea individually as mentioned above the main issues are that the finishing time of the winning horse is the only really reliable yardstick. I know there will be instances where this can be wrong depending on how the race is run but we are generalizing here.
The question for the Bletchley Park team is how do you work out what allowance to make over each distance for horses finishing down the field (out of the frame) This is of particular interest to me as I am already dabbling by trying to work out a speed rating for the horse that finished bang in the middle of each race to use in the bet builders.
The second possibly more interesting conundrum is that are speed ratings and especially weight allowances of greater consequence relevant to the quality of horse. A decent horse from a top yard (See Robs selections) dropping into handicap company may not be slowed down by top weight but the milkmans horse (see my selections) may need all the help he or she can get when running in 0-100. ?

[Mike]

Hi
No joy for me and still at the bottom of the list points wise and being thrashed at my own game….lol.
Tommorow sees a couple of interesting races over at Cheltenham with Sir Gino taking on The New Lion being the main event (competittion wise) as both have a generous following in the competition.
2.25 Grey Dawning (Suds)
3.00 Sir Gino (Steve,Andy, Mgame and Joe)
3.00 The New Lion (Steve,Rob,Andy and Joe)
Both of the above races are +15 point bonus races and Steve Andy and Joe look nailed on either way in the 3.00.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I had also been keeping an eye out for this race as I had Quai De Bourbon running but also bypassed the race as the ground was atrocious and you know my feelings on backing in such conditions.
On the plus side with regard to Jordans and Quai De Bourbon although a tough race I honestly believe most jockeys did the honorable thing here and eased there horses down or pulled up when realising there chance had gone.
I have a feeling theses two will meet again somewhere down the line and I sense a bet builder here or a kit kat challenge….lol.

[Author]

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