[Mike]

Hi Suds
As I said in a previous post it was me that encouraged you to try a new angle which took you away from what a successful thread so blame me but it was a tad unlucky that the first trainer you chose to link with specific jockeys has had a bad run of form. Gavin Cromwell has had 6 of his last 22 NH horses Pull Up but it will come around its just a question of whether you want to continue with it as it stands until the end of the month scrap it or go all in. ?

[Mike]

Hi
A good day today Miss Mini Bee placed at 14-1 and Hillstar Blues won (25-1) but I had only taken 18-1. I usually wait for BOG on my bets but as both of these horses were in a deficit and the outlay was only 1 point each way on both I was happy at the time. Had I waited I could have had the 25-1 but then it would have been borderline as to whether to reduce my stakes. Racing is all “Swings and Roundabouts” but utlimately I am happy with the result.
The profit on the day was +23.40 but more importantly it removed another horse from the list and reduced the deficit on another. I am highlighting this as my jinx horse for this thread is running tomorrow and I swore I would drop this one but with only a month to go and now back up to +190.30 running total I just have to go for it.

Fairyhouse 2.15 Foool Me Once @ 10-1 for 4 places

I am not lost on the irony of the fact that this horse has fooled me five times already but the idea of the thread was to follow them until they win, The bad news is he is already -20 and will be the one big disappointment for me on this thread is if he fools me again tomorrow. The bet will have to 2.5 points each way to clear the deficit and make my 10 point profit (target) per horse….squeeky time.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
These things are unavoidable but I imagine you must be pleased with the way it is going it looks a relatively stress free thread, maybe I should try one of those…lol.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I think its hats off to Hopefull today and I think we definitely have something to work on going forward. I did not get time to post the accumulator made up of our combined efforts and although it would have lost shows the potential options in the thread. It was placed as a “Top 7” again and after Dgalwaygallvinator had been declared a non runner was priced up @ 66-1.

Artctic Piper, Hatfield Hammer, Down ARound, Giant Haystacks, Plunkett Street, Lambay Island and Miss Mini Bee. The bet came out at 66-1 and only missed by one.

I have a busy weekend of updates TFT, Ridiculous Ideas 2025, etc etc but will also be working on the post mortem of this thread to see how we can take this forward. ? So if anyone has an idea or wants to put up another race let me know.

[Mike]

Hi
A big weekend again with all of the following looking likely to run and a few kit kat challenge’s thrown in.

Friday
Catterick 2.25 Greatness Awaits

Saturday
Ascot 1.30 (Bonus Race) Jango Baie v Il Est Francais
2.40 (Bonus Race) Wodhooh
Haydock
3.00 (Bonus Race) Grey Dawning v Haiti Coleurs

Sunday
Punchestown 3.00 (Bonus Race) Fact To File v Gaelic Warrior

[Mike]

Hi
Unfortunately with Dgalwaygallivantor dropping out late morning it has rather upset the apple cart and if it had happened a bit earlier Miss Lia might have got in which several of us had shortlisted. But just for fun I thought I would look at Hopefull’s selections which did not feature Dgalwygallvinator using the top 7 bet builder option.

Plunkett Street
Giant Haystacks
Miss Mini Bee
Lambay Island 10-3

There will be a price deduction on the site bet without Dgallwaygallivantor and I am a bit short of time before the off but will update later.

[Mike]

Hi
There are a couple of runners that at least two of us jointly fancy today and the safest option (lol) would be the following which is a bet builder priced up at 12-5.

Down Around, Giant Haystacks and Dgalwaygallivantor all for a top 7 finish

[Mike]

Hi
Space Warrior finished 4th we wanted 3rd but such is life but the goods news is we finally have something going tomorrow at Thurles assuming the snow doesn’t come in tonight.

2.35 Miss Mini Bee @ 14-1 for 4 places
3.10 Hillstar Blues @ 18-1 for 6 places

[Mike]

Hi
Just bear in mind I am going in totally blind on a handicap race here but having got my excuses already lined up (lol) here goes. It is a new dedicated sheet for handicap races so will adapt as we go along but you have to start somewhere.

2.35 Thurles

Down Around 11-2
Giant Haystacks 15-2
Miss Lia 15-2 (Reserve)
Hatfield Hammer 15-2
Dgalwaygallivantor 9-1
Miss Lia 12-1
Arctic Piper 121-1
Lady Iseult 12-1 (Reserve)
Sphagnum 13-1
Plunkett Street 16-1
Mister Box 16-1
Miss Mini Bee 16-1
No Demand 16-1
Liberated Light 16-1
Lambay Island 25-1
Kazbek 25-1

As you know I struggle a bit with handicap races and I really would not 100% rule out any of these.
But my initial shortlist of ones to look at would be
Hatfield Hammer (Assuming ground dries out)
Down Around
Dgalwaygallavantor
Miss Lia (Reserve at present)
Giant Haystacks
Arctic Piper

[Mike]

Hi
Surprisingly (with the exception of Butch Coolidge) I am not to disappointed with the overall result and can definitely see a trend after just two attempts at this idea. All four of us had West Of Bally the easy winner in the frame Rob had him to win Hopefull had him joint first. Then you have the extra markets which covered 7 places in which Rob had Koolio Kate, Suds and I both had Bangor Lady and Opera Point which at prices of between 25-1 to 66-1 have the scope to be used in bet builders etc. The bet may not have come off but jumping the last they were all in position.
The trend I am seeing is Rob and Hopefull have more of a handle on the horse to win and Suds and myself seem to pull the likley outsiders out for the extra markets.
I would however suggest that now we have tried a Novice dabbled with a no form Maiden that either Suds or Hopefull put up a Handicap race next. ? There are three “Handicap Hurdles” at Thurles on Thursday. ?

[Mike]

Hi
As we are a few points up (in theory) I will take a punt at another “Bet Builder” and risk a point at 14-1 on the following wager.

West Of Bally Top 3
Butch Coolridge Top 3
Opera Point Top 5
Bangor Lady Top 7

[Mike]

Hi
Here are tomorrows predicted odds for the 12.35 which as you can see are not exactly inline with the bookmakers. ?

Loyal Praetorian…. 9-2
Butch Coolidge…… 7-1
West Of Bally……. .15-2
Opera Point……….. 9-1
Changeyourstars ..10-1
Koolio Kate……….. 13-1
Castle Croiuil……. .14-1
Keep The Head…. .14-1
Bangor Lady……… 14-1
Casafirerna………. .16-1
Deanery Charlie….20-1
Golden Order…… ..20-1
Aboras Mahler…. ..20-1
Apalachiyeats…… .20-1
Shanroe Nelson.. ..22-1
Mistyburn…………..25-1
Grey Gardens…….. 33-1

[Mike]

Hi
I do not mean to sidetrack this thread but I have had a lot of queries since Rob and I posted this morning.
The most asked question to date has been how do you compile odds before the bookies odds come out. The simple answer is with great difficulty but here is the simplest example I could come up with featuring today’s graded races at Navan. Graded races rarely have bad runners in them and by simply using there official rating I compiled these odds this morning using just the OR official rating as stated on this mornings race card in the Racing Post.

The Yellow Clay……. 156…. 35…..35.29…. 9-5……..8-15
Jetara……………………146…..25…..25.21…..3-1…….100-30
Maxxum……………….153…..32…..32.27…..85-40….8-1
Colonel Mustard …..146…..25…..25.21….. 3-1……..12-1
Grandero Bello……..123……2…… 2.02…….50-1…….33-1

Dinoblue………………160…. 12……31.43…..11-5……..5-2
Found A Fifty………..164…..16…..42.86…..11-8…….11-8
Captain Guiness……162…..14…..37.14…..13-8……..5-1
Touch Me Not……….150……2……2.86……33-1……..5-1
Hercule Du Seuil…..151……2…… 5.71…….16-1……..14-1

The first column is the actual OR (Official Rating) The second Column is the same rating but reduced by the amount it would take to make the lowest figure 2. In race one it was 121 Grandero Bello OR 123 – 121 = 2. Then reduce the rest of the ratings by the same amount (121). The next figure was simple calculations to achieve a betting market to 120% approximately the same as a bookmaker would use. We then compare the % mark of each runner to a table that gives you the effective odds of each runner.
Yes I know its not that simple and I will send out to anyone who wants a copy of the sheet and further explanation just e-mail me.
I will tidy this post up later but wish to get back to the thread as I have a list of odds to show the flip side of the coin when it all goes wrong.

[Mike]

Hi
A bit of a disaster for Dino Blue followers when he clobbered one in the back straight and with The Yellow Clay not looking race fit it was a funny old day. But at the halfway stage in the November competition the standings are a follows.

Robmull has three winners and 34.94 points
I have two winners and 17.6 points
Mgame and JoeH both have two winners and 8.69 points

Everybody else is off the mark competition wise with at least 4 points and we have another interesting weekend coming up.

[Mike]

Hi
Thanks for that Rob a very incisive piece of work which also highlights the problems of backing in Maiden Races with some form only being available from different codes. We have a similar problem comparing Speed Ratings from the Flat or NHF to hurdle times. ?
This thread has already got me hooked and I am really looking forward to Tuesdays race as Hopefull sent me an Excel sheet last night which also highlighted Loyal Praetorian West Of Bally and Butch Coolridge. Suds will update later but I believe will be along similar lines.
Also with “I’ll Sort That” just beating “Theflyingking” in today’s race that bolsters our predictions from yesterday and I think means it was indeed a very good start to the thread.
This thread is attracting quite a bit of interest and the constant queries I get are what does this mean ? why did you do that ? how did you work that out ?etc etc and it occurred to me to go back to basics. Also if I cannot help Rob is a fountain of information and I am sure will help out when I go wrong or get stuck. The same applies to other members who may specialize in excel etc we can all help each other out here.
I am not sure how you all go about the process but my starting point is a spreadsheet (but obviously pen and paper is fine) The first part is to select a race there are lots of types but basically they fall into two categories Handicap and Non Handicap.
A Non Handicap race is where for instance Usain Bolt and I will run against each other over 100 yards. He gets lucky (My hearing aid battery falls out I don’t hear the starting gun) he wins. But when we meet in a handicap race to give me a chance the handicapper blindfolded’s Usain makes him carry a sofa and gives me a 90 yard head start. !! Yes he still wins but in the second instance you may have been tempted to back me (look up the definition of “Mug Punter” if you were tempted.?).
The main point of the above was to point out that there will be wealth of extra information to assist you in a handicap race but you get a wealth of problems to go with it. The next obvious step is to pick a type of race and start a sheet or sheets up which we can all use and adapt as we go along so we need a list of factors that we think are necessary. I have put up a list on the first post of the thread but for handicaps jockey allowances etc possibly should be considered. ?

[Author]

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