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RobmullParticipantHi folks,
It is not often that I thank my bookmaker, but I will make an exception today, as none of them enticed me to back IL ETAIT TEMPS by offering a worthwhile odds boost and thus saved me a couple of points!!
As for the horse’s performance, he ran flat and to my eye never appeared likely to win, before a tired looking fall at the second last fence, which is another reminder that whilst the form of Willie Mullins’ stable has improved some of his most fancied runners are going missing.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Despite the plethora of good quality races tomorrow, I have struggled to find many opportunities for a bet, except for one horse that is both obvious and even then the bet is contingent on the generosity of the bookmakers who still accept my bets.
The horse in question is IL ETAIT TEMPS in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (3.30 Ascot), who has already twice beaten his main market rival JONBON, including last time out at Sandown, for which my selection recorded the highest RPR awarded this season of 178.
Unfortunately, his current best odds of 4/7 offer no value for a bet, as in my opinion he should be an 8/11 shot at worst.
That said, I strongly suspect that Bet 365 and perhaps at least one of my other bookmakers will offer enhanced odds, probably evens after 9.00 am tomorrow morning, which will be perfectly acceptable.
There will be a maximum stake allowed for each odds boost offered which will determine the size of bet that I can place, so I will update the thread, once my fate is known.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Well, I was spot on with predicting the likely odds as GALAXY STAR was indeed sent off at an SP of 4/1, unfortunately she did not run like a joint second favourite and weakened in the last 2 furlongs to finish a disappointing seventh.
Just a reminder that placing value bets doesn’t necessarily pay the bills in the short term.
Bank balance remains at 92.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
GALAXY STAR looks interesting in the Listed Mares’ Flat Race (2.40 Market Rasen).
4yo runners who are close to the head of the betting have an excellent record in this race, which is hardly surprising as they receive 13 lbs from the older mares. Although she was beaten a head by the other 4yo runner in this race on their latest start, GALAXY STAR is now 7 lbs better off, so should be capable of reversing that form this time around. She also comes out best on adjusted RPRs, which suggest she should hold her own against her elders.
I had expected her to be on offer at around 4/1, so was surprised to see her available at 13/2.
I have therefore invested 0.5 pts to win at 13/2, plus 1.5 pts for a top 5 finish at 5/8 with Bet 365 – fingers crossed she doesn’t drift.
Bank balance now 92.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Sorry, I missed your latest post regarding the antepost thread yesterday.
Linking my antepost activity on this thread to the new antepost thread would seem to be the way forward, but as I struggle with most modern technology (I can’t even master our TV), may I ask that you do the linking for me?
Whilst writing, I thought it would be worthwhile sharing a couple of what appear to be well handicapped Irish trained horses with readers.
I STARTED A JOKE – OR 126 – RPR 135
I can’t take credit for this one, as Keith Melrose highlighted this Charles Byrne trained gelding in the Racing Post. However, I am amazed that the Irish handicapper has only raised him 5 lbs for his maiden hurdle victory at Punchestown on Sunday.
His ultra shrewd trainer, will almost certainly be devising a plan to target one of the big handicap hurdles in the not too distant future and my initial thought was that he would be an ideal candidate for the Listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival over 2 miles in a couple of weeks time, but the trainers comments suggest that he is likely to be upped in trip.
Anyway the gelding has been added to my tracker and I await further developments with interest.
JORDANS – OR 150 – RPR 158
I noticed this chaser when reviewing the early entries for next week’s Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park.
Joseph O’Brien is very much a target trainer, which suggests he has a plan for this classy gelding, who won a Grade 3 and was second in a couple of Grade 1 chases as a novice last year, but has reverted to hurdles for his 2 races so far this season, presumably to protect his handicap rating over fences.
He recorded a career best hurdles RPR of 130 on his last start when finishing 5th in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown after Christmas, so is clearly in good form, so perhaps the plan will culminate with a run at Gowran Park next week.
Either way, he is another one for the tracker.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Despite having been sent off at 10/1, which made my 22/1 win bet appear rather shrewd, ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE was well beaten by the two mares at the top of the betting, but at least she was able to finish in third place, which was always the most likely outcome, to provide a return of 2.60 pts and therefore a profit of 0.60 pts.
Bank balance now 94.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The Mares’ Listed Chase (3.15 Newbury) looks interesting despite there being only 5 runners.
The hit favourite PANIC ATTACK (best odds 1/6) appears to be the proverbial dead cert, whilst the second favourite MOLTO BENE is unbeaten over fences in 2 starts.
However, the runner that has got me interested is ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE, who is rather inconsistent with just a single victory and a couple of placed efforts over fences, but she appreciates good to good to soft ground (career best RPR in chases 127), which matches her closely with MOLTO BENE and puts her well clear of the two rags.
I have therefore invested 0.5 win with Bet 365 at 22/1 BOG (best odds elsewhere 18/1) in the vain hope that she can beat the market leaders, plus 1.5 pts for a top 3 finish at 8/11, which is the more likely scenario.
Bank balance now 92.22 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
There are no major surprises in respect of the entries for the Grade 1 Champion, Mares and Stayers Hurdles at Cheltenham, but the picture is probably likely to remain fuzzy until the final declations for the Championship Hurdle are known on the Sunday prior to the festival, due to both LOSSIEMOUTH and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD also being entered for the Mare Hurdle.
If one or both of these mares line up for the Champion Hurdle, they would provide the biggest threat to current warm favourite SIR GINO as allowing for the mares allowance of 7 lbs, LOSSIEMOUTH is rated 4lbs superior, whilst BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD holds a very significant 9lbs advantage.
Clearly, things could change between now and then, as all the main protagonists are likely to run again before the festival, but even then we will probably be none the wiser as to the target race for each of these mares.
It used to be so much easier before the advent of the Mares Hurdle!!
At least the Stayers Hurdle appears to be a little easier to analyse, albeit the winning machine WODHOOH is doubly entered in this race and the mares hurdle.
My shortlist for Stayers hurdle is very short, as it contains just 3 of the 29 entries, namely BALLYBURN (has a history of playing up and twice beaten by TEAHUPOO this season), TEAHUPOO (one win in the race, but has started favourite on all 3 attempts) and my antepost selection BOB OLINGER (beat TEAHUPOO fair and square last year).
Having taken 14/1 on BOB OLINGER last week, it is pleasing to note that he is now best priced at 9/1 with William Hills and as low as 7/1 with Bet 365.
As for the mares hurdle, the current betting market is a complete minefield, with the top 6 either holding either entries in the Champion, or Stayers hurdles, or currently running in Novice Chases, of these WODHOOH appears to be the most likely to line up for the mares hurdle, but at 7/4 she offers no value.
I am not inclined to add to my antepost portfolio at this stage.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Here are my thoughts in respect of the winners of graded winners last week.
I’LL SORT THAT proved to be very tenacious in winning the rescheduled Grade 1 Novice hurdle at Naas, maintaining his unbeaten record over hurdles, but his RPR of 144 suggests that this was one of the weakest renewal in the past decade. To be honest, I can’t help thinking that his winning run is a product of the moderate quality of this year’s novices over timbre, rather than his latent ability. Based on the fact that he will probably need to improve another 7 lbs at least to be competitive in another Grade 1 novice event during the Spring, I will be looking to oppose him in such events.
EDWARDSTONE proved that age is no barrier to win the Grade 2 chase at Kempton, but was receiving weight from 3 out of form rivals, of which the odds on favourite failed to complete. Life will be tough for this admirable 12yo going forward as he is clearly not capable of winning a Grade 1 and will have to shoulder a penalty in similar lower graded events, but he could be of interest in a top class handicap (Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival) if the BHA handicapper doesn’t increase his OR much above his current figure of 152.
KAPPA JY PYKE recorded a fair win in the Grade 3 Novice Chase at Punchestown on Sunday for which he was awarded an RPR of 151. That figure suggests that he still has a bit to find with this season’s best novice chasers, but this was only his second start over fences, so may be capable of better, especially around 2 1/2 miles, which seems to suit him for the present.
SOBER took the Grade 2 novice hurdle over 2 miles 1/2 furlongs, but his winning RPR of 141 is nothing special when compared with past renewal of this race, or in the context of this year’s novice hurdle performances. That said, he recorded his best flat form over staying distances and would have found this tactical affair over the minimum distance far from ideal. Although I would wish to oppose him over 2 miles, he would be of interest over staying distances, especially as he has shown that he can quicken off a moderate pace.
I will return later with my thoughts in respect of the latest batch of Cheltenham entries which are due to be published at lunch time today.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I thought I was getting too old to start learning new tricks, but I am finally beginning to warm to some strategic antepost wagering, so would be happy to be involved..
Perhaps the antepost thread should be allowed to run throughout the year, as there may be other opportunities to take early prices outside of the Cheltenham to Punchestown Festival window, including dare I say flat races!!
It is interesting that as far as I am aware none of the major bookmakers have started offering NRNB odds for Cheltenham, which suggests that they are still doing brisk business at standard term, it what is proving to be a fairly open group of races, without many short price favourites.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Although there are a couple of graded novice events at Punchestown today, nothing stands out out as a betting opportunity, so I will pass and try to unravel a conundrum that has been playing on my mind since just after Christmas.
That conundrum is just why INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN remains joint favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, despite producing a couple of shocking performances so far this season?
To be honest I was surprised that he won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last year and his winning RPR of 182 is a complete outlier, when you look at his other performances over fences.
His overall record in chases is not outstanding being 3 wins from 12 starts, with his next best RPR being a moderate 163, which suggests that based on his other 11 runs over fences he is probably a Grade 2/3 performer at best.
That said, he does appear to run record his best efforts in March/April – 3 wins from 3 attempts, 2 at Cheltenham and 2 at Grade 1, with RPRs of 160, 160 and 182, which suggests that he will improve on what he has done so far this season.
He was ridden by Mark Walsh for both his Grade 1 victories, so his chance of running well at this year’s festival will probably be enhanced if Mark is in the saddle, albeit the partnership could only produce a poor RPR of 128 when well beaten at Leopardstown over Christmas.
It is interesting to note that in both seasons since he started to run over fences, he has improved his RPR by 19 lbs in the Spring when compared with his best efforts prior to the new year.
If he follows the same this year, he is likely to run to a RPR of around 147, which will clearly not be good enough to win the most prestigious chase of the season.
In my opinion, if he hadn’t won the Gold Cup last year, I would suggest that he would be currently trading antepost at 66/1, or even bigger, not the 6/1 best odds that are currently on offer.
The final piece of the jigsaw will be how her performs in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown at the end of this month – last year he recorded his second best RPR of 163, but to achieve a similar improvement on this season’s form he will need a massive uplift of around 35 lbs – not impossible, but probably unlikely.
Based on the above analysis, I would be looking to lay him for a place in the Gold Cup, but unfortunately that is not a market that is available with Bet 365 at this stage.
All the best,
Rob.
However, a 19 lbs
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Laying KALIF DU BERLAIS proved to be profitable, but I would have preferred to have lost my money rather than watch him unseat his rider and suffer fatal injuries – RIP KALIF DU BERLAIS and my commiserations to his connections for their loss.
That said, I have no sympathies for the animal rights protesters who wish to ban horse racing, as they fail to understand that if racing is banned, there will be very little point in continuing to breed thoroughbred racehorses, which over time will lead to many more racehorses being culled and mistreated due to lack of funds.
Most racehorses are well treated and probably live an enjoyable life, albeit there is a small risk of injury and/or an untimely death, but surely that is better than having never been born.
Anyway, I shall now step down from my soap box.
Bank balance back up to 94.22 pts ( with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Although there are only 4 runners lining up for the Grade 2 Chase over 2 miles 4 1/2 furlongs at Kempton which is scheduled for 2.40 tomorrow, it provides an interesting betting opportunity.
The current odds on favourite is KALIF DU BERLAIS, who is a Grade 1 winner over fences, having scored in the 2 mile novice event at last year’s Grand National Festival held at Aintree.
Whilst he won that race comfortably, I felt that he would be worth opposing in the near future and he duly failed to justify favouritism at Exeter on his seasonal debut, finishing fourth, some 23 lengths behind the winner.
I am keen to take him on again tomorrow, as he finished last of 4 runners on his only previous attempt at around 2 1/2 miles, plus his record when racing right handed is 0/3 whilst he has won on each of the 3 occasions he has raced left handed.
Finally, he had the lowest Adjusted RPR of the 4 runners, so will probably need a career best performance and it is 9 weeks since he last ran, which suggests he may have endured a few training issues.
I have therefore invested 2 pts on him not winning with Bet 365 at evens.
Bank balance now 90.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
CLASSICAL CREEK ran a shocker finishing 51 lengths behind the winner I’LL SORT THAT, so a loss of 2 pts on the day.
Perhaps a pattern is emerging, as both of his wins under rules were achieved when he was able to get an easy lead, whilst his previous defeat came when he was unable to get to the front.
Bank balance remains at 92.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).
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