[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Interesting that you build in an over round for your tissue prices, as the VALUE CALCULATOR always produces a 100% book, so it is unlikely that our figures will agree for any runner – not a problem, but good to understand any discrepancies.

As we now have just 7 runners, I have recalculated the VC odds, as follows:

KALYPSO’CHANCE – 15/8
ECLIPSE CHASER – 3/1
THE BIG CLUBMAN – 8/1
BLUE WATERS – 8/1
FRANKIE JOHN – 18/1
WALKS IN JUNE – 18/1
PHOENIX ARIZONA – 45/1

The only real outlier is WALKS IN JUNE, which I know should be a lot shorter on the VC figures, but I can’t start tweaking the inputs for just one runner at this stage of the experiment.

I am struggling to find a bet, but based on the VC figures I will go with:

Betbuilder – KALYPSO’CHANCE (top 2 finish) and THE BIG CLUBMAN (top 4 finish) @ 3/1

Top 4 finish – BLUE WATERS @ 5/4

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A couple of selections for today at Navan:

11.47 – WACKESTONE – 11 pts for 6 places @ 2/15
12.17 – FLASHAWAY – 11 pts for 10 places @ 10/11

All the best,

Rob..

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Interesting to compare our separate tissues, although I think you have lost MA JACKS HILL?

Our tissues seem to have very differing views regarding the chance of WALKS IN JUNE (15/2 vs 33/1).

I will return with my selection(s) once the alternative markets are available.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As promised, here are the true odds for each of the 10 runners based on the VALUE CALCULATOR, in racecard order:

I’LL SORT THAT – 10/3

ECLIPSE CHASER – 11/2

FRANKIE JOHN – 33/1

KALYPSO’CHANCE – 4/1

MA JACKS HILL – 13/2

PHOENIX ARIZONA – 80/1

THE BIG CLUBMAN – 12/1

THEFLYINGKING – 33/1

WALKS IN JUNE – 33/1

BLUE WATERS – 12/1

In my opinion the figures for both the FLYINGKING and especially WALKS IN JUNE vastly underestimate their chance of winning, but I can’t start tweaking the VC without understanding the issues with the current methodology.

That said, the two runners that appear to have been underestimated by the Bookmakers and may provide us with some value in the alternative markets are MA JACKS HILL and BLUE WATERS, who are currently available at 16/1 and 33/1 respectively.

Hope this information is of assistance,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Both SUPREMELY WEST (fifth) and CERENDIPITY (fourth) were disappointing, but just managed to do enough to provide positive returns for a profit of 2.7 pts on the day.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I had 5 selections lined up for Navan today, but have been scuppered due to the meeting being cancelled.

However, I have salvaged a couple of bets, as follows:

2.55 Chelt: SUPREMELY WEST – 5 pts for 5 places @ 1/7 (placed at 6.20 pm on Friday)
3.43 Weth: CERENDIPITY – 5 pts for 4 places @ 10/21 (placed at 6.20 pm on Friday)

Good luck everyone..

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

My basic ttrends analysis based on past results suggest that this is not a race for outsiders, so in all likelihood the winner and placed runners will come from the top 3 in the betting.

I have a shortlist of 3 runners based on the trends, which are listed below in race card order:

ECLIPSE CHASER
MA JACKS HILL (declared to run on Saturday – so possible non runner)
WALKS IN JUNE

I will provide tissue odds either Saturday evening, or Sunday morning, once we have a better idea of the final field and going.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Great – don’t worry – this is going to be an experiment for all of us.

I will post a short list of likely runners based on past trends and tissue odds using the VALUE CALCULATOR, both of which are likely to need tweaking as we gain experience.

Mike – yes Sunday’s race.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi guys,

What about trying the 1.22 race at Navan, which is a novice hurdle with 9 runners, all of which have previous hurdling experience?

Should provide us with a good start for this experiment, but not be too onerous with only 9 runners to consider.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Greetings from a very soggy Cheltenham – glad that we are not going to the racecourse today.

No selection again today, so it has been a very quite week, but hopefully there will be more activity going forward (could have 6 or 7 selections tomorrow).

Here’s a quick update on how things stand on this thread since launch date:

Winners: 14 – Bets: 15 – Strike Rate: 93.3%

Stakes: 125 pts – Returns: 145.2 pts – Profit 20.2 pts – Return On Investment: 16.2%

So far this month the system has surpassed both the 90% winners and the 10% ROI targets, but it is still early days.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I have no problem with using Maiden Hurdles as the starting point, but wondered whether we could stretch to Novice Hurdles, for a couple of reasons:

Firstly, there tend to be fewer runners, therefore quicker and easier to analyse.

Secondly, most if not all runners will have run over hurdles, so should be covered by the database.

I also have a quick question regarding going allowances – are you using the official going as reported by the course, or the going used by Topspeed in the RP, which often differ – see Clonmel on Thursday and Naas on Sunday – could make quite a significant difference to the speed figures?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Second place for DERRYHASSEN PADDY has provided a small profit of 0.9 pts for today.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi guys,

I will be happy to fit in with the consensus, but have a few ideas that may be worth considering:

1. Perhaps we should concentrate on one race type to start with – whichever plays best to the strengths of the database?

2. Perhaps we should start slowly and work on just one or two target races per week, until we understand how long it takes to provide our input?

3. Regarding input, it may be worth agreeing what analysis each individual will be responsible for, so that we can minimise duplication of effort – I am more than happy to provide a shortlist of runners that are likely to perform well based on some simple metrics from previous runnings of the races in question, plus an odds tissue based on the VALUE CALCULATOR.

4. We try to identify the target races at the earliest opportunity, ideally at the four day entry stage, or at the latest as soon as the final declarations are posted on the Racing Post website, so that we have sufficient time to complete our analysis.

Look forward to reading additional ideas.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It looks likely that most of the system selections will be concentrated over the weekend this week, albeit I do have one for tomorrow at Ayr.

2.50 – DERRYHASSEN PADDY – 5 pts for 2 places @ 1/6

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi guys,

I fully support Mike’s proposal to limit access to this thread and will have a look to see whether I can tweak the VALUE CALCULATOR to make it more relevant to Irish Hurdle races.

Shouldn’t be too difficult for open Graded/Listed events and handicaps (albeit a little time consuming for big field events) and I will have another crack at overcoming the issues with novice/maiden races.

All the best,

Rob.

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