[Robmull]

Hi Folks,

2 out of 3 today with each way returns on both ISRAR and CHIEFOFCHIEFS for a small 0.4 pt profit, but unfortunately REACH THE MOON could only finish second.

Anyone brave enough to back both each way selection in a double would have made a nice profit of just over 4 pts.

I have 4 selections for tomorrow, but was pleased to have backed them all earlier this afternoon, as the 3 at Royal Ascot have all shortened due to being tipped up in the Racing Post.

2.30 Ascot – MAWJ @ 2/1 BOG (I took 10/3)
4.20 Ascot – DISCOVERIES each way @ 8/1 BOG with 4 places (I took 10/1)
5.00 Ascot – FRESH HOPE each way @ 7/1 with 7 places (I took 10/1)

7.25 Limerick – RAISE YOU @ 11/10 BOG

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

This is weird, as my posts are accepted on some occasions and rejected at other times.

Selections for tomorrow are:

3.05 Ascot – ISRAR (each way at 8/1 with 6 places).

5.35 Ascot – REACH THE MOON (4/7)

6.10 Ascot – CHIEFOFCHIEFS (each way at 16/1 with 7 places)

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike/Joe,

Yes it was a good set of results today.

I did try to post my selections earlier this evening, but again encountered problems, if this post is accepted, I will try again.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

First day of Royal Ascot for which I have 3 selections, albeit the first 2 are blatantly obvious, albeit perversely I still believe that they offer a bit of value event at best odds of 1/5 and 4/5 respectively.

2.30 Ascot – BAAEED

4.20 Ascot – COROEBUS

However, I think I have also found a nice each way shot to nothing @ 8/1 with 5 places on offer.

5.35 Ascot – JUAN ELCANO

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

My lottery number will be 14.

For my horse racing selection, I will go for one against the odds on favourite HONITON, who appears to be a bit exposed after 4 career starts in the 4.35 at Sandown, tomorrow.

FINDONO is the only 4yo in the race so has to give weight for age to all of his 11 rivals in this race, but has finished third on both of his starts, so he clearly has ability, whilst Jamie Spencer is just the jockey to navigate what could prove to be a tricky draw in Stall 12.

Good luck everyone.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I would like to join in the fun, but have not been an active member for some time now, so will understand if you give preference to regular contributors.

Cheers,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I am no closer to narrowing down my selections for the Cheltenham Festival, but have spent a fair bit of time reading the thoughts of a number of pundits and undertaking plenty of background analysis, so at least I feel that I am making some progress.

In particular, I have undertaken further analysis regarding the Gigginstown, Gordon Elliott combination to identify key race types, linked to the use of certain jockeys.

I have also identified a number of preferences for the top jockeys based on race types (hurdles/fences), course (old or new) and grade of race (Grade 1, Handicaps and other lower grade non handicaps), which I hope will provide a useful angle.

I see you have selected WHISKEY SOUR for the Randox County Hurdle, which is a race in which Willie Mullins has a strong record, he is certainly an interesting contender, especially if he ends up being ridden by Paul Townend, who is rather a specialist at the festival when riding over the smaller obstacles.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

You have got well ahead of me on this thread and I doubt that I will be able to chat he up in the near future.

However, I have a few comments which may be worth considering, as follows:

Coral Cup

As with the Ultima Handicap Chase, I have a few alternative trends which may assist us to unravel this conundrum:

No older than 8 years – 10/10

Last ran at least 30 days ago – 9/10

SP no shorter than 12/1 – 9/10 (not easy to assess in advance of the race).

Carried at least 11.02 – 5/6

Top 2 finish last time – 6/10

French bred – 5/10 for level stake profit of 31.00 pts (all 5 winners aged 7 years, or younger).

Cross Country Chase

It may be worth noting that this race has only been a Conditions event since 2016, having previously been framed as a handicap.

Therefore, it may be not be appropriate to apply the trends to this year’s race.

In reality, barring accidents it appears that TIGER ROLL has strong claims in his attempt to retain his crown, albeit current best odds of 5/4 are in my opinion far to short to consider a bet at this stage.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Just had a quick look at ANNIE ODDS and I doubt that I would have considered her on Thursday, so your air of mysticism remains intact.

I rarely even bother looking at Novice Handicap Hurdles, or Chases at any meeting as there is generally too little form for me to feel comfortable, plus the VALUE CALCULATOR tends to struggle in these races, so I doubt that I will be getting involved in the Close Brothers sponsored event.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

When I get around to analysing the Ultima Handicap Chase, I shall start by applying some of the following trends to reduce the number of horses that I have to consider in more detail.

Previous Cheltenham Festival run – 10/10

Days since last run no more than 45 – 9/10

Official Rating no lower than 142 – 8/10

No more than 9 chase starts – 8/10

Aged 6-8 years – 8/10

Last ran over at least 3 miles – 8/10

In addition, it is worth noting that last time out winners have been successful in 4 of the past 10 renewals, from 42 qualifiers for a level stake profit of 15.00 pts.

Will be interesting to see how our shortlists compare, as some of the above trends sort of contradict a few of those which you have quoted – both views are correct, but consider the underlying stats from a different perspective.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

We have another partial match in the JLT Novices’ Chase, as my current list of interesting horses is a follows:

DEFI DU SEUIL (10/3)

KIDISART (16/1)

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (25/1)

VINNDICATION (12/1)

My only concern for KIDISART is that he is prone to jumping errors, but he certainly has a big engine and could be top class if he learns to jump consistently well.

As for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle, I have not undertaken any analysis on the individual entries, but all 3 previous winners were trained by Willie Mullins and started favourite.

He doesn’t appear to have a hotpot this year, but he has a host of entries and I would not be surprised if he trained the winner again this time, perhaps at tasty odds, the trouble is which mare?

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

This is the first time that I have looked at the Champion Bumper, so I applied the following four trends:

Age 5/6
Won lto
Won Bumper worth at least £/€ 4K
Won Bumper with 13 or more runners

These trends usually produce a shortlist of 6 or more entries, so I was a bit surprised when only 2 of this year’s entries have made it through these tests:

ENVOI ALLEN (5/1)

SANTA ROSSA (25/1)

ENVOI ALLEN has strong claims and to be honest 5/1 is not a bad price, but the mare SANTA ROSSA is really interesting, based on the fact that she will receive 7lbs from the males and we should not forget that the fairer sex have won the last 2 renewals.

It is also worth noting that she has finished both of her races strongly, which suggests that she will appreciate the stiff uphill finish – whether she wins, or not 25/1 NRNB seems very fair.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Our thoughts diverge on this race, as my initial list consists of:

DELTA WORK (7/2)

MORTAL (33/1)

ON THE BLIND SIDE (20/1)

TOPOFTHEGAME (5/1)

I have no preference at this stage and to be honest this is one of the races in which I am least likely to have a bet, albeit it is always informative for the future.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

We clearly have very different approaches when considering our investments at the Cheltenham Festival, but as the saying goes, “there are many ways to skin a cat”.

My current list of horses of interest consists of 5 entries, albeit this will undoubtedly change over the next month, as I gradually formulate my final shortlist:

CITY ISLAND (10/1)

COMMANDER OF FLEET (14/1)

DOWNTOWN GETAWAY (25/1)

DUNVEGAN (33/1)

JARVEYS PLATE (25/1)

Most of these have shown their best form on G/S, or faster ground, so slower conditions may find them out.

If I had to nail my colours to the mast at this stage, I would probably go with COMMANDER OF FLEET, who already has a Grade 1 win under his belt and seemed to handle Yielding to Soft when comfortably winning a valuable Bumper at the Punchestown Festival last year.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I like your betting strategy and staking plan, as stake returned for just 2 places and profit if selections are more successful is a good position to be in.

If you rate SHARJAH as an each way selection in the Champion Hurdle, then you might wish to consider LEONCAVALLO in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, if racing is allowed to resume after the Equine Flu scare.

LEONCAVALLO finished 3rd in the Galway Hurdle and that effort has been franked as follows:

Sharjah (Won) – OR now 17 lbs higher after 2 Grade 1 victories.

Bedrock (4th) – OR now 13 lbs higher after victories at G3 and G2 level.

Le Richebourg (5th) – has subsequently won 2 Grade 1 Novice Chases and OR over fences now 19 lbs higher than his hurdle mark.

LEONCAVALLO’s OR is now 3 lbs higher, but booking of 5lb Claimer for Saturday negates that rise, which suggests that he should be of interest from a purely handicapping perspective at around 14/1 for the Betfair Hurdle.

All the best.

Rob.

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