[Mike]

Hi
Just the two so far this weekend both for Saturday, which are as follows

Ascot 3.35 Jonbon (Mgame)
Gowran Park 1.20 Kawaboomga (Moi)

[Mike]

Hi
Having posted about trying to crack the “Heavy Ground” conundrum I noticed another member having one pulled up the other day after specifically mentioning the ground issues. Therefore now I have got my thread back on track I will start looking back into this and will throw the topic out there for input.
I will split our data base down looking for heavy ground time differentials and post if anything interesting comes out of it.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
We are looking at options to secure this thread but in the meantime would suggest anyone who is loathe to give away trade secrets for fear of having loopholes closed down use the The Bletchley Park Gang thread and I can link the article to that and just post the results on here. ?

As is stands I have scoured all the markets in the Liverpool v Man City game and can come up with only a few very basic fail safes resulting in very little reward.
This is probably because the old enemy is very adept at cornering the market (no pun intended) when it comes to football offers. In this instance I would ignore the bet boosts just take the 2 point free bet and go with your instinct. My opinion for this thread would be both teams desperately need all three points and I can see it being a hectic game.

BTTS in both halves
Both Teams over 4.5 corners
Both teams to receive a card

This works out at 24.97 so we are looking for a dream 50 point win (no stakes involved returns or losses).

[Mike]

Hi
Hesgonethatway has restored my faith as I was running a postmortem as to what had gone wrong to date (mostly my bad choices) when he popped in (advised @14-1) to give me a nice +16.80 profit on the day. This on top of our 9-1 win on Puma’s Dream the other day has turned a struggling -14.60 thread into a +8 point profit.
I will post a breakdown of the bets at the end of the month or when I get five minutes but needless to say I am a very relieved birthday boy. I will admit I was beginning to have my doubts over the new thread.
I will continue with the postmortem as we are not out of the woods yet and I have already seen a glaring mistake on my behalf.
I can see nothing of interest until Tuesday at present so have a bit of time to finish looking through my early schoolboy errors and hopefully its on-wards and upwards from here on in.

[Mike]

Hi
As expected all three runners duly trotted up today which leaves G (Mgame) in a fairly unassailable position for the monthly prizes.

Mgame +75.84 (5 x Wins)
Suds +40.44 (2 x Wins)
Joe +33.59 (2 x Wins)

As for the overall competition this is still wide open as we head towards Cheltenham.

Joe +172.60
Mgame +168.49
Suds +149.51
Rob +137.96

[Mike]

Hi
Quite a few firms are offering free bets or money back offers on the Liverpool v Man City game tomorrow so if there are any mathematicians out there who want to have dabble go for it. I will do the same as before but need a bit of time to work out (what appear to be) the safest option.

[Mike]

Hi
Here are this weeks magnificent six which hopefully will run as we had three non runners last week.

Naas 1.05 Kilmeaden w/o Highland Crystal @ 2-1
Lingfield 1.45 Francesi @ 5-2
Newbury 2.10 L’Homme Presse @ 11-8
Newbury 2.45 Saint Segal w/o Lulumba @ 11-8
Naas 2.50 Half A Chance w/o Moudan @ 9-4
Naas 4.00 Uhavemeinstitches w/0 Dinoblue @ 5-2

The lottery numbers will be 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi
Just the one tomorrow which is a To follow horse and Bet365 have opened up with double figure odds which is markedly different to anyone else’s so I have gone in straigh away without waiting for BOG.

Naas 2.50 Hesgonethatway 14-1 for 4 places 1 point each way

[Mike]

Hi
There are going to be limited options to pick up any more points for this months competition as we are getting close to the Festival meeting at Cheltenham and the majority of the horses on our list will be entered to run there. So this weekend could be one of the last chances for a few of the big guns to get a run in and there are three going which are as follows.

Naas 4.00 Dino Blue +12 (Steve ,Andy, Mgame & Joe)
Newbury 2.10 Haiti Coulers +12 (Rob)
Newbury 2.45 Lulumba +4 (Mgame, Joe & Moi)

All three are well fancied and should pick up points but if both Mgames horses come in G’s new total would be hard to beat.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Thanks..In theory it was a shot to nothing but as it worked out both bets came in as we combined our opinion on the match with two differing options that gave us the opportunity for a profit if either came in but also that both could come in.
I will go into detail if required tomorrow but for now the simple facts are we won +5 points with the Paddy Power bet and we also picked up +4.5 points on the bet365 wager so double bubble.
This gives the thread a +9.5 point start and as it is open to active members as a joint thread please feel free to give it go if you see anything that you think is relatively fool proof.
If you look at Ridiculous Ideas for 2026 the wager on Pumas Dream today it also provided a profit today but that was simply a bookmakers error that was we thought was worth a punt. But hopefully it gives you another idea of we are looking at on here. ?

[Mike]

Hi
I will point out that there is no guaranteed wins and there are T&C’s attached but if you already have an opinion on a game the use of such offers can be very productive. I had been of the opinion there would be tries tonight as France have scored a minimum of 19+ points and Ireland 13 + points individually in there last eight matches.
France have home advantage and are flying high so Ireland could be in for a tough night.
With this in mind I have gone 5 points for France -13 to win @ 1-1 (money back with Paddy Power) then I have gone 4 points on Ireland +27.5 to win with over 4 tries and more tries than penalties scored in the game @ 11-10 (plus a 25% price boost) obviously with Bet 365.
The only thing that could go wrong (in theory) tonight is a low scoring game with converted penalties deciding the game.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Strangely I had just started working on the stats for the Festival Plate and Donnacha ticks all the boxes, especially now that I can see him being rated in the future around the 139 mark. I will put a direct link to your last post into the Ante Post Wagers (if thats ok). ?

[Mike]

Hi
Puma’s Dream 9-1 saved a few blushes by winning today and although Journey So Far let us down, with Anodandawink being a non runner that actually helped us out with the doubles etc.
This has given us a +5.60 return on the day and taken us back down to -8-80 which is a great relief. However the biggest take out for me today was the error made by Paddy Power when pricing without the second favorite as they have done this before and I will looking for this again.
With this in mind I know Suds had been pondering a thread along similar lines so keep an eye for that one.

[Mike]

Hi
Novice mistake last night as I did not notice Anodandawink was third reserve. But we have that ridiculous Bet Bulder wager in the 2.52 which will probaly compound the problem but here goes.

2.52 Puma’s Dream top 4 Nukies Artic Top 7 @ 9-2

[Mike]

Hi
Ridiculously (but I am not complaining) Paddy Power are offering Pumas Dream currently 8-1 @ 9-1 betting without Vitorio Piel. ?
This has prompted me to go in tonight with a !/2 point each way single on Pumas Dream and three 1/2 point each way doubles on the following selections.

1.42 Journey So Far @ 16-1 for 5 places
2.52 Pumas Dream @ 9-1 for 3 places
4.02 Anodandawink @ 12-1 for 5 places

This is a risky option points wise for the second day running but I still feel bad for not having the “cojones” to go for it yesterday.

[Author]

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