[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Laying KALIF DU BERLAIS proved to be profitable, but I would have preferred to have lost my money rather than watch him unseat his rider and suffer fatal injuries – RIP KALIF DU BERLAIS and my commiserations to his connections for their loss.

That said, I have no sympathies for the animal rights protesters who wish to ban horse racing, as they fail to understand that if racing is banned, there will be very little point in continuing to breed thoroughbred racehorses, which over time will lead to many more racehorses being culled and mistreated due to lack of funds.

Most racehorses are well treated and probably live an enjoyable life, albeit there is a small risk of injury and/or an untimely death, but surely that is better than having never been born.

Anyway, I shall now step down from my soap box.

Bank balance back up to 94.22 pts ( with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Although there are only 4 runners lining up for the Grade 2 Chase over 2 miles 4 1/2 furlongs at Kempton which is scheduled for 2.40 tomorrow, it provides an interesting betting opportunity.

The current odds on favourite is KALIF DU BERLAIS, who is a Grade 1 winner over fences, having scored in the 2 mile novice event at last year’s Grand National Festival held at Aintree.

Whilst he won that race comfortably, I felt that he would be worth opposing in the near future and he duly failed to justify favouritism at Exeter on his seasonal debut, finishing fourth, some 23 lengths behind the winner.

I am keen to take him on again tomorrow, as he finished last of 4 runners on his only previous attempt at around 2 1/2 miles, plus his record when racing right handed is 0/3 whilst he has won on each of the 3 occasions he has raced left handed.

Finally, he had the lowest Adjusted RPR of the 4 runners, so will probably need a career best performance and it is 9 weeks since he last ran, which suggests he may have endured a few training issues.

I have therefore invested 2 pts on him not winning with Bet 365 at evens.

Bank balance now 90.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

CLASSICAL CREEK ran a shocker finishing 51 lengths behind the winner I’LL SORT THAT, so a loss of 2 pts on the day.

Perhaps a pattern is emerging, as both of his wins under rules were achieved when he was able to get an easy lead, whilst his previous defeat came when he was unable to get to the front.

Bank balance remains at 92.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).

[Robmull]

Hi Hopefull,

Congratulations on finding the winner and taking 9/1.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Fingers crossed that Naas passes the inspection tomorrow morning, as there is Grade 1 action at 1.43, namely the Ballymore Novice Hurdle, which is run over 2 miles and 4 furlongs.

This race has been won by plenty of future stars, so it tends to take some winning, albeit this year’s ten strong field have yet to show the same level of form as the previous winners had achieved prior to winning this event.

Although Willie Mullins is responsible for the 2 market leaders, I am wary of the stable’s form and have chosen Gordon Elliott’s first string CLASSICAL CREEK.

His PTP debut victory was impressive (RPR 95) and he also showed strong form in a couple of Bumpers, prior to winning on his debut over hurdles (RPR 135), which suggests that he has the scope to go much further, albeit I suspect we won’t see him at his best until he jumps fences.

Although he offers a little value at 4/1 to win, I am not overly confident as there are plenty of potential improvers in the field, so have invested 0.5 pts win at 4/1 and 1.5 pts for a top 5 finish at 1/3 with Bet 365.

Bank balance now 92.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Sounds interesting and more than happy to assist when required.

Good luck with this project.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having spent most of the afternoon reviewing the initial entries for the 3 Grade 1 chases at the Cheltenham Festival, I have a couple of take outs to share.

FACT TO FILE has only been entered for the Ryanair Chase, which he won by 9 lengths last year. In my opinion this makes complete sense as although he has won over 3 miles 1/2 furlongs at Cheltenham, that was a fairly slowly run race against moderate opposition, since when he has appeared as a non stayer at the distance.

DINOBLUE has not been entered in any of the Grade 1 chases, which implies that she will be targeted to retain her Grade 2 Mares’ Chase crown, in which case her current best odds of 5/2 appear reasonable.

Both runners appear to hold strong claims in their respective races and as both can be backed antepost at 5/2 (1/5 odds for 3 places) with Bet 365, it is worth placing a 1pt each way double.

Bank balance now 94.22 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A few thoughts regarding the results of last week’s graded races.

KABRAL DU MATHAN – progressive, but was entitled to win Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham, but RPR of 155 was nothing special, plus trainer and jockey both mentioned concerns in respect of him tackling 3 miles at this stage in his career, so I will be keen to oppose him in Grade 1 events over extended trip for the rest of this season.

DINOBLUE – did enough at Fairyhouse to beat two outclassed rivals over a distance beyond her ideal trip. Her winning RPR of 151 was moderate compared with her career best figure of 166, but she is highly likely to dominate graded chases restricted to mares during the Spring. She has strong claims in respect of retaining her Mares’ Chase crown at the Cheltenham festival, but antepost odds of 5/2 offer little value as she has other Grade 1 entries, at present.

HEART WOOD – admirably consistent and won Grade 3 chase at Thurles with authority, but past performances at the highest level suggests that he should be opposed in future Grade 1 chases, but considered for support when talking lesser opposition.

Looking forward to reviewing the first set of entries for the Cheltenham Festival later today.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having read Tom Segal’s Racing Post “Two For The Tracker” email on Saturday evening, I was pleased to see that he was recommending that readers make note of my TTF selection ANZADAM, despite the gelding only finishing fourth in the Grade 1, December Hurdle at Leopardstown on 29 December.

The gelding ran far too freely that day with Patrick Mullins in the saddle, but looked like a true Grade 1 performer, until tiring in the closing stages of the race, which was hardly surprising as he must have used up plenty of energy during the first half of the race, before pulling 6 lengths clear by the time he reached the third hurdle from home.

If Willie Mullins can either get the gelding to settle, or train him to relax as a front runner, he could prove to be a major contender for the Champion Hurdle, as his career best RPR over hurdles of 159, which he equalled in the Leopardstown race is only 4 lbs inferior to that of the current 6/4 favourite SIR GINO, yet ANZADAM is currently available at 33/1.

The Champion Hurdle is usually run at a strong pace, which should help ANZADAM to settle, so I couldn’t resist having an ante post investment of 1pt each way (1/5 odds for 3 places) with Bet 365, as I suspect that this is his only viable target at the festival and he is likely to be a few points shorter on the day.

Betting Bank now 96.22 pts (with 4.0 pts of ante post bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing of interest in the way of selections for today, but I think it worth sharing the following information which may assist everyone when considering bets over the next couple of weeks.

I do not intend to speculate on the reasons why the all conquering Willie Mullins’ stable appears to be suffering a dip in form, based on the strike rates for November and December 2025 of 20% and 14%, respectively.

These are the lowest strike rates seen during the past 5 seasons, albeit some of the stable’s winning stalwarts over the Christmas period, posted career best RPRs, such as LOSSIEMOUTH (RPR 160) and GAELIC WARRIOR (RPR 174).

I suspect that the stable’s strike rates will improve at some stage during the the next month or so, but I will be wary of backing any of the stable’s representatives until I see some positive evidence.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I feel as if I have dodged a bullet with LUCKY PLACE, as I totally misread the market by taking 9/2 last night, thinking that he would end up around 3/1, whereas he drifted to as big as 15/2, before shortening to 11/2 at the off.

In light of the significant drift I had visions of a complete blow out for the selection, but at least he scrabbled a third place finish for a small profit of 0.22 pts, so no damage done in the end.

Bank balance now 98.22 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your kind comments.

I am not a lover of antepost betting and would normally probably wait until the day of the race to get involved, but 14/1 on BOB OLINGER was worth a punt, especially as the Stayers’ Hurdle is almost certain to be his only target at the Festival, so no need to consider which race he will run in and his NRNB odds will probably be around 8/1.

I had a thorough look at 4 races tomorrow, but could only find one horse worth a punt.

LUCKY PLACE won the Relkeel Hurdle (2.35 Cheltenham) last year and whilst he has disappointed twice over fences this season, he should appreciate the return to hurdles and represents some value against the odds on favourite, so I have gone with 0.5 pts win @ 9/2 (Boosted Odds), plus 1.5 pts for a top 3 finish @ 10/21, both with B365.

Bank balance now 96 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Me again!!

I don’t usually get involved in antepost betting, but I couldn’t resist investing 1 pt each way (1/5th odds for 3 places) on BOB OLINGER with Bet 365 who have boosted his odds from 10/1 to 14/1 for the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Although he will be officially 11 years old tomorrow, he has not been overly raced, having just 20 career starts. He has won on each of his previous visits to the track, including the Stayers Hurdle last year where he beat the current favourite TEAHUPOO and recorded a career best RPR of 166.

His seasonal debut at Leopardstown on Sunday when finishing second behind TEAHUPOO was very promising as although he was beaten 7 lengths, he recorded an RPR of 160, which is his best effort away from his beloved Cheltenham.

Fingers crossed that he remains sound and makes it to Cheltenham, where I can see him galloping to the line, in a race where many of his main market rivals have questions to answer regarding either stamina and/or track suitability.

Bank balance now 98 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is quite a while since I posted to this thread, as I have been thinking through why the system turned from profitable to loss making in such a short period of time.

During my absence I have been paper trading the system selections, which have continued to show little in the way of encouragement.

The fact that the system was profitable throughout the first 6 months of the season, quickly dipped once the better quality horses started to participate in Irish Maiden hurdles, thus making them more competitive.

This suggests to me the system should be used seasonally from the beginning of May to the end of October, when the racing is far more mundane and the state of the ground is more consistent.

I therefore intend to wait until next May before reactivating the system.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have also enjoyed working with you guys as punting is normally a solitary experience and would very much like to be involved in another project.

As the new boy on the site, I don’t feel that it would be appropriate for me to suggest any ideas to be tackled by the team as I appreciate that a great deal of time and effort has been used to develop and maintain the Irish hurdles database and I guess that you will be keen to extract the maximum bang for your buck.

That said, it might be interesting to try something different where we all start from close to scratch in the hope that we all learn some new techniques?

Just a thought and I will be happy to participate whatever the chosen direction of the group.

All the best,

Rob.

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