[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The first day of the Dublin Racing Festival has provided a couple of selections, so hopefully Leopardstown will pass tomorrow’s inspection.

1.50 – MANGE TOUT – beat her main road rival NARSICO by 2 3/4 lengths receiving 3 lbs last time and now faces that gelding again in receipt of 7 lbs, albeit that rival has since improved to take a Grade 2. Based on adjusted RPRs, the pair should dead heat, yet the favourite is currently best priced at 10/11, whilst my selection is available with Bet 365 at 3/1.

3.30 – AFFORDABLE FURY – won the Grade 1 over today’s course and distance at Christmas, yet is on currently offer at 8/1 with B365 against 12 rivals who all have questions to answer.

I have place 0.5 pts win bets on each, plus a top finish double with Bet 365 with MANGE TOOT @ 10/19 for 3 places and AFFORDABLE FULY for 6 places @ 4/7 which pays around 1.3/1.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Me again!!

I didn’t mention the Cheltenham handicap chases on Trials day during yesterday’s review, but now the BHA handicapper has reassessed the form, I think I may have uncovered some well handicapped horses that would be of interest if turning up at the Festival.

DONNACHA – has only been raised 4 lbs to 136 for his victory in the 2m 4 1/2 furlong handicap chases, which was one of the few races that was run at a strong pace, despite recording a career best RPR of 143. His obvious target will be the Plate Handicap Chase, which will be run on the speedier old course this year, but should not inconvenience him.

JAGWAR – was beaten a neck by DONNACHA on Saturday, but still recorded a career best RPR of 160, but his OR has only been raised 3 lbs to 152 for that effort, which means that he is slightly better treated than the winner. He is a specialist on the new course and may be inconvenienced in the Plate on the faster old course, especially as his jumping at speed can be a little sketchy at times, so perhaps it is time for his connections to bite the bullet and step him up in trip for the Ultima Handicap Chase.

ANNUAL INVICTUS – only finished fourth on his first attempt on the cross country course, but he made up a significant amount of ground towards the finish despite his jockey advising us that his saddled had slipped. He was beaten over 15 lengths and the handicapper has eased him a couple of lbs to a rating of 135. However, in light of the slipping saddle and his inexperience of cross country obstacles, I believe that he could easily improve by at least 14 lbs next time, in which case he would be a leading each way player over the same course at the festival. That said, he will probably be running from a few lbs out of the handicap, so much will depend on how the BHA handicapper treats last years winner STUMPTOWN, who is currently rated 157 in Ireland and will almost certainly be top weight and nudged up a little for last year’s victory.

All the best,

Rob.

PS – if anyone has any thoughts they wish to share, or disagrees with my ideas, please feel free to respond at any time, as the more insight we get the better our chances of finding some value selections.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Here are my thoughts in respect of the two Grade 3 races at Naas on Sunday:

GLEN KILN – recorded a career best RPR of 151 to win the Limestone Lad Hurdle over 2 miles. His performances this season suggest that he is still improving on his 18th career start over hurdles, but this is probably his level and whilst he jumped well on this occasion, two unseats in his last 6 attempts suggests that backing him comes with risks attached.

ARGENTO BOY – stayed on strongly to record an RPR of 150 in the Novice Chase over 3 miles 1/2 furlong. He appears to relish both heavy ground and a test of stamina, and whilst he is unlikely to cope with step up to Grade 1 level (needs to improve at least a further 10 lbs), he may be of interest in either the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, which is now run as a handicap, or the Irish Grand National, albeit his chances will be very much dependent on what the Irish and BHA assessors make of this victory.

Whilst writing, it was interesting to see that Tom Segal (Pricewise) has put up BOB OLINGER as his antepost tip for the Stayers Hurdle, resulting in his odds contracting to 6/1 generally (7/1 B365 and 8/1 William Hill), which suggests that win or lose my 14/1 ticket offer a bit of value).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have to say that I was totally underwhelmed by the winning performances of the graded races at both Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday.

Most of the races were run at a funeral early pace, resulting in sprint finishes, which means that these trials give us very few clues as to whether the runners will appreciate the hurly burly of the fast run races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Anyway, here are my thoughts regarding the seven Grade 2 events:

DONCASTER

THEDEVILUNO – appreciated the step up to 3 miles in a truly run race to post a career best RPR of 145. That figure marks him as a realistic contender for the Albert Bartlett, albeit he will probably need to find a further improvement of at least 6 lbs if he is to win the race at the festival, for which he is quoted at 14/1 best odds.

FEET OF A DANCER – won the next race for mares over the same distance, but in a time 10 seconds slower than her above mentioned stablemate. She was also stepping up in trip, but her winning RPR of 143, leaves her well short of the figure needed to win a Stayers’ Hurdle, whilst the drop back in distance for the Mares’ Hurdle looks less than ideal.

CHELTENHAM

MAESTRO CONTI – has shown progressive form in Juvenile Hurdles, but his winning RPR of just 123 for narrowly beating a fairly exposed opponent leaves him needing to find at least another 20 lbs improvement to win a moderate Triumph Hurdle. His current best odds of 9/1 for that race indicates that this year’s juveniles are a very moderate bunch.

SPILLANE’S TOWER – returned to form for which he was awarded a RPR of 164, but with the favourite GREY DAWNING running a strange race in third, the race took little winning. He will probably run in the Gold Cup, but is unlikely to get involved in the finish, unless he can find around 14 lbs improvement on his 12th start over fences.

THE NEW LION – the early pace was lamentably steady, resulting in a finishing time that was 13 seconds slower than the earlier Triumph Hurdle trial, plus the race was spoilt as a proper test when the hot favourite SIR GINO, was pulled up injured. At least THE NEW LION completed this time and managed to scramble home against a couple of significantly inferior rivals, for which he was awarded a fairly meaningless RPR of just 147. He really needs a strongly run race at 2 miles, which at least he should get in the Champion Hurdle, but whether he offers any value at current best odds of 10/3 is debatable, as he probably needs to improve his career best RPR by at least 8 lbs, over a distance which may prove short of his best.

MA SHANTOU – recorded a career best RPR of 155 for this winning effort and clearly enjoys racing at Cheltenham having won in 3 of his 4 attempts. That said, the two hurdlers that followed him home ran below their best and he will probably need to improve at least 10 lbs to win an average Stayers’ Hurdle.

KRIPTICJIM – progressive novice hurdler who has won his last 3 starts, recording a career best RPR of 133 for this victory in the dark, due to the race being delayed. Although he is entered at the Cheltenham Festival, it is difficult to imagine him being good enough to be involved in the finish of a Grade 1 novice event.

None of the above results have prompted me to add any further antepost bets to my small portfolio.

I will provide my thoughts on the graded race action in Ireland on Sunday over the next couple of days.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I agree that sectional timing could provide an edge in the future once we have an understanding of the message that the figures provide.

However, at this stage my main point was that as Racing TV provide the actual finishing times for each runner, the need to estimate times based on lengths beaten negates the need to some some tricky calculations and should make the resultant speed rating more accurate.

The Racing TV results also provide some interesting stats in respect of each runners ability to jump obstacles, which may prove useful.

Good luck with your bet today – I presume that you are attempting to identify selections that have previously shown that they can handle heavy ground ?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just a quick post detailing my thought on the result of the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle held at Gowran Park on Thursday.

The winner HOME BY THE LEE did well to give weight to his 5 rivals in such atrocious conditions to record a near personal best RPR of 162. However, he has failed in 4 previous attempts to win the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham, whilst his two 2 level hurdles wins have been achieved at Leopardstown, which suggests to me that he is unlikely to gain a third Grade 1 victory this spring, albeit he should be worth considering in calmer waters.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Since our previous email discussion, I have been doing some digging and believe that I have found the answer to your first question.

If you log on to the Racing TV website, they offer a free results service which includes a sectional timing tab.

On the right hand side of the sectional timing data the actual time taken by each runner is shown, which I presume you can use to produce your speed figures without the need to calculate estimated finishing times based on lengths beaten.

There is also a plethora of additional information provided by RACEIQ that may be of assistance, which I suggest we all consider and discuss over the next few weeks, time permitting.

I will give further consideration to your second question regarding weight adjustments over the next week, or so.

All the best,

Rob

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

My miserable betting performance during January continues, despite my first selection IMPERIAL EMPEROR winning at 7/2, but the win and top finish doubles were scuppered by NATIONS PRIDE only finishing fourth of the 6 runners in the next race.

It was all the more frustrating, as NATIONS PRIDE was allowed to do too much in front too soon meaning that he had nothing left in the last 2 furlongs, gradually weakening and lost third place by a short head – had he held on I would at least have picked up a small profit for the top finish double!!

Although there are plenty of graded races and top quality handicaps this weekend, nothing stands out from a betting perspective, although I shall be keeping a close eye on the results for clues for the Cheltenham Festival.

Bank balance now 88.82 pts (with 8.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I think you are probably right with your suggestion that our selections for yesterday’s race will lock horns again in the future.

As for whether they will need time to get over their experiences, I would be wary of backing either without them enjoying at least a 50 day break, as they were both pulled up between the penultimate and final fences, which suggests that the had both run their race and were probably exhausted.

As for today’s selections, there should be no issues with underfoot conditions, as I am off to Meydan for the two Group 1 events at 4.25 on dirt and the 5.00 on turf.

The winner of the 4.25 races is highly likely to come from the top 4 in the betting who can be backed at best odds ranging from 9/4 to 5/1. The runner that has caught my attention is IMPERIAL EMPEROR, who finished runner up in this race last year, but has since won a couple of Group 2s at this track and based on RPRs he appears to have improved since last year’s defeat.

Moving on to the 5.00 race, the betting market suggest that this should be a penalty kick for the long odds on favourite OPERATOR BALOO, who beat my selection NATIONS PRIDE by 3 lengths over today’s course and distance. However, I suspect that the runner up is capable of performing better than he showed last time out and is worth chancing to reverse the placings at the current prices.

I have backed both selections in what I hope will prove to be a low risk/high reward double, as follows:

0.5 pts win double with B365 on IMPERIAL EMPEROR @ 7/2 and NATIONS PRIDE @ 11/2 (B365 Bet Boost Odds) which pays 28.25/1

1.5 pts top finish double on IMPERIAL EMPEROR (5 places) @ 1/5 and NATIONS PRIDE (3 places) @ 1/3 which pays a shade under 0.6/1.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Despite keeping a regular eye on the Thyestes market, JORDANS was never offered at odds greater than 12/1, so no bet today.

The finishing times at Gowran Park support the visual impression that the underfoot conditions were attritional, with only 5 of the 18 runners finishing in the Thyestes Handical Chase, with JORDANS joining 9 other rivals who were pulled up.

My impression is that JORDANS did not run too badly, until he got very tired after the second last fence, prior to being pulled up before the final fence, so I still believe that he remains well handicapped and would be of interest in a similar staying handicap Chase, on better ground, assuming that he can get over today’s exercions.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Regular readers will probably remember that I highlighted about a week ago that JORDANS is a well handicapped chaser, who could be a plot horse for the Theystes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park.

Well he is scheduled to run in the race tomorrow and I believe that he is probably the best handicapped runner in the race, but his ability to handle exceptionally testing conditions has to be taken on trust, as his previous form on heavy ground over hurdles in France, is difficult to assess, although both his sire and damsire (dam unraced) have both enjoyed success with their progeny on testing ground.

Joseph O’Brien’s comments regarding the gelding appear to support my thoughts, as he also believes that JORDANS is currently treated to be competitive in this type of race, but has concerns as to whether he will handle the underfoot conditions.

It is also interesting to note that both the Racing Post’s Spotlight and Ten Year Trends tipsters have nominated JORDANS, which is not ideal as I believe he should be a 12/1 shot, which is exactly the best odds on offer, so at present he offers no value and with the support of 2 RP tipsters he could shorten further.

This is a dilemma as I am not keen to back JORDANS without an edge, so will wait until tomorrow morning to see whether I can secure some value and will update the thread tomorrow either way.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for linking my ramblings to the new antepost thread.

As usual you have asked a very pertinent question and I wish I could provide a definitive answer, but to be honest no top quality races at the Cheltenham Festival, or at other venues throughout the year will be off limits, provided my selections meet all of the following criteria:

1. I must be fairly confident that the selection will turn up for the race, or can be backed non runner no bet, as there is nothing worse in my ethos than not getting a run for my money.

2.. I must be fairly confident that my selections meet has a reasonable chance of either winning, or providing a positive place return, irrespective of which of the other entered runners turn up on the day.

3. I must be fairly confident that the antepost odds and place terms represent value when compared with the likely odds and places on offer on the day of the race.

Hence the majority of antepost bets made so far are on selections, who have just 1 entry at the Cheltenham Festival and have already shortened in the antepost markets.

Which brings me on to the main purpose of this post, which is to provide some thoughts on the entries that were made for the 6 novice events at the Cheltenham Festival which were published yesterday.

I will start with the hurdle races, which despite the large volume of entries proved rather easier for me to analyse.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE – 64 entries

Only 2 entries currently catch my eye as potential winners of the first race at the festival, namely OLD PARK STAR, who I have already commented on at length and backed antepost, plus TALK THE TALK who fell when looking like the winner last time out (not ideal) is also entered in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle.

TURNERS NOVICES’ HURDLE – 94 entries

Just 3 entries have currently made the shortlist, namely LOVE ME TENDER (also entered in the Albert Bartlett), plus SOBER and TALK THE TALK (who are both entered for the Supreme).

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE – 83 entries

My current shortlist consists of 7 entries, all of which are also entered in the Turners, namely CLASSICAL CREEK, FORTY COATS, KICOUR LA, KLIMT MADRIK, LOVE ME TENDER, SANTO SOSPIR and SORTUDO.

TRIUMPH HURDLE – 68 entries

Only 2 names have made the shortlist so far, namely NARCISCO HAS and ONE HORSE TOWN, but the former appears to short in the market to back at this stage, whereas the later could well end up running in the 4yo handicap hurdle at the festival.

Moving on to the novice chases, I found these much tougher to deal with despite the small number of entries, as they produced larger shortlists, plus there are a number of alternative races for which entries have yet to be published (e.g. National Hunt Chase, various novice and open handicaps, etc), which leaves us with a very murky picture.

ARKLE CHASE – 23 entries

My current shortlist contains 7 entries, but of these only 2 entries have no alternative targets, namely KOPEK DES BORDES and LULAMBA, who are both too short in the market, if ROMEO COOLIO turns up on the day.

BROWN ADVISORY NOVICE’S CHASE – 43 entries

There are 8 entries on my current shortlist, but I suspect that all but FINAL DEMAND either have and/orwill be given other options, so this is not a race to get involved in at this stage.

In conclusion, I have no additional selections at this stage, as none of my shortlisted entries meet the criteria at the top of this post, but will review these races again once non runner no bet odds become available.

All the best,

Rob

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As promised, here are my thoughts on the Graded action from last Sunday:

SALVER – justified favouritism in the Grade 2 novice chase at Windsor, finishing ahead of a couple of rivals that he had previously beaten by further at Sandown in early December, which suggests that he is probably not progressing and is unlikely to score at the top level as a novice chaser.

JADE DE GRUGY – it is difficult to get a handle on what she achieved in dominating this Grade 2 novice chase for Mares at Thurles, as the standard of her rivals was probably the most moderate that I have seen for a very long time. She was awarded an RPR of 147 for her easy 18 length success, which is still 6 lbs shy of her best figure over hurdles and also leaves her plenty to find if she is to be competitive in the Grade 2 mares chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

APPRECIATE IT – recorded a career best RPR of 166 for his second consecutive victory in the Grade 2 Chase at Thurles, but as his 3 main rivals in the 5 runner field were fellow stablemates, it is uncertain as to what he has really achieved. It is admirable that this 12yo has posted his two highest RPRs from 2 races so far this season, but I will not be rushing to back him next time out.

I will now start reviewing the entries for the six Grade 1 novice events at the Cheltenham Festival and will share my thoughts in the next day, or so.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A few thoughts regarding the graded race winners on Friday and Saturday.

NO QUESTIONS ASKED – appeared to appreciate dropping in distance to 2 miles when winning the Grade 2 novice chase at Windsor on Friday. However his jumping was not great, albeit slightly better than the runner up and a career best RPR of 151 suggests that he has plenty to find to be competitive against the best novices over the minimum distance.

OLD PARK STAR – his performance in the Grade 2 novice hurdle has already been covered in my previous post, but it is worth mentioning that he was awarded an RPR of 152 for that effort, which suggests that at this stage of his career he is roughly on a par with ALTIOR, SHISKIN and CONSTITUTION HILL, who all won the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

OOH BETTY – spang a surprise in a weak renewal of the Grade 2 mares’ hurdle at Ascot, but her career best equalling RPR of 133 on her 24th start over hurdles suggests that she is basically just a handicapper.

JONBON – benefitted from IL ETAIT TEMPS running flat to win the Grade 1 Chase at Ascot for the second year running, but his RPR of 169 was 3 lbs lower than recorded last year. The only other finisher THISTLE ASK was the outsider of the 4 runners and whilst he ran to a career best RPR of 165, he appears to be a few lbs below the top level at this stage, plus he has a tendency to jump to his right, which is a negative at Cheltenham. In my opinion, JONBON appears to be a waining force over the minimum trip, but may be worth considering over 2 1/2 miles, provided he stays away from Cheltenham where he has suffered 5 defeats from 7 attempts.

I will review Sunday’s graded race action later this week.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing stands out in respect of today’s racing, despite the number of quality races on offer.

In light of the current form of Willie Mullins’ runners, I was almost tempted to lay JADE DU GRUGY at Thurles, but she is so far clear of her 5 rivals, that it is difficult to find something to beat her, whilst her stables’ form is inconsistent rather than poor, so it is a case of needing a crystal ball to pinpoint those runners that are going to underperform.

However, I have just placed another antepost bet for Cheltenham.

MARINE NATIONAL won last year’s Champion Chase with ease and appears to face a similar level of competition for the race this time around, as his main market rivals all appear to have issues:

MAJBOROUGH – has jumping issues
IL ETAIT TEMPS, JONBON and SOLNESS – all struggle to produce their best form at Cheltenham
L’EAU DU SUD and THISTLE ASK – appear not good enough to win a Grade 1
QUILIXIOUS – fell in race last year and has not been seen since
SIR GINO – highly likely to run in Champion Hurdle

At this stage, odds of 7/4 with William Hill appear more than fair for MARINE NATIONAL to retain his title.

OLD PARK STAR was highly impressive when running away with the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Haydock yesterday and already has a victory over hurdles at Cheltenham to his name, albeit on the new course, whereas the Supreme is run on the faster old course, which should suit this prominent racer.

There are still plenty of opportunities for other contenders to step up to the plate, but history suggests that Nicky Henderson’s top notch novices are notoriously difficult to beat in the Supreme, so the standout 11/4 on offer with William Hill appears to offer some value, especially as there could be a few defections for alternative targets.

I have placed a 1 pt each way (1/5 odds for 3 places) double on the pair with William Hill, who have also allowed me to boost the resultant odds by 9% to 10.12/1.

Bank balance now 90.82 pts (with 8.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

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