[Robmull]

Hi folks,

After thar brief interlude, I am back reviewing the festival graded action for Wednesday.

The Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Hurdle over 2 miles and 5 furlongs was the first race of the day, but with 21 runners lining up I felt that the it was unlikely to produce any top quality performances, which proved to be true.

KING RASKO GREY – recorded his second victory from three starts over hurdles, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 147. However, this figure is fully 8 lbs below the previous lowest winning rating achieved during the past decade, which suggests that the form of this renewal is very weak. The winner will certainly need to make massive improvement if he is to be competitive in Grade 1 open races next season.

Next up was the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices Chase over 3 miles and 1 furlong.

KITZBUHEL – maintained his unbeaten record over fences when completing to beat his stablemate FINAL DEMAND by 2 3/4 lengths, for which he was handed a career best RPR of 160. However, that figure is the joint worst winning rating during the past decade, only matched by last year’s winner, LECKIE WATSON, who has failed to trouble the judges in five subsequent starts, which again suggest that the form of this race is relatively weak.

The main attraction on Wednesday was the Grade 1 Champoin Chase over 2 miles, in which the odds on favourite MAJBOROUGH finished a well beaten seventh, after his trait for jumping poorly resurfaced.

IL ETAIT TEMPS – picked up the pieces in grand style to win by 10 lengths and in doing so recorded his eighth victory over fence from just eleven attempts. Although he was only awarded an RPR of 172 for this win, it does represent his best effort from 3 attempts at Cheltenham, albeit he does appear to prefer Sandown, where he has 2 emphatic victories in Grade 1 chases with career best RPRs of 175 and 176. He remains in my tracker and will be of interest if attempting to win a second consecutive Celebration Chase at his favourite track at the end of April.

The final Grade 1 on Wednesday was the Champion Bumper National Hunt Flat Race.

THE MOURNE RAMBLER – was one of the stronger candidates for this race and duly obliged by 2 3/4 lengths, recording a career best RPR of 132. However, his winning figure is the joint second lowest during the past decade, suggesting that the bare form is only moderate, albeit I strongly suspect that like previous years many of the participants will go on to win over both hurdles and fences.

I will return with my thoughts on Thursday’s action tomorrow.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I intend to preview the Grand National after completing my review of the Cheltenham Festival, but having looked at the odds comparison I have noticed that Bet 365 have gone NRNB on the race and there is a danger that a couple of my selections are likely to shorten, so I have backed them each way this evening.

JAGWAR – 1 pt each way (1/4 odds for 5 places) @ 12/1

SPILLANE’S TOWER – 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 5 places) @ 33/1 – generally 20/1 elsewhere.

I will share my full shortlist and reasoning for my selections later this week.

Betting bank now 110.01 (with 3.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is time to review the graded race action from last week’s Cheltenham Festival, starting with the results on Tuesday.

OLD STAR PARK – got favourite backers off to a flying start when maintaining his unbeaten record over hurdles in the Grade 1, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle over 2 miles 1/2 furlongs. That said, he got the better of a barging match with the runner up, SOBER GLORY, which in turn resulted in the third home MYDADDYPADDY being impeded, so it was not all plain sailing. The winner was awarded a career best RPR of 156, which is the joint second lowest figure during the past decade, suggesting that the 2 mile novice hurdle division may be lacking in overall quality this year. With both the winner and runner up likely to be rested for the remainder of the season, prior to being campaigned over fences, there is a fair chance that the remains Grade 1 novice hurdles turning into a lottery, resulting in some strange results.

The following Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase over 2 miles, was probably the strongest race of the festival, with the first 3 home worthy of mention and entries in my tracker.

KARGESE – made virtually all the running to win for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 159, after taking into account the 7 lbs mares’ allowance. Whether she would have won had her stablemate KOPEK DES BORDES not pecked on landing, thus loosing ground at the last fence is open to debate, however her performance here suggests that she should prove highly competitive in both Mares’s chases and against the males, where she will receive 7 lbs.

KOPEK DES BORDES – finished runner up on only his second start over fences, recording a career best RPR of 167, suggesting that he also has a fine future at the highest level in chases at around the minimum distance. However, his jumping was rather sketchy, which hopefully will improve as he gains experience, otherwise Willie Mullins may end up with another MAJBOROUGH on his hands.

LULAMBA – could only finish third for an RPR of 166, which equalled his last time out career best figure, but was struggling to keep up with the front two for most of the race, suggesting that he needs further and is likely to be stepped up to around 2 1/2 miles in the near future.

The final Grade 1 of the day was the Champion Hurdle, in which the result was rarely in doubt.

LOSSIEMOUTH – was finally given her chance to run in this race and duly maintained her unbeaten record at the Cheltenham Festival with a 6 1/2 length victory, for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 163, which equates to a figure of 170 after accounting for the 7 lbs Mares’s allowance. Based on adjusted RPRs, her performance has only been bettered by CONSTITUTION HILL (177) and the ill fated ESPOIR D’ALLEN (171) during the past decade, which suggests that she will have strong claims of defending her newly won crown next year, albeit I still believe that she may actually be better over 2 1/2 miles.

The runner up BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (RPR 155) has now failed in each of her 3 attempts at Cheltenham and is undoubtedly better away from this track, whilst the third home THE NEW LION (RPR 162) who was staying on a the finished clearly needs to step up in trip.

The final addition to my tracker ran in the Grade 2 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase.

HOLLOWAY QUEEN – recorded a 5 1/2 length victory in this marathon chase for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 151. Her victory was very much a case of a missed betting opportunity for me as I already had her marked in the tracker as a well handicapped mare, but with the caveat that she required slow ground, so she went unbacked. I clearly got it wrong, as her win on Good to Soft actually suggests that what she needs is a test of stamina, but hopefully she will be worth following in the future in graded events at shorter distance around 3 miles when the mud is flying, or in marathon handicaps, depending on how well she is treated by the handicapper. She could prove to be an exciting prospect, as last year’s winner of this race was HAITI COULEURS who has since recorded some fine victories in the Irish and Welsh Grand Nationals, was only given an RPR of 147 for his win at the festival.

I shall return tomorrow with my thoughts on the second day of the festival.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Although my selections failed to produce a profit today, I did manage to pick up a couple of returns.

KARBAU ran fairly well finishing sixth in the County Hurdle – no return

DINOBLUE won the Mares’ Chase to complete the place portion of the each way double with OUTSCHOOL OUTLAW – return 2.06 pts

HAITI COULEURS was pulled up in the Gold Cup and would probably have preferred slower ground – no return

KEL HISTORIE – finished fourth in the Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle – return 2.25 pts

Making a grand total of 4.31 pts return on 6.0 pts outlay, so not a disaster and topping up the profit for the week to just over 20 pts.

Betting bank now 113.01 pts

I hope readers have enjoyed a profitable Cheltenham Festival and found my thoughts and selections of interest.

I am visiting family over the weekend, but will be back early next week to review the festival results and hopefully find a few horses for my tracker.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Sorry, didn’t see your earlier post which must have sneaked in whilst I was composing my latest update.

I am very pleased with the progress made over the first 3 days of the festival which has seen the net betting bank balance moving from 92.82 pts to 114.70 pts, so almost a 22 pt profit, with just 6 pts of bets to be accounted for tomorrow.

Hopefully, my selections on Friday will produce some returns, but not a major issue if they all fail, as I would have happily taken a profit of 16 points at the start of the festival.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Thursday proved to be rather more difficult, but it could have been a lot worse.

I addition to the previous post, my selection produced the following results:

FACT TO FILE win single and lay returned my stake of 10.60 pts after he was withdrawn.

OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW – finished runner up, despite drifting like a barge, thus keeping the place portion of the each way double with DINOBLUE alive.

BOB OLINGER – finished third for a return of 3.80 pts.

RED DIRT ROAD – well beaten – no return.

HUNG JURY – pulled up – no return.

As for tomorrow, I am going to keep things simple and rely on my antepost wagers, as follows:

2.00 KARBAU 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 9/1 – current best odds 9/2, generally 4/1
2.40 DINOBLUE 1.0 pt each way double, but only place portion alive
4.00 HAITI COULEURS – 1.0 pt each way (1/4 odds for 3 places) @ 9.78/1 – current best odds 11/2, generally 5/1
5.20 KEL HISTORIE – 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 14/1 – current best odds 9/2

Betting bank now 108.70 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Fingers crossed for a few returns tomorrow and good luck to everyone.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

With the participation of FACT OR FILE in doubt due going concerns, I have cashed out the antepost 1.0 pt each way double with DINOBLUE, which was not NRNB.

Possibly a poor decision, but I believe that McManus/Mullins will put the horse’s welfare first and I would prefer to get a small return of 2.98 pts for a profit of 0.98 pts rather than lose another 2.0 pts without getting a run for my money.

Furthermore, the 2 pts NRNB win bet on LOSSIEMOUTH for the Mares Hurdle has been refunded.

Betting bank now 94.30 pts (with 9.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I thought that my bookmakers would be offering super boosts on WODHOOH in the Mares’ Hurdle, this morning.

However, two of them have gone with FACT TO FILE, with a boosted price of 7/4, which is undoubtedly value when compared with the best odds of evens available elsewhere.

Although I have backed him antepost in an each way double, after which he romped home over 3 miles and 1/2 furlongs at the DRF, I have developed a niggling doubt as to whether he will have got over what was quite a hard race in heavy ground, so I am not keen to back him further without insurance.

I have therefore taken the safe option and gone with the following:

4.0 pts win @ 7/4 for a return of 11 pts
6.4 pts lay (not to win) on the exchanges for a return of 11 pts after commission.

This has given me a guaranteed profit of 0.6 pts, which covered a very speculative investment which I made late last night, just before going to sleep.

I was not intending to get involved in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase (5.20) and I can’t take any credit for finding this one, as he was identified by Paul Kealy in the Racing Post, but I thought that he reasoning was spot on and the horse was worth a small investment at massive odds.

The horse in question is HUNG JURY, who is now 11 years old and has spent most of his career racing in PTPs, prior to being sent to Martin Keighley’s stable about a year ago. Since then he has run over fences on 6 occasions, winning twice and finishing runner up once.

Both of his wins have been achieved at Cheltenham from 3 attempts, so he clearly likes the track and should have no difficulty with the underfoot conditions having won on both good to soft and heavy ground. He runs off an OR of 127 today, which appears more than fair, based on his career best RPR of 135 and will be ridden by Mr James King, who is a more than competent amateur jockey, who was aboard when the horse was successful on his latest visit to the track.

I hope readers will forgive me for quoting the odds that I secured last night, which is a bit naughty as they have been cut, but I honestly haven’t found the time to post until now.

0.25 pts win with William Hill who kindly allowed me to use my daily boost on their standout odds of 66/1 to secure 75.38/1, plus 0.25 pts for a top 10 finish with Bet 365 @ 13/8 (current best win odds 40/1 and 7/5 for a top 10 finish)

Betting bank now 89.32 pts (with 13.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Good luck everyone..

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi guys,

Many thanks for your kind comments.

Many punters tend to turn the heat up and take a few chances after a couple of good days, but I have learnt from bitter experience that it is often better to take a conservative approach, so sorry no fireworks for Thursday.

I already have antepost investments, as follows:

1.20 OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW – 1 pt each way double with DINOBLUE on Friday
3.20 BOB OLINGER – 1 pt each way
4.00 FACT TO FILE – 1 pt each way double with DINOBLUE on Friday
4.40 RED DIRT ROAD – 0.5 pts each way

My only addition at this stage is a further 1.0 pt bet on RED DIRT ROAD to achieve a top 10 finish @ 6/4.

However, the shape of the market for the Mares’ Hurdle looks interesting, especially if the favourite WODHOOH is offered with boosted odds, so I may be back tomorrow, with a further bet.

Betting bank now 100.42 pts (with 13.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Good luck everyone

Rob

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Poor jumpers rarely win the Champions Chase, as MAJBOROUGH has again shown – the further he went the less assured his jumping became, until he made a complete hash when put under pressure by a rival who was upsides him – definitely not one to be trusted!!

Perhaps I should have summed up the courage to lay him outright, but that said he was never available at odds against to fail, so I will take my 0.5 pts profit for an outlay of 5 pts and be grateful.

What can I say about my other bet on Wednesday, JINGKO BLUE (0.5 pts each way @ 20/1) who was backed off the boards and duly justified favouritism @ 9/2 to demolish the opposition in the Bet MGM Cup by 6 lengths.

That makes a total return for the day of 19.0 pts, which certainly makes the betting bank balance a good deal healthier and should guarantee a profit for the festival whatever happens over the next couple of days.

I will return later with my thoughts for Thursday.

Betting bank now 101.42 pts (with 13.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

MAJBOROUGH has been the subject of a few odds boosts in the Champion Chase and is on offer at 7/4, which based on my analysis is a good price.

However, despite these value odds, I just can’t bring myself to take the plunge and back this well documented dodgy jumper of fences, with some insurance.

Purists will probably not approve of the action that I have taken, but in my opinion all is fair in the punting game, so I have placed the following wagers:

2 pts win @ 7/4 with one of the bookmakers offering boosted odds
3 pts lay (not to win) on the exchange at the equivalent of 5/6 (after commission)

Both these wagers will produce a return of 5.5 pts for an outlay of 5.0 pts, leaving a small profit of 0.5 pts, whatever the result, which is an acceptable guaranteed return in my book.

Betting bank now 82.42 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Good luck everyone..

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Six of the seven races at Cheltenham on Wednesday appear extremely competitive and to be honest if I was to pick 6 runners in each, I would probably struggle to find a single winner.

That said, I do have the 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) antepost investment on JINKO BLUE @ 20/1, which at least suggests that I have secured a bit of value as the selection is now best priced @ 11/1 (generally 10/1).

My other antepost selection was EDWARDSTONE, but he has not been declared for the Grand Annual, so my stake has been returned.

The one race that is of interest to me is the Champion Chase, in which the favourite MAJBOROUGH is the key runner.

Previously on this thread, I have mentioned that I would be keen to lay MAJBOROUGH at a shade of odds against, as I believe that he has a 50/50 chance of winning, however at the time of writing his odds with Bet 365 are 5/6 either to win, or not to win, so no value at present.

I shall therefore closely monitor his odds tomorrow morning, as his odds not ro win may drift allowing me to lay him to win, or his odds to win may be boosted by one of my bookmakers, in which case I may even be prepared to back him.

Betting bank now 87.42 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Hopefully, more opportunities will arise over Thursday and Friday.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Looks like I won this particular Kit Kat challenge, with PORQUOI PAS PAPA finishing 4th, but your sweet treat is safe, as I can’t eat them, being both gluten and dairy intolerant.

I also has BIBE MUS on my shortlist, until he ran on Saturday, but the 5 lbs penalty that he picked up for his win meant that he dropped out of my reckoning.

Interestingly, I should also have backed the winner, as SARATOGA was the only runner from the juvenile hurdle at Naas, which has now provided 5 of the last 8 winners of this race, but for me his odds were too short.

Overall, the first day of the festival has gone well, resulting in a return of 16.60 pt return (including stakes), thanks to:

SOBER GLORY – 2nd
PORQUOI PAS PAPA 4th
LOSSIEMOUTH – 1st

The only disappointment being ANZADAM who finished 7th of 9 runners behind LOSSIEMOUTH in the Champion Hurdle.

Betting bank now 86.42 pts (with 15.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

I will return with my thoughts for tomorrow later.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Please place the first of my £5 free bets on ANZADAM without the favourites.

Many thanks,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have found a couple of selections for Tuesday, which are unlikely to be subject to any special offers from my bookmakers.

1.20 SOBER GLORY – has barely put a foot run during his short career, having won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles, having previously been successful in his sole start in a PTP and in all 3 runs in NH flat races. He has solid claims based on both his best RPR of 155 (4 lbs below top rating) and TS of 151 (best in race) and the old course should suit his prominent running style, yet he is available at 14/1, which in my opinion underestimates his chance of a podium finish.

0.5 pts win @ 14/1 and 1.5 pts for a top 6 finish @ 20/23 (just in case he gets run down by the finishers on the long run in) with Bet 365.

2.40 PORQUOI PAS PAPA – has just one victory from 5 hurdle starts, but has finished runner up on each other occasions. He recorded a career best RPR of 121 last time, when beaten 2 1/4 lengths by the reopposing MANLAGA, but is now 6 lbs better off with that rival, yet is available at 20/1, whereas the victor is a 7/1 shot. He is another prominent racer and could be open to further improvement on his handicap debut for a trainer, Paul Nicholls, who has won this race on 3 occasions in the past.

0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places. plus 1 pt for a top 10 finish @ 13/10 with Bet 365.

I also have a couple of antepost investments running in the Champion Hurdle (4.00), namely ANZADAM and LOSSIEMOUTH.

Bet bank now 69.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

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