[Mike]

Hi Suds
Never a problem I think being run off your feet will probably apply to most of us at this time of year. As it stands the Irish racing usually takes a sabbatical just before x-mas, so after the weekend fixtures it is unlikely you will see much happening until the big Boxing Day cards when every man and his dog usually has something running.
Enjoy your timeout and look forward to seeing what you decide to go with in the new year. I may just keep an eye on what Gavin Cromwell etc gets up to especially after the last few results as I think the yard may just have turned the corner. ?

[Mike]

Hi
As Jackmoon quickly pulled up halfway round having been at the head of affairs it looks like every cloud has a silver lining as bet365 would not accept my bet…lol. But unless anyone has any further options I am out of ideas here. ?
I am always up for a new idea as a collaborative thread but in the meantime it is nearly clean the site up time for the new year. So before I delete/archive the old threads, just let me know by mail which ones you would like to continue with. ?
I have to archive my threads such as the “Ridiculous ideas for 2025” thread win lose or draw but as this one was successful I will probably now try to expand on that for the 2026 idea. I had discussed the idea with Suds when we were updating the data base and it might be possible to extend it to Chase Racing or NHF if anyone is interested. ? But it does involve a bit of Donkey work.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
I hope the posting issue did not put you off the Gavin Cromwell idea. ? Especially as the handicap hurdle jockey you selected Eoin Staples has only had two runs in December for the yard in that sphere. Camon Rocco placed @ 33-1 (+5.6) and Dgalwaygalvinator won @ 12-1 (+14.4). Again apologies for the few hours we were down that day but it happens. On the plus side it goes a long way to proving your idea and if Cosmo Renfro manages to trouble the judge today it would be another positive sign.

[Mike]

Hi
I am nearly at the stage of giving up this idea as having spent several days getting everything re-set up electrics workstation etc I thought here we go. I just went to write an idea up of only backing those horses that show a up as being value by reversing the odds to percentages chart and building in a tolerance for those likely to upset the apple cart.
So before posting I went on to bet 365 to obtain the odds for the relevant wager. Here is the result. ??
12.50 Punchestown
Whatsanotheryear Top 6 Finish
Jackmoon Top 7 Finish
@23-20
Bet priced changed to 21-20
I begrudgingly accepted the change and went to place the bet again ??
Bet then reduced to 1-1 and was told “My bet needs to be approved by a trader”
I then accepted and tried again ???
Now I am down to 10-11 and guess what “My bet needs to be approved by a trader”
I have by now reduced my stakes down to few pounds just to get the bet down for the thread.
The original prices of the horses have not budged and there are no further non runners. ??
They will still not accept the bet. !!!
Anyone would think it was x-mas….lol.

[Mike]

Hi Hopefull
I do believe you are only -1 as you had two non runners out of three selections last time. ?

[Mike]

Hi
I will quickly take this opportunity to say with Kala Conti winning I just picked up +10.75 points and go into the lead for December with +23.15. However with Majborough running in about 5 minutes time I thinking I will shortly be passing the baton to JoeH & Mgame.

[Mike]

Hi
I am not sure where to go with this idea now as you can only make so many excuses and hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I say excuses as when doing a postmortem on yesterdays races I would say the 12.03 was a race to avoid (well for me anyway) as there were to many NHF PTP and Flat horses in the mix. Then the ground was atrocious and I am never keen on betting when the word Heavy is mentioned in the going. However now for hindsight, the 12.35 produced the following list from our accumulated selections.
Colcannon X4 @ 6-4
Burrows Drive X4 @ 10-3
Road Exile X3 @ 11-2
I Started A Joke X3 @ 18-1
Coyote Spirit X3 @ 18-1
Now obviously had I done the two with double figure odds they placed 3rd &4th. 🤦 With this in mind there is a light at the end of the tunnel (let’s hope it’s not a train coming the other way,) I will continue with the idea but will go back to basics. It will be a few days as I my electrician is still fault finding (hmmm…I wonder what he’s like with racing). 🤣

[Mike]

Hi
Fool Me Once was a non runner but we finally have not one but two going tomorrow and another nemesis horse.

Cork 12.00 Happy Me @ 16-1 for 6 places
Cork 3.22 Dream Shaper 50-1 for 6 places

Dream Shaper is the one I would love to hit the frame but at 50-1 we only have a 1/2 point each way on so it will not be to painful if he lets us down again.

[Mike]

Hi
Rob is developing into a definite front runner competition wise and has started off with +15.73 thanks to Il Etait Temps.
Lulumba also won which means Mgame JoeH & Myself are in the chasing pack with +12.40.
Assuming all tomorrows selections run Mgame
& JoeH could take the lead if Majborough wins. I could also get involved if Kala Conti does the business.

[Mike]

Hi
The 12.03 was always going to be a tricky race to sort out with Flat PTP and NHF all mixed in. But if nothing else it has inspired Suds and I to take a fresh look at the time adjustments between the different codes.
I think I have an idea on what you meant Rob and here is the best option I could see this morning.
12.03
War Rooms (Top 10)
Grey Gardens (Top 10)
@ 9-4
12.35
Colcannon (Top 4)
Burrows Drive (Top 4)
@ 5-4
I have used the top two most selected runners from each race and gone for the safest option that was not odds on.
Over to you Rob or anyone else who has an option.

[Mike]

Hi
Here we go…eyes down for a full house. !

Navan 11.33 Ritz Plan @ 6-4
Wetherby 11.40 Catchim @ 3-1
Aintree 2.05 Bibe Mus @ 11-4
Navan 2.52 Wingmen @ 9-4
Sandown 3.00 Leau Du Sud @9-4
West Ham to win or draw against Brighton @ 11-8

The winning numbers this week are 4,7,16,23,26 and 50

[Mike]

Hi
Only the two winners last week with Charisma Cat @ 13-5 and the Ospreys @ 10-11 providing some solace. But with Kalkbrenner losing by a head and obviously The New Lion falling we felt a bit hard done by. Maybe this weekend will be the one and if we get a few more involved it might change our luck.

[Mike]

Hi
A good weekends racing is lined up to kick off the December competition with the following likely to run.
Saturday
Navan 1.10 Daydeam Nation (Moi)
Sandown 1.50 Lulumba (Mgame JoeH & Moi)
Sandown 3.00 Il Etait Temps (Rob) v Jonbon (Mgame)
Sunday
Huntingdon 1.15 Don’t Mind If I Do (APm)
Cork 1.40 Kala Conti (Moi)
Cork 2.50 Majborough (Mgame & JoeH)
Mgame looks to hold the best hand of cards but a lot depends on Jonbon stepping up to the plate as not only is (Robs) Il Etait Temps a worthy favourite but L’Eau Du Sud is no slouch is what is likley to be the best race of the day.

[Mike]

Hi
I have never seen two races quite so different in make up as these and the 12.03 is going to need a lot of tolerance built into the bet. I would suggest a definite check on the markets from the opening show onwards with so much potential but very little proven form on offer.
I have done the same as last time and done the ratings without using the speed ratings option as I have been working with Suds on comparing NHF and PTP times to Hurdles. It’s impossible but you have to start somewhere.
12.03
Saint Baco
Lord Tobin
Grey Gardens
Le Moulin Rouge
Mary Mammon
Then the ones likely to upset everything
City Of Cork
Lazare De Star
Silent Guardian (Res )
Let It Settle (Res)
12.35
Colcannon
Copacabana
Road Exile
Coyote Spirit
Burrows Drive
Coded Welder
I Started A Joke

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Albeit a temporary set up I am back in the game. ! That sounds fine by me Rob and I will just play catch up on a few threads and then start on the aforementioned races.

[Author]

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