[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I have taken a similar approach, but I am pushing my lunch a little with bigger odds, purely because I had a few small free bets with B365 which I have used for a bit of fun, as follows:

12.03 Navan

WAR ROOMS & ATLANTIC GAMBLE (10 places for each) 1 pt @ 4/1

12.35 Navan

COYOTE SPIRIT & GENUINE ARTICLE (10 places for each) 1 pt @ 3/1

Then to top it off 1/2 pt on all four (again 10 places) in effectively at bet builder double @ 21/1

Good luck.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

To start the ball rolling here are my shortlists:

12.03 Navan

1 – WAR ROOMS
2 – ATLANTIC GAMBLE
3 – PARKLAND
4 – LE MOULIN ROUGE
5 – LAZARE DE STAR
5 – SENSE OF OCCASION
7 – LET IT SETTLE
8 – LORD TOBIN (in case LET IT SETTLE doesn’t run)

Interesting that only one of my shortlist has previous hurdling experience, namely LE MOULIN ROUGE, so will have to take on trust that the others can transfer their flat, bumper or PTP form to hurdles on their first attempt.

12.35 Navan

1 – GENUINE ARTICLE
2 – COPACABANA
3 – BURROWS DRIVE
3 – COLCANNON
5 – I STARTED A JOKE
6 – COYOTE SPIRIT
7 – CODED WELDER

At least only 3 of these are making their debut over hurdles.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I hope all is well with you guys.

May I suggest that we have a look at both the 12.03 and 12.35 races at Navan on Saturday?

Both are maiden hurdles which are scheduled to have 26 runners, so 10 places on offer, suggesting that we should provide shortlists of our top 7 rated candidates in order of preference, as this will give us a bit of leeway against nasty surprises.

Let me know what you think.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Sorry to hear about your electrical issues at home.

These bet builders are proving rather frustrating, as at first sight it appears relatively easy to find 2 or 3 selections to finish in the top half of the race, but there always something that ends up scuppering our bets.

This is especially annoying when we often reach a consensus in respect of one or two big priced candidates that end up running well.

I am wondering whether producing shortlists equal to the maximum number of places on offer is the appropriate way forward, as you may recall in one of my earlier posts that I mentioned a method of predicting likely finishing positions based on each runners position in the shortlist, e.g. top of list likely to finish in top 4, fifth in list likely to finish 5th to 8th, etc.

If we were to adopt this approach we could reduce the size of the shortlists, by limiting them to 3 positions less than the maximum places on offer, e.g. 14 runner race – top 4 rated, 18 runners – top 6 rated, 20 or more runners – top 7 rated.

We can then, dismiss the obvious candidates and concentrate on any outsiders which at least 2 of the group have shortlisted.

We may only get 1, or 2 selections from each race, but we could always perm these in cross race bet builders.

Just a thought – worth a go?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well that was close and a surprise, as I thought Suds had pipped me to the post, after LOVE ME TENDER was declared a non runner and ROMEO COOLIO was successful.

Thanks for putting up the free bets Mike and a great idea that Suds should be awarded one for just missing out.

Plenty of time for the other participants to catch up, as this competition is very much a long distance race and not a sprint.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I am not sure that I can offer much for the handicaps, but here are my lists for the two Maiden Hurdles:

12.05 Clonmel

1 – LOYAL PRAETORIAN
2 – MYSTIC MALINA
3 – BARRAKILLA VAGE
4 – WATTY SHOW
5 – JUSTATAN
5 – MISTYBURN
7 – KOFINO
8 – KANPAI

1.35 Clonmel

1 – PARNELL STREET
2 – BOEDIC ( Reserve)
3 – THAT DANNY FEELING
4 – MINELLA EMPEROR
4 – SPINNINGAYARN
6 – LADY LENA (Reserve)
7 – BECTIVE BRIDGE
8 – ECO PETE
8 – JISKO DU BREM
10 – BALLYREDINKINGSTON
10 – COOLADDI

I have provided a top 11 for this race as my second a sixth choices are reserves and therefore may not get a run.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I can probably provide a top 10 for most of these races, but would suggest that we list them in our order of preference, as the lowest rated may just be making up the numbers.

Perhaps Mike has hit the nail on the head and we should try thinking the “unthinkable” by discounting the most likely candidates and aiming to get a few less fancied selections to finish within the maximum number of places on offer.

Perhaps this is one of those projects where the value and profits are made by accepting a low strike rate, but occasionally hitting the jackpot?

I remain confident that between us we can find a solution to this conundrum.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

No problem- I hadn’t even noticed he was running until I viewed the results.

Great to see that this month’s competition will be going to the wire – good luck Suds with your selections.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Just noticed that you missed JIMMY DE SEIUL – 11.36 Fairyhouse today from your list of runners over the weekend, who was a late replacement on my list.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I didn’t see you post while typing up my thoughts.

It will be interesting to see which approach, works – or whether we both blow out.

Good luck.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have just permed the following runners using a free bet balance with B365 to test the water.

SKYLIGHT HUSTLE – 7 places
CASTERLY ROCK – 7 places
MINELLA DIAMOND – 8 places
DYSART DOLOMITE – 8 places
RONY HAS – 9 places
READY TO ROAD – 9 places
EYETRAP – 10 places
IT’S NOT HIS FAULT – 10 places

Not a full perm, but have tried to provide some level of insurance fro just 5 lines, as follows:

Line 1: SH + CR + MD + RH @ 3/1
Line 2 : SH + CR + DD + RTR @ 13/5
Line 3: SH + CR + DD + EYETRAP @ 15/4
Line 4: SH + MD + DD + INHF @ 5/2
Line 5: CR + MD + RH + RTR @ 15/2

Just a bit of fun.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I agree with Mike that this is not an easy race to price up, which is also shown by the fact that not all bookmakers appear with odds on the Racing Post website and those that have do so show some marked discrepancies.

The VALUE CALCULATOR analysis has also thrown up some strange results, as follows:

SKYLIGHT HUSTLE – 11/4
MINELLA DIAMOND – 10/3
DYSART DOLOMITE – 15/2
CASTERLY ROCK – 10/1
IT’S NOT HIS FAULT – 10/1
LOHENGRIN – 33/1
RONY HAS – 33/1
TOP COEUR – 33/1
MAX MERIDIUS – 45/1
READY FOR ROAD – 45/1
TAKE STOCK – 33/1
EYETRAP – 66/1
EMESTERAYE – 90/1
SNEDDY EDDIE – 135/1
RAVENDARK – 500/1
RECKLESS – 500/1
SOCK IT TO ME – 500/1
SOLDIERS LADY – 500/1
VENTUREVARGO – 500/1
WALK IN THE CLOUDS – 500/1
COUP D’ESSAI – 500/1
IT WILL DO RIGHTLY – 1000/1
ROAD TO THE SEA – 1000/1
WESTANDTOGETHER – 1000/1

Clearly the VC figure for RAVEDARK is massively out of kilter with his chances of winning, but I am not too perturbed by this or any of the other anomalies, as I feel that the suggested odds for most of the main protagonists are reasonable and we should not forget that we are looking for top finish candidates in our bet builders, rather than trying to identify the overall winner of the race.

If their odds hold up overnight, I will be keen to include MINELLA DIAMOND and IT’S NOT HIS FAULT in permed Bet Builders as they both appear to represent value at the top end of the market.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

My shortlist is as follows:

Likely top 5 finishers

CASTERLY ROCK
MINELLA DIAMOND
EYETRAP
DYSART DOLOMITE
SKYLIGHT HUSTLE

Likely top 10 finishers

RONY HAS
READY TO ROAD
TAKE STOCK
EMESTERAYE

Will provide my tissue odds this evening.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Great mind think alike (or fools never differ) as I was also considering perming bet builders to provide some level of insurance against the rogue performance.

Perhaps we should also “Dutch” the bet builders, based on the odds for each, which will give us different stakes for each line, but will ensure the same return for each bet?

MISS KINGSTON was a major surprise based on my analysis, but I now realise that she was ridden by a 7 lbs claimer, so perhaps she wasn’t the complete outsider that I took her for, based on her lower weight.

I think I need to experiment with adjusting my ratings for the shortlist based on weight to be carried.

Not sure whether my method of converting flat RPRs will work for you, but may be worth trying adding 35 to the flat rating to get a representative hurdle figure?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I totally agree, between us we are so close to finding the key to these races.

Just a thought and I know that this suggestion goes against all of your swashbuckling principles, but perhaps it would be worthwhile setting our target a little lower by placing our joint selections in bet builders using the maximum places available, at least until we have perfected our strategy.

Does anyone fancy tackling the Maiden Hurdle to be run at Fairyhouse (2.25) on Saturday – should provide a real challenge – 25 runners, plus 3 reserves?

All the best,

Rob.

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