Mike’s Retirement Plan

[Mike]

Hi
I have been waiting over 5 years (since starting this website) to put this thread down and will finally start it off tomorrow. 🙂 Its probaly a lost cause but…. ?
The premise of the bet is to see if I can utilise all the best ideas from the last five years and see if I cannot turn pennies into pounds over the course of a year instead of on a monthly basis. This will be done by cherry picking selections from the usual threads and taking what I believe to be the safer options at what will obviously be a shorter price. The main difference is that I will be placing the bets at different times, some a day before, some may even be ante post or they could be up to an hour before the race or match starts to obtain the best price. I will also not be limited to a single point (per portion of the bet) but may use any amount from the bank (I hope to build up) as we progress. To save the thread becoming to slow burning we will use the ‘Rolling Maul‘ wager which we created on here a while back. We will start with a 10 point bank and the usual 1 point starter to hopefully get the maul rolling.  Here goes…:)
12.12 Cork The Dawn 100-1 but we are going in with 29-1 for 10 places and 35-1 for 9 places (bet365)
The Dawn is a runner taken from our database of Irish Maiden hurdlers that have achieved decent speed ratings but hopefully have not yet been spotted as they have yet to trouble the judge.
1.22 Cork Glen Kiln 14-1 but again we have taken 33/4 for 5 places  (bet 365)
Glen Kiln has been taken from the database and we are only playing safe, soley due to the fact that the selection is stepping up in trip.

[Mike]

Hi
Well that went better than expected with all three bets coming in which were as follows
12.12 Cork The Dawn 29-1 for 10 places getting a return of +6.80 Profit +4.80
12.12 Cork The Dawn 35-1 for 9 places which got a return of +8 Profit +6
1.22 Cork Glen Kiln 33-4 for 5 places returning +2.65 Profit of +0.65
The Dawn ran on into sixth and although we had only taken him for nine and ten places we need to protect our bank when starting a new enterprise and are happy to have got off to a flyer. 🙂
This means are initial bank of 10 points now stands at 21.45 after the first day. 🙂
Tomorrow we head over to Naas to see if we can continue the run
2.35 Lake Manzaleh 250-1 but we will take the 35-1 for 10 places
Lake Manzaleh is another taken from our database but this is a trickier race so we will stick with the 1 point each way in the extra markets for tonight, but will keep an eye on any price movements during the morning.

[Mike]

Hi
We have one over at Naas tomorrow for which we will going straight in tonight as bet365 are offering a ridiculous price compared to the other bookmakers.
2.12 Lake Manzaleh 250-1 but we have taken 1.5 points each way 45-1 for 10 places. The 1.5 points is the increase in stakes required for the “Rolling Maul” bet.
All the other bookmakers are offering between 66-1 and 80-1 for 3 places. This is one again taken from our database of Irish hurdlers and although having shown nothing so far and having first run for new yard we do think this is one to follow.

[Mike]

Hi
Lake Manzalah let the side down by hitting three out and losing momentum but will still be one to follow.
We will go over to Punchestown tomorrow where we hope to get back on track as we are now only +18.45
12.55 Palamon 50-1 but we will go with 15-1 for 10 places
As we lost the last bet 1.5 each way will again be the stakes today.
2.55 Bossofthebrownies 100-1 is of interest at 30-1 for 6 places but we will check out the non runners and early markets etc whilst we ponder this one.

[Mike]

Hi
Both of the horses placed today but unfortunately we can only count Paloman for the site as I was busy trying to plaster a wall 🙁 and forgot to post the second one before the off. 🙁
We did get both for the main “Winningpost” thread so at least it was not a double disappointment. 🙂
However we had a +6 point return today so we are now up to +21.45 and the next bet will have to be a minimum of 2 points each way or 4 points win as we are sticking to the “Rolling Maul” wager.

[Mike]

Hi
I have had a few queries over the “Rolling Maul” wager which I will try to explain in layman’s terms as best I can but I am sure I will be corrected by one of the Rugby pundits on here. 🙂
A “Rolling Maul” is a rugby term for a stage of play where as instead of running with the ball at speed and passing the ball along the line you would form a maul and slowly move forward. Now this maybe a boring way of doing it but you tend to keep possesion and it is the safer option. The “Rolling Maul” however must keep going forward and although it can be held up and occasionally move sideway’s, it must resume it’s forward momentum within a short space of time. It’s characteristics are very similar to a scrum whereby you are pushing against the opposition (in this case the bookmaker).
Transferring this to a bet means that insted of plodding along at 1 point per portion of the bet we must increase our stakes everytime we have have a win. The idea is avoid the thread becoming stale and to keep the interest going. In the old threads we used a different formula which is explained here Joes dream punt 🙂.
Confused ? So am I…:) Here are the stats for this thread which should help to clarify the situation bear in mind the stake option changes each day we have a bet not with every bet (its confusing enough already).
We gave ourselves a 10 point starting bank and used a 2 point start on the first bets at 1 point each way.
Cork 2.12 The Dawn 29-1 for 10 places getting a return of +6.80 Profit +4.80
Cork 12.12 The Dawn 35-1 for 9 places which got a return of +8 Profit +6
1.22 Cork 1.22 Glen Kiln 33-4 for 5 places returning +2.65 Profit of +0.65
We then had a bank of +21.45 our 10 point bank plus the days +11.45 profit
This meant having successfully used the 2 point option, for our next bet we had to up the stakes to a 3 point win bet or 1.5 points each way.
Naas 2.12 Lake Manzaleh 250-1 but we have taken 1.5 points each way 45-1 for 10 places. (loss -3)
This bet lost and we had now lost momentum (-3 points) and had only +18.45 in the bank but could stick with 3 point option so went with 1.5 points each way on the next wager.
Punchestown 12.55 Palamon 50-1 but we went with 1.5 points each way 15-1 for 10 places  return of  +6 Profit +3
This one won  so we are now back up to +21.45 in the bank so we now have to go in with a 4 point stake to keep the momentum going.
Phew…. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We have been waiting for a while now and this may be a mistake due to impatience but we are going to use one of our bets from tomorrows Winning Post Tips thread on here and will go with 2 points each way on the following runner.
Fairyhouse 2.05 Al Gasparo 66-1 but we have gone with the 12-1 for 8 places

[Mike]

Hi
Al Gasparo not only obliged but actually ran a blinder and placed second at 50-1 behind our Ten To Follow entry Mirazur West. 🙂 Obviously we can only take the +2.80 on the day but it does take us up to a reasonable looking +24.25 kitty to play with. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
I am stuck at work having nearly but not quite managed to retire yet. 😕 But after yesterday’s success we will try another one taken from the main site.
Gowran Park 1.05 Kilbarry Saint 25-1 but the 11-1 for 10 places looks the safe option.

[Mike]

Hi
That was another nice result for the main thread and we are knocking on the door a bit as Kilbarry Saint came second at a decent price as did Al Gasparo yesterday. As for this thread our bet was placed just after the non runners so I could only get 9 places at 12-1 but it was still a +3.50 profit on the day which now takes us up to +27.75. 🙂
I have been asked why I do not use the bigger prices for this thread but the whole of idea on here is to see how far I can take the thread. Also as I am using the “Rolling Maul” system I am having to raise the stakes with every sucessful wager. So having used the 5 point option (2.5 points each way) today we now need to go up again. 🙁

[Mike]

Hi
I am going to stick with Paloman in the 1.35 at Naas tomorrow as he did help us get the thread started a few bets ago. Although available at 20-1 the 21-2 for 8 places looks the safest option, but we now have to go in with a 6 point wager at 3 points each way.

[Mike]

Hi
This is going quite well at the moment which is always worrying. Paloman finished third today which means we picked up another +3.30 profit and are now on a running total of +31.05 points. 🙂 The drawback is that the next bet would have to total a minimum of 7 points.

[Mike]

Hi
Been a bit quiet on here but I have been waiting for the right opportunity and tomorrow might be it.
It will be dependent on the weather as there is (apparantley) snow coming in over Ireland late morning. However we will be looking at the bet posted on the Winning Post Tips thread which is Coulrophobia 250-1 but 35-1 for 8 places in the Thurles 3.05 and will update tomorrow.

[Mike]

Hi
Obviously the racing was abandoned so no bet again and the wait for our next wager continues. 🙁

[Mike]

Hi
Although this is a tougher race and there are only 6 places available our ‘to follow’ horse Coulrophobia 200-1 looks like running today so we have taken him on at 55-1 for 6 places. 🙂 I know this thread is meant to consist of ‘safe bets’ and this selection has been well beaten in all his races to date, but he has run a very consistant low 9.30 speed ratings on all his three runs and that technically places him 5th today (assuming there are no hot newcomers).

[Author]

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