Joe’s dream punt :)

[Mike]

Hi
As you will have noticed exactly the same situation is occuring in that in each 10 fold bet placed, Joe will do just above average in getting 5 selections in. This corresponds with the previous few bets bearing in mind the average is approx 4.5 bets in every 10 at approximate odds of 1-1.
The reason behind this I believe is that you can only bet an accumulator of above three selections as trebles unless you use the sites pre set bets. If you attempt to use ie bet builders you will be restricted to trebles or less in some cases.
So tonight we will use a bet of our own to see what would happen, only we will revert to a higher 5 point stake with a view to doubling up on our next bet.
Fulham v Aston Villa (30+ booking points + Over 1.5 goals + Mitrovic 1+ shot on target) @ 10-11

[Mike]

Hi
Now that was a lot easier as the bet was home and hosed with over twenty minutes still to play. However you would not have been able to have put that bet into a ten fold accumulator as it would have been limited by most bookmakers to trebles.
We will try and prove this was no fluke by trying it again in the Nottingham Forest v Liverpool game which is another for which both teams have statistics we can factor in.
We now have a profit of +4.55 points to use on the next game as we have taken our original stake back out so the next bet is an all or nothing to see if we cannot get a slow burn accumulator started.
The factors to use on this game are that Forest concede goals and collect cards for fun. Liverpool score goals and force corners at will. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
For our next trick we will try the following bet in the Nottingham Forest  v Liverpool game @ 8-11
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
As this is a lunchtime kick off and assuming the bet comes off we will be looking to go straight back in for the Chelsea v Man United game later in the day. This time will be looking for Chelsea Corners, Man United bookings and a goal in the game.

[Mike]

Hi
I will pop this idea down now before the kick off in the lunchtime game. I am starting to like the new idea but will am not sure which way to go wth the bet/s. Here are the suggested punts for today.
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
Bet already placed but I will use our reclaimed stake to go in again at the now 20-23 odds on offer to try and start off a new line.
Everton V Crystal Palace
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton

This bet comes out @ 5-6 but looks a reasonable shout unless someone tells me otherwise. ??

Chelsea v Man United
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea

The odds on this game are short @ 4-7 but the idea is to try and keep the lines going as the fun comes later as the stakes build up.

I will be looking at the Man City v Brighton game later and will update the thread after the first result is known and we can then plot a course for the above bets. ?

 

[Mike]

Hi
With Brighton getting the required cards and Liverpool getting the requred corners the one factor I had not factored in was Liverpool not scoring 🙁
But this has given me an option on linking this thread with the Beat The Lotto (£) thread and mixing up the late kick offs listed above with the horses listed on the thread mentioned.

The one fixture we had not filled in was the Man City v Brighton match for which we will go with the following.

Man City to win with over 2 goals in the match @ 7-10
Everton V Crystal Palace @ 5-6
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton
Chelsea v Man United @ 4-7
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea
2.40 Cheltenham Bella Scintilla @ 11-10 bettng without Pied Piper and Knight Salute
3.20 Doncaster Hispanic @ 5-4 betting without Aesop’s Fable and Bresson
3.15 Cheltenham Editeur De Guye @ 6-4 betting without Clear Runway and Dads Lad
As we have to start all over again we will pick these up in trebles back at the base stakes to see if we can get another bet started. ?

[Mike]

Hi
We had a treble up with the Man City v Brighton and Chelsea v Man United football bets winning along with Bella Scintilla but it was not enough to overcome the lost wagers which puts us right back at square one again.
Also as suspected /predicted of the 12 football bets I have had over the last week only 6 won which along with all of Joe’s puts both of us slightly better than average but no where nearer to achieving any sort of result.
Had we done them all as singles we would have neither been up or down profit wise and leaves me pondering our next move. It ws always going to be a tricky thing to try but we will persevere.
The best % strike we have achieved has been the lastest statistic based bets so we will try to start another slow burn accumulator off tomorrow in the Aston Villa v Brentford game.
Aston Villa to have 10+ booking points plus Ivan Toney to have 1+ shot on target and Brentford to have 3+ corner kicks which comes out @ 5-2

[Mike]

Hi
I have now done a first post mortem of both Joe’s and my first attempts and what has become glaringly obvious is that s the lack of ability to put one in the back of net that has thwarted most of our bets.
Here are my last five attempts using the new stats based selections.
Fulham v Aston Villa (30+ booking points + Over 1.5 goals + Mitrovic 1+ shot on target) @ 10-11 Won
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool game @ 8-11 Lost
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
Man City to win with over 2 goals in the match @ 7-10  Won
Everton V Crystal Palace @ 5-6 Lost
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton
Chelsea v Man United @ 4-7 Won
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea
As you can see every part of my bets came in except the highlighted parts which were all goals that never materialised. 🙁
As previously mentioned in a recent post the other problem is the amount of bets required to get a decent return and the type of bet that the bookmaker will accept in mulitples.
I have a possible solution which I wiil attepmt to explain a bit later as I am working on the maths as we speak. Unfortunately it will mean increasing our intial stake and taking the slow burn approach and even splitting the bet as we go but trying to pull off a dream bet is a tricky thing which very few people are even silly enough to try (but I love a challenge)…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
We are being restricted again even with simple bet builder multiple’s so will try the following

Leicester v Man City Haaland and Vardy 1+ shot on target @ 10-11
Bournemouth v Tottenham Over 1.5 goals and 10+ booking points each team @ 4-6
Brentford v Wolves Each team 3+ corners and 10+ booking points @ 8-11
Brighton v Chelsea Chelsea 1+ goals and 3+ corners @ 8-11
Crystal Palace v Southampton Over 1.5 goals and 10+ booking points each team @ 4-6
Newcastle v Aston Villa Each team 1+ corner each half and 10+ booking points @ 4-5
Fulham v Everton Over 1.5 goals and 10+ booking points each team @ 4-7
Liverpool v Leeds A goal and 4+ corners each half @ 6-5
Arsenal v Nottingam Forest Most goals in the secod half @ 1-1
Man Utd v West Ham Man United 20+ booking points @ 4-6

These are only allowed to be placed as trebles so we will try this option 🙂

[JoeH]

My 10 today are as followed to Win :

Burnley v reading ( Burnley )
Hull v Blackburn ( Blackburn )
Bristol city v Swansea ( Swansea )
Charlton v Ipswich ( Ipswich )
Derby v Bristol rovers ( Bristol rovers )
Peterborough v Cambridge ( Peterborough)
Tranmere v Carlisle ( Tranmere )
Colchester v Stevenage ( Stevenage )
Walsall v Rochdale ( Walsall )
Rangers v Aberdeen ( Rangers )

1650/1

All teams in mega form at the moment, some tough games with decent odds 🤞🏻

[JoeH]

Double your money bet

Middlesbrough to win either half 1/1

Micheal carrick first game in charge I fancy him getting them ticking today ⚽️

[Mike]

Hi
Joe was a tad unlucky in a few of his games (but still has over a 50% strike rate) especially as a few of the games were decent odds and the next time we attempt this I will do the breakdown maths on smaller multiple accumulators.
As for mine we had one void game and 5 wins and ended up a -0.7 of a point down from a stake of 12 points so is probably worth another go next weekend. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Here we go again to see if we can better last weeks effort using the same tactics.

Each team 3+ corners and each team 10+ booking pts @ 5/6
Leeds v Bournemouth
A goal in each half, 4+ 1st half corners and 4+ 2nd half corners @ 6/5
Manchester City v Fulham
Brentford to score 1+ goals and 4+ Brentford corners @ 4/6
Nottingham Forest v Brentford
Over 1.5 goals and each team 10+ booking pts @ 5/6
Wolves v Brighton
Each team 3+ corners and each team 10+ booking pts @ 4/6
Everton v Leicester
Over 1.5 goals and 9+ corners @ 4/5
Chelsea v Arsenal
Manchester Utd to win @ 11/10
Aston Villa v Manchester Utd
Newcastle to win @ 10/11
Southampton v Newcastle
BTTS @ 5/6
West Ham v Crystal Palace
10+ corners in the match @ 8/13
Tottenham v Liverpool

These have again been done in trebles which is the maximum multiple the bookmakers will let me place on the above. 🙁 But as we are just trying a few ideas out it will do  for the time being.

[Mike]

Hi
As the Tottenham v Arsenal game is drawing to a close it looks like we will dropping a good few points this week with only a possible four of the games going our way. 🙁
On the bright side I may try this idea one more time as in three of the games we only missed out by one corner in each game and in two of the other games we only missed out by a booking.
I will be working on the Ten To Follow competiton entries this week so may not get back around to this thread until a bit later in the week.

[Mike]

Hi
I thought with the World Cup approaching I would test the water away from the premiership and have a small dabble with this idea on the cup games tonight.

Everton to win @ 6-4
Brentford to win + btts @ 2-1
Bristol City to win @ 4-6
Burnley to win + btts @ 15-8
Leicester City to win + btts @ 21-10
Milton Keynes Dons to win @ 3-4
Stevenage v Charlton btts @ 4-5

This time with 7 games on offer we will try the fourfold combinations and also the 350-1 acca. Interestingly bet365 have not restricted the multiple bet on the cup games. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Last chance to have a dabble with this bet as the World cup starts next week so here goes.

Man City v Brentford A goal and 4 corners each half @ 5-4
Bournmouth v Everton BTTS and each team 3 corners @ 5-4
Liverpool v Southampton Over 1.5 goals and each team 10+ booking points @ 5-6
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace Over 1.5 goals and each team 10+ booking points @ 4-6
Tottenham v Leeds Each team 1+ corners each half and 10+ booking points @ 5-6
West Ham v Leicester City Each team 1+ corners each half and 10+ booking points @ 5-4
Newcastle v Chelsea Each team 1+ corners each half and 10+ booking points  @ 5-6
Wolves v Arsenal Arsenal to score 2+ goals and Wolves 20+ booking points @ 11-8
Brighton v Aston Villa BTTS @ 8-11
Fulham v Man United 20+ booking points each team @ 1-1

[Author]

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