Joe’s dream punt :)

[Mike]

Hi
JoeH has been an avid follower on here especially of the 100-1 thread etc and has had a few touches himself on the football so he asked me what it would take or the best way to have a punt for a cool million. Now we all know in principle it’s possible (but nearly impossible to pull off) so whilst stuck in bed with the covid bug last week I looked into the basic principle of the idea. So taking our 1 point (in this case £1) standard wager using an even money (odds of 1-1) bet it would take a 20 fold winning accumulator bet to break the million pound barrier ie as listed below.
Bet 1. stake £1 win £1 = £2 Bet 2. stake (now) £2 win £2 = £4 Bet etc etc until you get to Bet 20. stake £524,288 win £524,288 = £1,048,576p
What could be simpler.! Well for anyone who has tried any sort of multiple bet or accumulator you get lucky occasionally but the vast majority of the time you lose. That is why the old enemy (the bookmaker) offers you such great deals. If you dont believe me just try the itv7 it’s free see how you get on.
So going into this knowing it is not going to or at best most unlikely to happen here is the plan we are going to try and execute (just for fun).
JoeH likes his football betting and primarily uses sky bet so we need to find a type of bet/s that you can use in an accumulator that sky bet will accept. The old enemy limit these options so I have a list of football bets that we can use for our trial run.These include Team to win, Double chance (win or draw), over or under 2.5 goals (in the match) and both teams to score (yes or no) etc etc.
Now we are to try and see if we can try this over just 10 games this weekend so it’s over to you Joe and anyone else who wants to join in.
Here are some suggested banker bets from the premiership at odds near to even money to give you an example of the types of bet you could use.
Aston Villa v Chelsea (Chelsea to win @ 5-6)
Leicester City v Crystal Palace (Over 2.5 goals @ 10-11
Fulham v Bournmouth (Bournmouth to win or draw @ 10-11)
Wolves v Nottinham Forest (Both teams not to score @ 4-5)
We may not use these they are just examples of what we are looking for as banker bets.
The next part is a bit more complicated but I will try and keep it as simple as possible.
As it nearly impossible to get 10 winning bets in so we will need to get a minimum of 7 out of ten bets in to avoid losing any money using the suggested trial bet.
The reason being in a bet using ten selections at even money (1-1) the break even point is 7. There are 120 7 fold bets in 10 selections and the return on 1 seven fold bet coming in is 128. So if we managed to get 7 winners we would make a small profit/break even anything less than 7 winners and we get creamed. 🙁
On the plus side 8 winners would give you a 904 point profit, 9 winners a 4,488 point profit and 10 winners a 15,240 point profit.
Now to try it out just for fun you can put your 10 selections down try minimum stakes say 10p on 120 sevenfolds which is only £12 plus a £1 on the accumulator just in case. If you get 8 in you still £90 back if 9 come in you get £448 back and bingo if they all come in you retire.
I am still checking the maths (not quite recovered from the covid yet) but I believe it to be sound.

[JoeH]

Let’s go with tonight’s games :

Both teams to score as follows

Ac Milan v Chelsea
Celtic v RB Leipzig
Dinamo zagreb v Salzburg
Dortmund v Sevilla
PSG v benfica
Shakhter v Real Madrid
Wigan v Blackburn
Charlton v Exeter
Mk dons v Bristol rovers
Peterborough v forest green

134/1 let’s hope for goals galore

[JoeH]

This evenings any time goal scorers five fold

Bereton Diaz – Wigan v ( Blackburn )
Lionel messi – ( PSG ) v benfica
Vinicius junior – Shahkter v ( Real Madrid )
Jevani Brown – Charlton v ( Exeter )
Jonson Clarke-Harris ( Peterborough) v forest green

92/1

[Mike]

Hi
This has been short notice but the new thread has sparked a bit of interest and a few queries via e-mail.
The primary question was the staking plan being so expensive at 120 bets as opposed to just the one simple 1 point accumulator. The point is I am trying to produce a bet that makes a profit ie when I bet a 100-1 shot on here I never take the 100-1 (well rarely)but will take a lower price for a finish further down the field to avoid long losing streaks.
To give you an example I have cherry picked through Joe’s matches and bets for tonights games and quickly come up with a bet which is as follows.

AC Milan v Chelsea btts yes @ 4-5
PSG v Benfica PSG to win plus btts yes @ 7-4
Charlton Exeter Jevani Brown to score @ 21-10
Peterborough v Forest Green Clarke- Harris to score @ 4-5
Wigan v Blackburn btts yes @ 10-11
Shakhtar Donesk v Real Madrid Real madrid to win plus btts yes @ 2-1
Milton Keynes v Bristol Rovers btts yes @ 3-4

The 7 fold 1 point win acca comes to +275.84 but I have gone with 7x 1/2 point sixfolds which comes to +446.48 should all seven come up but if as I suspect at best any six come in I still get some dosh back.
Hopefully this example will clear things up but this weekend’s wager should shed some furter light on the topic. However don’t hold your breath for a big win acca’s are a nightmare bet (but a lot of fun). Any bets on only 5 coming in…lol 🙁

[Mike]

Hi
Thanks to Joe for throwing up a sample of bets last night. It is always tricky putting your thoughts down on paper as it is a bit like sticking your head above the trenches and hoping you don’t get your head shot off.
As you can see although Joe lost he did quite well as he got six of the ten in which means if he had got one more, on the recommended system he would have broken even. He also did better than my quick fire example bet, but I think it got the idea across and answered most of the queries.
Ac Milan v Chelsea
Celtic v RB Leipzig
Dynamo Zagreb v Salzburg
Dortmund v Sevilla
PSG v Benfica
Shakhter v Real Madrid
Wigan v Blackburn
Charlton v Exeter
Mk Dons v Bristol Rovers
Peterborough v Forest Green
However once the red card was issued in the AC Milan game that was probably the kiss of the death for the acca anyway but we did warn you this was a tough ask. Bet 10 even money (1-1) shots and you should get between 4 and 5 in. Getting 6 is better, anything else as we have shown with what will be our first bet this weekend would be target. 🙂
There is one other way of doing this for those who want to join in which is to take the slow approach but along the same principle and would be the safer option.
Here is another example from tonights fixtures in this instance you are looking for a bet that looks to be the safest banker bets you can find even at short odds but preferably should total (1-1) even money or better when the bet is placed.
Napoli v Ajax both teams to score @ 4-9
Rangers v Liverpool both teams to score @ 4-6
These will be used tonight in a double at 1.41-1
Should these (what appear to be) safe options come in we will then split the return and re-invest the bet again in two short priced bets the next time and try to build up two seperate slow burning acca’s.
But let us not get carried away with the idea let’s try and get the first two in…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
Last nights banker bet double came in so we will be now looking to split the stakes.
Napoli v Ajax both teams to score @ 4-9
Rangers v Liverpool both teams to score @ 4-6
These will be used tonight in a double at 1.41-1
The idea is now to get two slow burn accumulators going obviously using different bets on each one as we know at sometime we are going to get a deal breaking loser along the way. The idea is that if we can keep at least one of the bets going you should the wager slowly building up. The other advantage is that by only backing one or two bets each time we have less chance of screwing it up. 🙂
I will see if I can find a bet for tonight for at least one of the bets.
I will also tonight post my final selections for our first attempt at the suicide accumulator on Saturday (I just know this one is going hurt)…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
I am not sure if I will be back before tonight’s kick off so will post the following bet on behalf of our first slow burn accumulator. Remember we are using half the returns from bet 1.
Bodo /Glimpt v Arsenal BTTS 8-13
Qarabag v Olypmiakos BTTS 8-11
These will used in a double at 1.79-1 The stake is 1.2 points (half return from original bet).
We will tag this bet as bet 2 Alpha.

[Mike]

Hi
With a few minutes to go it had become obvious to me that our first line Alpha is going to crash and burn on bet 2. Which does not bode well for our first full attempt this weekend and you can now see why I nicknamed it the suicide bet. 🙁 But here goes….

Brentford v Brighton Both teams to score @ 4-6
Leicester v Crystal Palace Over 2.5 goals @ 4-5
Fulham v Bournmouth Bournmouth to win or draw @ 10-11
Wolves v Nottingham Forest Wolves to win @ 7-10
Tottenham v Everton Over 2.5 goals @ 8-11
Aston Villa v Chelsea Chelsea to win @ 3-4
Leeds v Arsenal Arsenal to win + Both teams to score @ 2-1
Man United v Newcastle Newcastle to win or draw @ 5-6
Southampton v West Ham West Ham to win @ 11-8
Liverpool v Man City Man City to win + Over 2.5 goals @ 11-8

Now the 10 fold accumulator comes to 912-1 but as pointed out this is the long shot so at minimum stakes we have gone for 120x 10p 7 fold accumulators which if we are lucky enough to get 7 in will get us a small return and hopefully break even. Anything above that and we should be in profit but don’t hold your breath just getting 7 of these in would be a result first time out. 🙂
For those wondering what happens if they all come in the return on your 120x 10p 7 folds would be £1,472.95p and an additional alternative bet to backing the full 10 fold accumulator would be 10x 10p 9 fold accumulators which if all ten bets come in would return you a total of £469.19p but once again if any nine come in you still get a small profit.

I have one line of our side slow burn accumulator to go so I might as well get my face well and truly slapped on the day by throwing in our Beta line with the following bet.
Fulham v Bournmouth Both teams to score @ 4-6
Liverpool v Man City Both teams to score @ 2-5
These will be used in a double at 1.33-1. The stake is (the other half of bet 1 which is) 1.2 points.

[Mike]

Hi
JoeH has sent me a list of 10 selections which are as follows.
Watford v Norwich BTTS 8-11
MK Dons v Plymouth Plymouth win 5-4
Gillingham v Stevenage Stevenage win 10-11
Salford v Bradford BTTS 8-11
Accrington v Derby Over 1.5 goals 1-4
Cardiff v Coventry Over 1.5 goals 4-11
Wycombe v Peterborough Clarke Harris 13-8
Sunderland v Wigan BTTS 5-6
Leyton Orient v Northampton BTTS 5-6
Blyth Spartans v Wrexham Over 2.5 goals 1-2
This in addition to my ten would obviously would make the 20 bets required but I lack Joe’s faith. I will update the possibilities of any options if I get a chance tonight.
Best of luck Joe 🙂

[JoeH]

Sorry haven’t had chance to put it up rammed in work yeah above is the following 10 .. good luck if you follow

[Mike]

Hi
Well last nights first game of my ten was a perfect example of why you should only play big accumulators for fun. Brentford scored twice and all we needed was one goal for Brighton who had 21 attempts on goal 10 were blocked 7 were on target and only 4 off target but…:(.
This leaves me with a feeling of impending doom for the rest of the selections but on a more positive note I have had an idea on linking this type of bet to the Reply To: Beat The Lotto (£) thread as the interest in that has dried right up. 🙁
It will not happen immediately, but I have just told work that I will going part time as of November which will give me a bit more time to work on the site (which after all has always been my retirement plan). 🙂
Best of luck to Joe all of his ten are yet to play. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Although as suspected both lines lost out, both had 4 winners from 10 bets which is about average (dependent on the odds of the individual wager). It was not as bad as I thought and having cut my teeth on the idea. I will have another go this week (only in somewhat of a different format). I am still working on the details but will post something by Tuesday. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
With no NH racing on offer in Ireland until Thursday I have devoted a bit of time to this new (fun) thread.
As previously mentioned I have no expectations of getting a full accumulator in but am finding it a bit of fun dabbling with the maths side of things to see where the break even point comes in and to find out whether or not it would be possible to get a return on such a bet.
I will stick to the Premiership as there are more statistics readily available. 🙂

Brighton v Nottingham Forest Brighton to win @ 4-11
Crystal Palace v Wolves Crystal Palace to win @ 6-5
Bournemouth v Southampton BTTS @ 8-11
Brentford v Chelsea BTTS @ 8-11
Liverpool v West Ham BTTS @ 4-6
Man United v Tottenham BTTS @ 8-15
Fulham v Aston Villa Fulham to win @ 9-5
Leicester City v Leeds BTTS @ 8-15
Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Liverpool to win + Over 3.5 goals @ 11-8
Man City v Brighton Man City to win + 2.5 goals @ 4-7
Everton v Crystal Palace BTTS @ 4-5
Chelsea v Man United BTTS @ 8-13

Now I believe the cut off point here at the odds taken would be to take the 220x 9 folds on offer which gives you a 25% margin of error (losing bets) without losing your shirt. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
I do wish I hadn’t said anything about the 25% losses… lol. I have just tuned in to find Palace losing 1-0 and to find that Brighton have had 15 attempts on goal 67% possession and 7 corners but can’t score. I think it’s time for bed and back to the horses on Thursday….lol.

[JoeH]

Here’s tonight’s over 2.5 goals

Brentford v Chelsea
Liverpool v West Ham
Manchester United v Tottenham
Coventry v Sheffield utd
Wigan v Middlesbrough
Millwall v Watford
Rangers v Dundee
Elche v Real Madrid
Augsburg v Bayern Munich
Lugano v young boys

162/1

[Author]

Posts