Cheltenham Countdown (archive)

[Mike]

Hi All
Here is the post mortem of the first days racing with regard this thread.

As first days of the festival go this was strange one I had two fallers one brought down and another badly hampered but such are the joys of betting at the festival.
My redemption was Roksana who not only pulled out my first return as an each way single at 16-1 but also kicked off a few each way doubles for tomorrow involving City Island in the opening race and Abacadabras in the lucky last.
I had indicated that this was probably my best bet of the festival but I am reliant on the ground not making the races a war of attrition as the later races turned out to be today.
The other bets did not fare so well and one is already reduced to one selection which is Whisky Sour in the Randox on Friday.
Of the other bets they are all still plodding on and I will update again tomorrow with the post mortem on my selections for day two.

[Mike]

Hi All
I have to post a change to one of the bets as Ballywood has just been declared a non runner and I have just added Canardier who goes in the Coral Cup.
The original bet was as follows:
Coral Cup Early Doors 16-1
(Non Runner)
Fred Winter Chief Justice 16-1
Pertemps Wait For Me 33-1
Kim Muir Impulsive Star 12-1
(Non Runner0
Grand Annual Ballywood 20-1
Martin Pipe Conditional Flawless Escape 25-1
(Non Runner)
The new bet is listed below:
Coral Cup Canardier 16-1 6 places 1/4 odds
Fred Winter Chief Justice 33-1 5 places 1/4 odds
Pertemps Wait For Me 50-1 5 places 1/4 odds
Martin Pipe Conditional Early Doors 8-1 4 places 1/4 odds

[Mike]

Hi All
The post mortem for the second day reads a lot better as the first of my ante post bets has been completed and fortunately has produced a winning double and reads as follows:
Supreme Novice Hurdle Mister Fisher 11-1 Lost
OLBG Mares Hurdle Roksana 16-1 Won
Ballymore Novices Hurdle City Island 10-1 Won
Talkischeap is now a non runner at the festival
Champion Bumper Abacadabras 25-1 Lost

The bet which ended up with just the four selections returned two win and place singles and a win and place double making a return of 241 points and a 230 point profit.
This was good news but in fairness I had stated earlier “This bet is probably my best chance of a return as all of the runners are showing tonight at less than double figures so fingers crossed“.
I still have one bet yet to start and the other three are in various stages of completetion and hopefully I can get a further return from one of them.
All of the remaining bets should now stand as they are unless of course there are any non runners declared over the next two days.

[Mike]

Hi All
Just a quick post mortem tonight in which three of the four runners lost although I thought I was a tad unlucky with Kildisart and Baupame both finishing fourth and just missing the magic place return required.
The best return on the day was Aso who was a close second and brings up an each way double on one of the bets with Might Bite still to run.
This means that as I go into tomorrow I have one completed winning bet one bet with a guaranteed return and the other three still running.

[Mike]

Hi All
I have had to wait until this morning for all bets to be settled before I could finish the full post mortem for the thread as there were a few minor deductions that I had not allowed for when using the new edit bet scheme on bet365.
Having had a brilliant start with a win double for a profit of +231 points in the first bet things soon went to pot but the next bet made a profit all the same.
Coral Cup Canardier 16-1 6 places 1/4 odds
Fred Winter Chief Justice 33-1 5 places 1/4 odds
Pertemps Wait For Me 50-1 5 places 1/4 odds
Martin Pipe Conditional Early Doors 8-1 4 places 1/4 odds
This bet was originally had six selections and got a little complicated due to being altered twice but ended up with four runners a non runner and a small stakes deduction but returned an each way double a win and place single and a place single. In the end although that sounds a good return it only made 31.32 points plus a reduced stakes return 3.92 points which made a total t return of 35.24 less reduced stakes of 21.56 making a small profit of +13.68 points on the bet.
The next cleared its reserve by scraping a return but I will settle for those all day long.
Champion Hurdle Sharjah 9-1
Champion Chase Sceau Royal 14-1
Ryanair Chase Aso 16-1
Stayers Hurdle Bapaume 20-1
Gold Cup Might Bite 14-1
This one was another unaltered bet so stood as an each way double on Sceau Royal at 14-1 and Aso at 16-1 which returned 22.5 points which led to a +0.5 point profit.
The next set of each way selections returned a loss as with a non runner I could only manage a single place return on Whisky Sour for 6 points less the 22 points laid out means I ended up -16 points on this one.
The last set of each way selections made no returns so ended up -22 points and the win bet which was not originally part of the thread but must be included lost me -12 points.
This means I ended up +195.18 points on the festival that does not seem a lot for the effort put in but at any given time I had the opportunity should the gods of racing have taken pity on me to have made more than enough to retire on but had a well grounded base which I was convinced was going to recover most of my outlay.
My biggest dissapointment was not managing to get an each way accumulator in but even that was always going to be tad optimistic in the given circumstances.

[Mike]

Hi
Although our early plans have been decimated by injuries etc we have decided now that non runner no bet has been introduced we will make our first wager.

The Ultima Handicap Chase The Big Breakaway @ 16-1
The Turners Novice Chase Galliard Du Mesnil @ 25-1
The National Hunt Chase Diol Ker @ 16-1
The Cross Country Chase Shady Operator @ 10-1
The Coral Cup I Am Maximus @ 14-1

Most of the above already 4 places on show but obviously extra places will be available on the day and you can obtain better prices by jumping between the current  bookmkaers odds on offer.

However to get the multiples we require at NRNB with 4 places we are happy enough. 🙂

The above bet is our usual each way doubles as if we get a non runner we will still have a mixture of singles and doubles on our orignal selections.

[Mike]

Hi
We have now put down our second Cheltenham wager which is as follows and this once again will be 10x each way doubles for a minimum of 4 places at non runner no bet.

County Hurdle Balco Coastal @ 16-1
Mares Novice Hurdle Love Envoi @ 14-1
Grand Annual Andy Dufresne @ 14-1
Pertemps Hurdle The Big Galloper @ 12-1
Martin Pipe Conditional Deploy The Getaway @ 12-1

[Mike]

Hi
As Cheltenham approaches we will throw in another set of 10x each way doubles this time based around the first day of the meeting on Tuesday.

Once again there are slightly better prices available but we are always looking for the extra place in this type of wager.

Arkle Chase Magic Daze @ 12-1
Ultima H’cap Chase Our Power @ 12-1
Close Bros Mares Hurdle Martello Sky @ 12-1
Boodles H’cap Hurdle HMS Seahorse @ 10-1
Albert Bartlett Nov Hurdle Falcon Eight @ 16-1

[JoeH]

Thank you Mike, good luck 👌🏻

[Mike]

Hi Joe
No worries best of luck I think we will need it this week.  🙁

The first day confirmed a mass of non runners on our first wager with four of the first five being ruled out so we have cashed out which more or less broke even and have taken our remaining runner Shady Operator and included Galliard Du Mesnil who switched races over to a new bet with three going tomorrow. 🙂

The Ultima Handicap Chase The Big Breakaway @ 16-1 (non runner)
The Turners Novice Chase Galliard Du Mesnil @ 25-1 (switched race/non runner)
The National Hunt Chase Diol Ker @ 16-1 (non runner)
The Cross Country Chase Shady Operator @ 10-1
The Coral Cup I Am Maximus @ 14-1 (switched race/non runner)

2.10 Galliard Du Mesnil @ 16-1
2.50 Indigo Breeze @ 12-1 (8 places)
4.10 Shady Operator @ 10-1 (5 places)
The County Hurdle Boothill @ 20-1
The Albert Bartlett Falcon Eight @ 16-1

The other switched horse I Am Maximus is being used as a win bet in the 1.30 tomorrow as Sky Bet are offering a money back option if your horse finishes in the first five but places which is too good to turn down as it means we can go maximum on that one.

The second wager had four going today of which Our Power 12-1 and HMS Seahorse 10-1 both placed which will give us a return but now relies on Falcon Eight in the last leg to see if we clear a profit on the bet.

As you can see from the new bet we have re-used Falcon Eight just in case the bugger wins.  🙂

[Mike]

Hi
I Am Maximus grabbed fifth so that bet was a void due to the special terms of the bet.

Of the others Galliard Du Mesnil and Indigo Breeze both placed which means we already have a return to come on yesterdays bet with both Boothill and Falcon Eight still to go.

2.10 Galliard Du Mesnil @ 16-1 Placed
2.50 Indigo Breeze @ 12-1 (8 places) Placed
4.10 Shady Operator @ 10-1 (5 places) lost
The County Hurdle Boothill @ 20-1
The Albert Bartlett Falcon Eight @ 16-1

Today we also had Andy Dufresne run (placed second) from our other bet which means as we had three non runners there we already have three singles in and the possibility of a double to come plus further singles.

County Hurdle Balco Coastal @ 16-1 (non runner)
Mares Novice Hurdle Love Envoi @ 14-1
Grand Annual Andy Dufresne @ 14-1 placed
Pertemps Hurdle The Big Galloper @ 12-1 (non runner)
Martin Pipe Conditional Deploy The Getaway @ 12-1 (non runner)

This means all of our bets to date now look as if they will all return a profit but most rely on Fridays results which means we have a bit of scope to have an extra punt for tomorrow.
However although we are knocking on the door with most of our bets we are not getting that elusive first (except obviously our ten to follow selections) therefore we will go for some big priced outsiders as follows.

2.10 Sassy But Classy 10-1 (8 places)
2.50 Finian D’estruval 33-1
3.10 Lisnagar Oscar 33-1 (4 places)
4.10 Hardline 20-1 (7 places)
4.50 Ahorsewithnoname 80-1 (5 places)
4.50 Nurse Susan 20-1 (5 places)

The bet has two selections in the last race as I have another shot to nothing bet for tomorrow and will decide after the non runners have been declared which one will be the single bet.

[Mike]

Hi
As suspected there have now been a hatful of non runners today so here is the bet we have placed using last nights suggestions.

2.10 Sassy But Classy @ 10-1 (8 places)
2.50 Finian D’estruval 33-1 (12-1 betting without Allaho)
3.10 Lisnagar Oscar 33-1 (20-1 betting without both Flooring Porter and Thyme Hill)
4.10 Hardline @ 28-1 (7 places)
4.50 Nurse Susan @ 18-1 (5 places)

We obviously may have a lost a few points overnight but this is the final bet as we had to go in now well before the off.

We have used Ahorsewithnoname in the 100-1 shots as an each way extra bet and have used our free bet on Ain’t That A Shame in the 5.30 just to give a bit of interest through the card.

[Mike]

Hi
What a day Sassy But Classy was brought down by another horse Finian Destruval ran on to be third (betting without Allaho) but does not count as there was a non runner Hardline pulled up and Lisnagar Oscar lost.
By now I am thinking why do I bother then we hit the 4.50 and as they run up the hill we have Love Envoi (tipped at 14-1) who we need to bring in all of our outstanding ante post wagers just beating Ahorsewithnoname who we tipped up on here last night and used on the 100-1 shots thread this morning. To round the race off Nurse Susan 20-1 the replacement for the wager for the switched thread horse Ahorsewithnoname also placed in the race. The only drawback was I nearly killed myself watching the race but it would have been a hell of a way to go.  🙂
As you can imagine results like that do not come around very often but make it all worth while.
This means we have now had a return on two of our wagers of +22.42 points and +93 points and need Falcon Eight just to be placed to bring us in another tidy return tomorrow. 🙂
With this in mind we will take another punt on the last day before we total all of our wagers up but we will finish with a profit no matter what happens.

1.30 Knight Salute 20-1 (17-2 betting without Vauban and Pied Piper)
2.10 I like To Move It @ 19-2 (8 places)
2.50 Falcon Eight @ 25-1 (5 places)
4.10 Mighty Stowaway @ 25-1 (5 places)
5.30 Five O’Clock @ 16-1 (6 places)

[JoeH]

Good luck mate 👌🏻

[Mike]

Hi
Well a disappointing finish to the festival with Falcon Eight ending up a non runner but at least that bought a return back on most of the outstanding ante post wagers. This also means instead of being wiped out today we had Mighty Stowaway placed at 33-1 (BOG) linked in with the non runner which avoided a last day disaster.
We will total our bets but the preliminary tally for our Cheltenham exploits will come out with a small but tidy enough profit for all the hard work we have put in.  🙂
We obviously now have finished another thread off and once the Ten to Follow, Beat The Lotto threads and football season finish we will then re-vamp the site or change it over to a different social media platform.  🙂

[Author]

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