Cheltenham Countdown (archive)

[Mike]

I will now move on to day three of the festival and try my luck on the opening fixture the JLT Novice Chase for which the stats for the race are limited as it has only been run under it’s current guise for the last eight years but here goes:
8/8 winners were aged 6 or 7
6/8 were in the top 3 in the betting
7/8 winners ran in the last 54 days
6/8 winners had won last time out
8/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
7/8 winners had at least 2 previous runs about the 2 1/2 mile mark
6/8 had at least 1 previous win on or about the 2 1/2 mile mark
8/8 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
6/8 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
7/8 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
7/8 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
7/8 winners were rated 145 or higher
6/8 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 or 2 race
8/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season
7/8 winners had at least 2 wins that season
The problem here is that a lot of the runners will also be declared for the RSA chase over the longer trip but this then could also be an opportunity using the non runner no bet option. The theory is that you cannot lose your stake but if the defections from this race go in your favour the price you have obtained now could be a gift by race day.
With that in mind I will out up Ben Pauling’s Kildisart as my selection which is currently showing at 16-1 nrnb with bet365 and looks sure to start the race unless my tipping curse strike’s again…lol.
Kildisart looks to be improving with every run certainly fits the profile is highly thought of at the yard looks a solid option for the type of bet being used and makes for a good first selection for bet number three.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

We have another partial match in the JLT Novices’ Chase, as my current list of interesting horses is a follows:

DEFI DU SEUIL (10/3)

KIDISART (16/1)

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (25/1)

VINNDICATION (12/1)

My only concern for KIDISART is that he is prone to jumping errors, but he certainly has a big engine and could be top class if he learns to jump consistently well.

As for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle, I have not undertaken any analysis on the individual entries, but all 3 previous winners were trained by Willie Mullins and started favourite.

He doesn’t appear to have a hotpot this year, but he has a host of entries and I would not be surprised if he trained the winner again this time, perhaps at tasty odds, the trouble is which mare?

All the best.

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Nice to see we have found some common ground in what is a difficult task and once again although Defi De Seuil is probably the one to be on he is just to short in price for the type of place option bet I am targeting.
Vinndication was on my short list but I could not with any certainty know which race he would go for so not wishing to decimate my bets before the actual day I was swayed towards Kidisart as the logical selection due to the type of bet in use.
Thanks again for your input over the last few days as they have been testing for me to say the least but as of Tuesday’s turn of events it will give me more time to get stuck into the rest of the meeting and hopefully conclude phase one before taking on the handicaps.

Regards Mike

[Murphyslad]

Hi guys,

Really interesting to read your thoughts in regards to the festival. I will likely be doing a bit more analysis and digging a bit deeper in the next couple of weeks or so, and will try and ensure to post on here when I do.

There are three horses who I have entered into my Cheltenham bets tracker which match or are similar to some of your own shortlist horses, those being;

Lalor – Read same article as Rob, and also on my opinion of how the horse jumped at Cheltenham in the Arkle Trial, was a thing of beauty that day especially at the last fence and pretty much stuck in my mind ever since.

Commander Of Fleet – Was super impressed with this horse at Leopardstown, and thought he battled gamely to get his head in front near the finish. Just the type to appreciate the traits of Cheltenham, and in all honesty he’s the sort of horse who I’d want in a finish up the hill.

Santa Rossa – Another who impressed me with her attitude at Leopardstown, and again is one who I think like your good selves will more than appreciate the stiff finish at Cheltenham. Whether or not I back her on the day is another question entirely, but I’ve been known to back the winner of this race a few times over the years, and as you have highlighted, her price is more than a tempting proposition.

I have others in mind, including my long time fancy since March 18 in the shape of Presenting Percy for the Gold Cup, and also I have noted The Storyteller as a potential bet in the Coral Cup.

All in all, I’m not looking to get too heavily involved this year, as the adrenaline can sometimes get the better of me whereby I end up overthinking and worse still over betting with so much top class action at the fore. I’m going to try my best to be a little more selective this year, but I guess it remains to be seen whether I can remain in that mindset when the time comes.

Regards
David

[Mike]

Hi David
The more ealy doors opions the better for me as I tend to do all my Cheltenham betting in advance primarilry because of the way I bet but also to avoid be swayed by all the hype before the off. It is a risk not knowing the ground etc but 80% of the time Cheltenham rides good to soft but you pays your money and takes your chances ante post.

Well thanks to Annie Odds yesterday I have enough loose change in my pocket to cover the ante post bets and still buy a Walnut Whip (can you still get those..lol).?
So if my calculations are correct we now head straight to day four and the first race of the day the JCB Triumph Hurdle for which relevant stats are limited but of use.
I say limited as obviously it is for 4yo’s only so limits a few of the usual options and previous Cheltenham form does not appear to make any great difference results wise.
9/12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting
12/12 winners had their last run no more than 55 days ago
10/12 winners had at least 2 runs about the 2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 1 win around the 2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 139 or higher
11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Sir Eric has tamed all his serious rivals to date and Tiger Tap Tap and yard rival Gardens Of Babylon both look well held which whittles my short list even further. Paul Nicholls has two nice imports Pic D’Orhy may well need soft ground and has yet to see a UK racecourse but Quel Destin is proven hurdler and has battled back to get his head in front on his last two runs which proves his mental strength but my concern is one race too many syndrome as he goes out again tomorrow.
This leaves the joker in the pack which is Carlo Biraghi who has only had the one hurdle run but could not have been more impressive and using Andulusa and Pienta as yardsticks against Sir Eric’s form would be in with a shout on the day. This well bred ex flat horse was considered good enough to run in the Irish Derby and although beaten was not disgraced and at 16-1 nrnb is worth the risk.

• This reply was modified 5 years, 2 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

Right onward and upward as they say and I will bypass the Randox (being a handicap) and head on to the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle and as you may have noticed I love my hurdle racing. This race is a particular favourite of mine as it throws up plenty of big priced winners with two 33-1 shots winning in the last five years and the lowest priced winner in that time frame was 11-1 the stats are as follows.
10/12 winners were aged 6 or 7
10/12 winners had at least 1 run over 3 miles
9/12 winners had at least 1 win over 3 miles
12/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
9/12 winners were rated 140 or higher
10/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race
12/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
11/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Cheltenham form is not essential for this race but is of some use as about 50% of the previous winners had run here before usually winning.
The main problem here is that most of my shortlist including Easy Game and Sams Profile hold multiple entries between at least two races if not three and with Birchdale now being a little short in price has limited my options further.
However fortune favours the bold (I really must take more water with it..lol) and I will put Paul Nicholls Kapcorse up as my selection generally available between 16’s and 20’s bet365 have gone a very generous 25-1 which I will take.
Kapcorse is another French import who has taken time to settle but looks to have filled out this year has looked really impressive on his last two starts and looks certain to appreciate the step up in trip.

[Mike]

This leaves the Foxhunters Chase as the last race to cover before consolidating my first round of Cheltenham options. Although it is a bit early to dive into there is one I have had my eye on since last year so will take the bull by the horns and have an early punt on this one as it runs tomorrow and a good run would shorten the price right up.
I will start with the usual statstical analysis which is as follows.
10/12 winners were aged 8 or older
8/12 winners won or placed on their last run before Cheltenham
9/12 winners had their last run within the last 43 days
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at over 3 miles
10/12 winners had at least 8 previous chase runs
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
9/12 winners had a rating of 134 or higher
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run that season
By the nature of the race it an older more exprienced horse with a proven abiltiy over fences that prospers here as many horse do not make it to the end of the race.
The horse I am putting up for the race is Caid Du Burlais who was fifth in this race last year and although hailing from a small yard this runner was inherited from the Nicholls yard just down the road where there are still close ties.
Although losing out to the Nicholls winner Pacha Du Polder last year the ground had gone against the selection by the last race and I fancy a better run can be had this year.
The price on offer with bet365 is 25-1 which I will take today when I have put together my final pre-emptive strike at the festival before moving on to the handicaps etc.

[Mike]

This last part of phase one has caused me the most headaches as I had to revert back to the Mares Novice Hurdle to obtain the fifth selection. It was still a difficult choice but I feel that Lust for Glory will be the better horse in a truly run race. Although this looks the weakest bet to date I am happy enough and will now take a back seat while I start work on the handicaps.
I had to miss out on the Arkle Chase as the original selection Dynamite Dollars will miss the rest of the season.
I have had several selections that have just been too short in price for ante post betting but bear in mind I am targetting each way doubles with early bets and am looking for runners that should turn up on the day and look to have been targetted at the specific race.
The last of the phase one bets are as follows
JLT Novices Chase Kildisart 16-1
Mares Novice Hurdle Lust For Glory 11-1
Triumph Hurdle Carlo Biraghi 16-1
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Kapcorse 25-1
Foxhunter Chase Caid Du Berlais 20-1
This is the usual ante post mix of 10x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator at 1/4 odds non runner no bet. The only change is I had already missed the 25-1 on offer on Caid Du Berlais which amazingly had shortened up whilst I was typing..lol.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

When I get around to analysing the Ultima Handicap Chase, I shall start by applying some of the following trends to reduce the number of horses that I have to consider in more detail.

Previous Cheltenham Festival run – 10/10

Days since last run no more than 45 – 9/10

Official Rating no lower than 142 – 8/10

No more than 9 chase starts – 8/10

Aged 6-8 years – 8/10

Last ran over at least 3 miles – 8/10

In addition, it is worth noting that last time out winners have been successful in 4 of the past 10 renewals, from 42 qualifiers for a level stake profit of 15.00 pts.

Will be interesting to see how our shortlists compare, as some of the above trends sort of contradict a few of those which you have quoted – both views are correct, but consider the underlying stats from a different perspective.

All the best.

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I am jumping the gun a bit with the handicaps but the cut off date for the final declarations is tomorrow and with the weights being declared hopefully by next Monday if you are quick you can sometimes get that all important few days in between the two announcements to search for the holy grail.
I know I am ever the dreamer but I think you know me well enough by now to realise that I do not follow the obvious way of doing things….lol. It was really nice to see how we both came up with the same 100-1 shot yesterday albeit a non runner. Just out of interest what would you have made of Thursday’s runner Annie Odds I am beginning to worry I am getting to predictable…lol.
However I digress Mr Big Shot I can see fits most of your handicap trends but obviously only runs twice a year so will crash and burn on that one.
I am now moving on to the next handicap which will complete a review of all of the races for day one of the festival. The race is the Close Brothers Novice H’Cap Chase it strangely has the same quirk as the Ultima in that the 6/7 of the last winners have been in some form of headgear and it also is not a good race for the favourites the statistical analysis is as follows.
9/12 winners were aged 6 or 7
12/14 winner were in the top six in the betting
10/12 winners weighed between 10st 11lbs & 11st 8lbs
10/14 winners had won or been placed last time out
11/12 winners had their last run within the last 45 days
10/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
10/12 winners had at least 2 runs around the 2 1/2 mile mark 19-21 furlongs
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners were rated 133 or higher
12/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
9/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
This is not getting any easier but Tom George’s Clondaw Castle looks a likely candidate and a lot will depend on where he goes this week as he one entry on Thursday over 2 miles and one on Wedensday over 2 1/2 miles. Should he run over the longer trip on Wednesday I would be more inclined to take the 10-1 on offer as should he bolt up he will surely shorten up just after the race.
Secret Investor has been beaten twice since going chasing but it has been in very good company he holds no Cheltenham entries to date and could well be being lined up for one of the handicaps.
Talkischeap I have already tagged for the RSA and Mr Big Shot is under consideration for the Ultima H’Cap so I will hold fire on a decision here until I see where Clondaw Castle goes this week but he is at the top of my list so far.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Just had a quick look at ANNIE ODDS and I doubt that I would have considered her on Thursday, so your air of mysticism remains intact.

I rarely even bother looking at Novice Handicap Hurdles, or Chases at any meeting as there is generally too little form for me to feel comfortable, plus the VALUE CALCULATOR tends to struggle in these races, so I doubt that I will be getting involved in the Close Brothers sponsored event.

All the best.

Rob.

[Mike]

I am going to bypass Wednesdays handicap’s as they enough to give an aspirin a headache and I will need more time with those. Therefore I will skip to Thursday for the first handicap race of that day the Pertemps H’cap Hurdle Final I have been sweet on one of Phillip Hobbs likely runners Wait For Me as if going straight to the festival this will be his first run over three miles since the wind op and that might just make the difference.
His run behind the useful Paddleyourowncanoe (over the shorter trip) last time out should have ensured he will hit the 140 mark and be eligible to run and the odds of 33-1 nrnb on offer with bet365 this morning may yet sway me to chance this one.
I say chance this one because if you look at the following statistical analysis he would have been fine up until recently but the race dynamic has changed over the last three years with a much younger horse has won it and all three were Irish raiders.
This race as with so many handicaps has been a graveyard for favourites and in general the more fancied runners at the head of the market. Also previous Cheltenham form or experience appears to have little impact on the result.
However here are the stas as usual but bear in mind the last three years results as mentioned as the trends appear to be on the move.
9/12 winners were aged between 6and 8 years old
10/12 winners had their last run with the last 48 days
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 3 miles or further
12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles
9/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 133 or higher
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
There is another selection The Organist at 20-1 nrnb that follows the same principle as Mr Big Shot who was mentioned for the Ultima H’Cap in that I believe this J P McManus owned one has been put by with this race in mind. I can see no futher declarations in sight and no festival entries made and Oliver Sherwood is more than capable of getting one ready.
As you can see I am already beginning to waver and struggle with the handicaps but as mentioned I do not even know if any of the above are going to run but such is the fun of trying to find that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
nb: Having just logged out I recieved notification that A Great View another JP horse who blundered two out in this race last year has just been declared. I backed this horse last year and this one fits the recent profile to a treat is a generous enough 20-1 nrnb and if honest would be my current preference of the three.

• This reply was modified 5 years, 2 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

One last one for the day as I attempt to hit that magic window between the declarations and the weights to be alloted and the next race will be the second handicap on the Thursday the Brown Advisory & Merrilbelle Plate Handicap Chase. The stats are as follows but again beware as the age is variable and the Irish raiders have once again had a drastic effect over the last three years and recent form is not a neccessity.
10/12 winners weighed below 11st
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs at about the 2 1/2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
10/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs
9/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
10/12 winners had a rating of 136 or higher
10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
I had been looking at Nicky Henderson’s River Wylde for this one but having fallen last time out he has not been seen so since I will pass on this one at present unless he is seen to be returning to action in the next week or so.
Gary Moore’s Benatar was third in the JLT last year and having not hit the heights since may well be considered for this race this year. You would have to forgive his last run but runs well fresh and looks a nice price at 20-1 nrnb.

[Mike]

I will carry on with Thursday and finsh the day off by having a look at the last race of the day the Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase for which the stats are:
11/12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
10/12 winners weighed 11st or higher
11/12 winners had their last run within the last 80 days
9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at 3 miles or over
11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 6 previous chase runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
10/12 winners were rated 134 or higher
10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season
Some of the most notable stats that are missing to note are that winning form at Cheltenham or recent winning form is not essential as only one of the last eight winners had won that season. Pricewise last year an 8-1 shot won the race but the year before a 40-1 shot came home. This makes putting up a suggestion albeit not a tip at this stage nearly imposible but who dares wins etc. Horses that have run in this before do well and last years second Mall Dini 10-1 is well fancied to go one better but of more interest to me at the moment is the third home that day Squouateaur who is currently 20-1 having semed to have lost his love for the game but changed hands to Ben Haslam in January and it would be intersting to see if he gets an entry.
This means I will have to wait a day or two to see which way this race goes as Impulsive Star would be of interst but is currently declared for the Amateaur race on Tuesday.
So for now I will put up Calett Mad 20-1 nrnb who is a Grand National entry and is due to run again this weekend but if entered here would be at the top of my current list. This Nigel Twiston Davies runner was second behind Impulsive Star last time out and I believe would better off at the weights when they are announced.

[Mike]

That completes Tuesday and Thursday and I will now pop back to Wednesdays handicaps and have a bash at the first of the day and attempt the Coral Cup H’Cap Hurdle and the stats are as follows. However you can forget about the markets giving you a clue as to the winner as a 16-1 shot would be about par for the course in this one. Previous winning form and previous Cheltenham form are not essential.
9/12 winners were aged 5-7
9/12 winners weighed between 10st 6lbs & 11st 6lbs
10/12 winners had at least 1 run over 2 1/2 miles
9/12 winners had at least 6 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
9/12 winners had at a rating of 139 or higher
9/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
I would not usually list statistics under 10/12 but this is a tricky race and have bent the rules on this occasion and hope you can now appreciate why I originally bypassed this one.
For those of you who do not already know I have been an Apples Jade fan for some years and should Joseph Patrick O’Briens runner Early Doors get an entry here I will take the selection straight away as I feel the 16-1 would be a snip. This one has been well beaten by Apples Jade on his last two starts but has accounted for some good horses along the way and I am sure he has been set up for a race but which one.?

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