Cheltenham Countdown (archive)

[Mike]

This brings me on to the the last handicap on Wednesday the Fred Winter Juvenille H’Cap this race often as you would expect being for juvenilles throws up a few big priced winners favourites do not do well here and the statistics are as follows:
10/12 winners weighed between 10st-6lb and 11st-5lb
10/12 winners had their last run within the last 40 days
10/12 winners had at least 2 runs on or about the 2 mile mark
12/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over hurdle
10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
11/12 winners were rated between 124 and 134
10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Paul Nicholls usually has one up his sleeve for this race and Friend Or Foe at 10-1 looks a reasonable shout but I have my eye on a couple of Gordon Ellliots runners who both finished behind Sir Eric last time out.
Chief Justice holds an entry in the JCB but would stand a much better chance in this one whilst the filly Surin has multiple entries and is unlikley to run here. Therefore I am holding out for Chief Justice at 16-1 to see if he gets an entry.

[Mike]

This leaves me just three races to go those being the three handicap races on the Friday so I might as well start with the first the Randox County Hurdle which has the following stats which unsurprisingly do not have any reference to the favourite or being a fancied runners as being of any advantage. Neither does having won last time out seem to be particular positive and it is usuaually again a fairly obscure selection that is needed here which only compounds the problem further
9/12 winners have been aged 5 or 6 years old
9/12 winners weighed 11st or less
9/12 winners ran within the last 70 days
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
10/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 2m/2m 1f
12/12 winners had at least 1 win over 2m/2m 1f
10/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
12/12 winners were rated 132 or higher
This race is all but impossible to even hazard a guess as to what is going to turn up on the day let alone win but a possible forgotten horse would be Whisky Sour who ran third here last year. This one has recently been switching codes between the flat and hurdles circuits so if being given an entry is possibly the joker in the pack and a tidy looking 20-1 at present.

[Mike]

The end of phase two is in sight and I will go for the Grand Annual next as it appears to have been shuffled up to last race but one the stats are as follows:
9/12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
10/12 winners had at least 10 previous runs around the 2 mile mark
10/12 winners had at least 3 previous wins around the 2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners had a rating of 130 or higher
11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season
As you can see once again the winners tends to be a bigger priced selection and having won last time out or recently has little bearing on the result. Previous course form is an advantage and although a handicap chase previous hurdles form seem to have a bearing.
The most recent trend over the last five or six years is that the higher rated horses seem to be dominating the winners enclosure with 140 or over being a common factor.
Alan Kings Ballywood has an entry in the Arkle but that looks a step to far and if lowering his sights would be an interesting selection especially at the current 20-1 on offer. He ran a decent second behind Dynamite Dollars who was my original selection for the Arkle (now a non runner) and I would take this one if he is given an entry without the need to look elsewhere.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

You have got well ahead of me on this thread and I doubt that I will be able to chat he up in the near future.

However, I have a few comments which may be worth considering, as follows:

Coral Cup

As with the Ultima Handicap Chase, I have a few alternative trends which may assist us to unravel this conundrum:

No older than 8 years – 10/10

Last ran at least 30 days ago – 9/10

SP no shorter than 12/1 – 9/10 (not easy to assess in advance of the race).

Carried at least 11.02 – 5/6

Top 2 finish last time – 6/10

French bred – 5/10 for level stake profit of 31.00 pts (all 5 winners aged 7 years, or younger).

Cross Country Chase

It may be worth noting that this race has only been a Conditions event since 2016, having previously been framed as a handicap.

Therefore, it may be not be appropriate to apply the trends to this year’s race.

In reality, barring accidents it appears that TIGER ROLL has strong claims in his attempt to retain his crown, albeit current best odds of 5/4 are in my opinion far to short to consider a bet at this stage.

All the best.

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
No problem I was not expecting anyone to keep up as it is way to early for any serious punters to get involved especially when the runners have not as yet been declared…lol.
But you of all people should know I do look at things from a different angle (just have a look at todays selections on the daily chat…lol) but I always appreciate you getting involved when you can.
I will move on to the last race of phase two and put up the stats for the last handicap on the last day of the festival which is the Marti Pipe Conditionals Hurdle.
With the exception of Paul Nicholls this race has been mopped up by the Irish raiders with Wille Mullins having won it twice and Gordon Elliot has won the last two runnings.
This race again is a graveyard for fancied runners with only one favourite having ever won it and Cheltenham form is a bonus but not essential.
9/10 winners have been aged 5 or 6
10/10 winners ran within the last 52 days
9/10 winners had at least 1 previous run around the 2 1/2 mile mark
9/10 winners had at least 3 previous runs over hurdles
10/10 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
10/10 winners had a rating of 133 or higher
9/10 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season
My initial shortlist has been whittled down due to due to Lone Wolf and Danny Kirwan both being lightly raced for a tilt at the stronger festival races therefore I believe no handicap options will be availble due to there lack of qualifying runs.
However last years favourite Flawless Escape who finshed well down the field behind Gordon Elliot’s other two runners had a long break after that indicating that somthing was wrong on the day. He has now had just the one run this time over the jumps but now holds a declaration back over hurdles this weekend so if picking up an entry for this race it might be worth chancing the 20-1 currently on offer.

[Murphyslad]

Hi all,

I do not currently have a lot of time to input all the reasons why I feel that Mall Dini will be a good thing come March. However, I keep going over his latest run and note how well he seemed to be finishing off the latter part of that contest, and everything screams to me that it was a simple prep run. Second in the Kim Muir last year, I fully expect him to be on target to go one better this time around, and although I’m still tentative in terms of placing a wager, when the race is confirmed that he will be taking part in, I’m looking to potentially make him my NAP of the festival.

Interested to hear what you guys think on him?

Regards
David

[Mike]

Hi David
Thanks for the info and no matter how much we think we know an alternative opinion is always worth a read. As for Mall Dini I had covered him in my write up and had said that runners having run in this before usually do well and he would be an obvious choice he has already been well backed and is sure to run well. He is still in my shortlist along with the third home last year Squoaoteur who appears to have lost his way and changed yards. I am at present also awaiting to see if Impulsive Star and or Calett Mad 20-1 get entries.

Thanks for the input
Mike

[Mike]

Hi
Having been awaiting the handicap declarations I have now made a pre-emptive strike on my handicap selections which are as follows:
Coral Cup Early Doors 16-1
Fred Winter Chief Justice 16-1
Pertemps Wait For Me 33-1
Kim Muir Impulsive Star 12-1
Grand Annual Ballywood 20-1
Martin Pipe Conditional Flawless Escape 25-1
These were done at 15x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator.
The markets were down and being adjusted on some of my other selections so I will update those when they become avaliable. I am generally pleased at the results of this thread as an exercise as this was just taking last years (https://olbg.ie/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=5421&start=60) ante post thread one step further.
The concept of (phase two) was to make an educated (or some would say uneducated…lol) ante post guess at what type of horse would run in each handicap and then make a selection before the actual declarations were even made. Apart from the Ultima I have somehow managed to obtain a selection for all the handicaps except the Cross Country Chase which I deliberately bypassed.
This now leaves me to wait until the dust settles as I still have Benatar in the Plate and Whisky Sour in the Randox (for which the markets are still being adjusted) plus Clondaw Caste in the Close Brothers (but I missed the price) and of course a re-selction in the Ultima.
The brilliant news for me is that bet365 have just introduced an edit option for bets already placed which means I now have an extra option in my locker should any of my original bets become non runners.

[Mike]

Hi All
I have struggled a bit to come up with the final set of each way doubles and the obligatory each way accumulator but will settle on the following five for the time being subject to non runners and any possible impending (drastic) going changes.
The Arkle Ornua 10-1
The Ultima Singlefarmpayment 14-1
National Hunt Chase Mortal 20-1
Brown Advisory Plate Benatar 20-1
County Hurdle Whiskey Sour 20-1
This looks the weakest of the bunch so far but as an initial foray into the festival means I know have an each way shout in all the races except the Close Brothers and the Cross Country race.
I have Clondaw Castle for the Close Brothers but at the price will use him in with my win bets which will include the following selections ranked in order of preference value wise.
Champion Bumper Envoi Allen 4-1
Foxhunters Chase Ucello Conti 7-1
Triumph Hurdle Quel Destin 7-1
Champion Hurdle Apples Jade 2-1
Close Brothers H’Cap Clondaw Castle 8-1
These will be 10x 1 point win doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I am no closer to narrowing down my selections for the Cheltenham Festival, but have spent a fair bit of time reading the thoughts of a number of pundits and undertaking plenty of background analysis, so at least I feel that I am making some progress.

In particular, I have undertaken further analysis regarding the Gigginstown, Gordon Elliott combination to identify key race types, linked to the use of certain jockeys.

I have also identified a number of preferences for the top jockeys based on race types (hurdles/fences), course (old or new) and grade of race (Grade 1, Handicaps and other lower grade non handicaps), which I hope will provide a useful angle.

I see you have selected WHISKEY SOUR for the Randox County Hurdle, which is a race in which Willie Mullins has a strong record, he is certainly an interesting contender, especially if he ends up being ridden by Paul Townend, who is rather a specialist at the festival when riding over the smaller obstacles.

All the best.

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I was not realistically expecting anyone else to come up with selections before the final entries weights and ground conditions had been confirmed.
This was more of a pet project which was an extension of last years and if by any fluke I should turn a profit I will be taking it another step forward next year.
However it will be interesting to see how everyone else’s selections come out as I have all but finished with this thread with the obvious exception of possibly replacing any non runners or changing any should the ground turn sour before the off. I have obviously based mine around the premise of Good/Good to soft on the opening day.
I look forward to seeing what everyone else comes up with.

[Mike]

Hi All
Just an update that with now only a week to go I have to date only had the one non runner from all of the bets laid for this thread and that was Carlo Biraghi who I had originally placed in one of the earlier bets which included the Triumph Hurdle.

JLT Novices Chase Kildisart 16-1
Mares Novice Hurdle Lust For Glory 11-1
Triumph Hurdle Carlo Biraghi 16-1 Picd’ohry 12-1
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Kapcorse 25-1
Foxhunter Chase Caid Du Berlais 20-1
This is the usual ante post mix of 10x 1 point each way doubles and a1 point each way accumulator.
As you can see this has now been replaced by Picd’ohry which is now allowed under the new bet365 edit bet scheme I do hope not have to make any other changes as I have been incredibly lucky to date but am expecting to have to make some further alterations at some stage before the festival starts.

[Mike]

Hi All
I will now update the past few months selections as the moment of truth is upon us.
The most relevant bet for tomorrow has the following runners involved as three of the four selections are set to come under orders on the day one.
The Arkle Ornua 14-1
The Ultima Handicap Singlefarmpayment 14-1
National Hunt Chase Impulsive Star 12-1
(Impulsive Star replaced Mortal who now runs elsewhere)
Benatar is a non runner at the festival
Randox County Hurdle Whiskey Sour 20-1
Originally there were five selections but with only Mortal being replaced the original 10x each way doubles and each way accumulator have now become 4 each way singles 6 each way doubles and an each way accumulator.
Bet number two has two runners going on the first day and has also been reduced by one therefore has again become 4 each way singles 6 each way doubles and an each way accumulator.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Mister Fisher 11-1
OLBG Mares Hurdle Roksana 16-1
Ballymore Novices Hurdle City Island 10-1
Talkischeap is now a non runner at the festival
Champion Bumper Abacadabras 25-1
This bet is probably my best chance of a return as all of the runners are showing tonight at less than double figures so fingers crossed.
I will update the other bets tomorrow morning.

[Mike]

Hi All
Having checked through this morning for non runners etc I am relatively happy to start updating the second batch of ante post bets that have been listed on this thread but obviously none are cast in stone until they run.
My only ante post bet placed as win options has been hampered by Clondaw Castle now running in the Arkle as I was convinced he was going to be real deal in the Close Brothers Handicap later in the day.
This leaves me with win singles on short priced runners which is fine but as a tactical option I will replace him with Benie Des Dieux in the OLBG Mares Hurdle as I have a cracking price on my each way shout with Roksana who has shortened up to be second favourite.
Champion Hurdle Apples Jade 15-8
OLBG Mares Hurdle Benie Des Dieux 10-11
(Clondaw Castle non runner now goes in the Arkle)
Champion Bumper Envoi Allen 3-1
JCB Triumph Hurdle Quel Destin 6-1
Foxhunters Chase Ucello Conti 5-1
This bet remains the same which is 10x win singles and an each way accumulator however I may have lost a point or two when altering the bet but that is swings and roundabouts as I gained a price on Ornua in a previous bet.
It should be noted win bets are not my forte but as I have designs on entering this site for a tipping competition next year thought I had better get some practice in…lol.

The next bet is looking a little weak at the moment but as the rest it was designed to try and get an each way double in and is the only original bet still standing in its original glory and would be a huge to boost to me if I could get a return from this one.
Champion Hurdle Sharjah 9-1
Champion Chase Sceau Royal 14-1
Ryanair Chase Aso 16-1
Stayers Hurdle Bapaume 20-1
Gold Cup Might Bite 14-1

This bet has possibilities and has a non runner so also now has the 4 each way singles 6 each way doubles and an each way accumulator. However all of these run later in the week so may be subject to an upgrade if any further non runners appear.
JLT Novice Chase Kidisart 16-1
Mares Novice Hurdle Lust For Glory 11-1
JCB Triumph Hurdle Picd’orhy 12-1
(Kapkorse is now a non runner at the festival)
Foxhunter Chase Caid Du Berlais 20-1
With the exception of Lust For Glory all the other runners have shortened up to 8-1 or less and this would be another big boost for the thread if I could get something back here.

[Mike]

As a final thought win lose or draw I hope this has been a worthwhile thread to follow and thanks go out to Rob and David for getting involved especially Rob as it is rare for me to take a punt on someone else’s work but Frodon at 20-1 for the Ryanair is still looking good.

I will attempt to use some these selections everyday for the other threads just to keep them ticking over but unless there are any alterations due to non runners it is now time to face the music and hope the post mortem on this thread is not going to be too depressing. 🙂

[Author]

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