Taking An Edge

[Clarence]

Hiya, we were wondering what would happen if we only used events that had promotions attached. This would include money back bets or price boosts etc
The first example being tonight’s six nations game between France and Ireland. Paddy Power are offering money back and Bet365 will give you 25% on 3+ leg bet builders
I know Mike has had a dabble on tonight’s game (Good luck 🤞😊) and will post later.
If anyone sees any offers of interest please post.

[Mike]

Hi
I will point out that there is no guaranteed wins and there are T&C’s attached but if you already have an opinion on a game the use of such offers can be very productive. I had been of the opinion there would be tries tonight as France have scored a minimum of 19+ points and Ireland 13 + points individually in there last eight matches.
France have home advantage and are flying high so Ireland could be in for a tough night.
With this in mind I have gone 5 points for France -13 to win @ 1-1 (money back with Paddy Power) then I have gone 4 points on Ireland +27.5 to win with over 4 tries and more tries than penalties scored in the game @ 11-10 (plus a 25% price boost) obviously with Bet 365.
The only thing that could go wrong (in theory) tonight is a low scoring game with converted penalties deciding the game.

[Clarence]

Well done Mike good start to the thread and a good example of how it works 😊👍🏉

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Thanks..In theory it was a shot to nothing but as it worked out both bets came in as we combined our opinion on the match with two differing options that gave us the opportunity for a profit if either came in but also that both could come in.
I will go into detail if required tomorrow but for now the simple facts are we won +5 points with the Paddy Power bet and we also picked up +4.5 points on the bet365 wager so double bubble.
This gives the thread a +9.5 point start and as it is open to active members as a joint thread please feel free to give it go if you see anything that you think is relatively fool proof.
If you look at Ridiculous Ideas for 2026 the wager on Pumas Dream today it also provided a profit today but that was simply a bookmakers error that was we thought was worth a punt. But hopefully it gives you another idea of we are looking at on here. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Quite a few firms are offering free bets or money back offers on the Liverpool v Man City game tomorrow so if there are any mathematicians out there who want to have dabble go for it. I will do the same as before but need a bit of time to work out (what appear to be) the safest option.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I will be happy to join in, but would ask that this thread is protected with a separate password against being viewed by non members.

Many thanks,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
We are looking at options to secure this thread but in the meantime would suggest anyone who is loathe to give away trade secrets for fear of having loopholes closed down use the The Bletchley Park Gang thread and I can link the article to that and just post the results on here. ?

As is stands I have scoured all the markets in the Liverpool v Man City game and can come up with only a few very basic fail safes resulting in very little reward.
This is probably because the old enemy is very adept at cornering the market (no pun intended) when it comes to football offers. In this instance I would ignore the bet boosts just take the 2 point free bet and go with your instinct. My opinion for this thread would be both teams desperately need all three points and I can see it being a hectic game.

BTTS in both halves
Both Teams over 4.5 corners
Both teams to receive a card

This works out at 24.97 so we are looking for a dream 50 point win (no stakes involved returns or losses).

[Author]

Posts