Speed Ratings Irish Hurdlers

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Finally taken the plunge (nice to see) and all your own work, whats the worse that can happen….lol. I have just wasted two weeks working out that trying to predict Flat, PTP and NH ratings to Hurdle ratings is nearly impossible so I do see the issue with Beautiful Chaos.
As for our going back to our standard ratings and putting Beauforts Storm up on the thread for 6 places embarrassingly he nearly wins the race coming second at 40-1 to the odds on Spasiba.
He was available at 22-1 without the eventual winner or 12-1 without both Spasiba and Jersey Des Brosses (which may have been taken…lol) but I played to safe for the thread. 🙁 It will take a while to live that one down.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
That worked out really well with Mayo Shirocco (the PTP runner) being the only one to split up the top five of your market. I am guessing you will be looking for Koo Star as a possible extra markets wager being as it is the odd one out at a whopping 100-1.

[Clarence]

Hiya mike , yes not a bad result 😊
the best odds in racing post this evening are
Cool Park 15/8
Amboyna 4/1
Fillusin 4/1
Mayo Shirocco 6/1 ? as Mike said not one I would have chosen🤔
Party Dress 9/1
Paudie’s Wings 9/1
Koo Star has gone to 66/1 so an interesting one look at , Mike spotted him at 100/1 earlier
and Beautiful Chaos is 20/1 🤔

[Mike]

Hi Suds
I had the faith and took the 19-2 in the early markets for 6 places on Koo Star but she could go either way now. The next step I guess after tomorrows race would be to reassess the weight allowances we are giving as Koo Star has both the mares allowance and a 7lb claim.

[Clarence]

Hiya , interesting thought about weight allowance 🤔
Looks like Mayo Shirocco is a non runner so the top 5 are in 🤞 as for Koo Star will look on my break time in work 😄 at 11 see what happens

[Clarence]

Hiya ,Looks like 13/1 for 6 places with Koo Star now. So I will have a go too 🤞 good luck to us both Mike 😁

[Mike]

Hi
Suds first effort had the market side of things more or less spot on but Koo Star could not get into sixth place. This has inspired us to look into the allowances as this has happened before. As for the thread new member “Hopefull” has been sending us his notes on the flat/AW and just for fun I have had a dabble with a race he has been working on and come up with Mojomaker at 11-1 for 5 places in the 7.00 at Southwell. Bear in mind this is the dreaded flat (which would not be our specialist subject on mastermind) and the bet is just my take on the race as I just had to have a play with the figures….lol.

[Clarence]

Hiya Hopefull, welcome to the fun, 🙂 and thanks Mike it turned out quite well .
Cool Park (1st)
Amboyna was in 2nd till he unseated his rider 😂
Fillusin (2nd)
Party Dress (5th)
Paudies Wings 4th
Happy with my first try , definitely look into allowances for next races tho 🤔
But the 10 to follow is starting Friday 🙂 I see Mike has posted our lists 😁🤞 good luck everyone

[Mike]

Hi
We will be switching back to the standard winningposts thread soon as our season is about to start again. In the meantime I have still been playing with the Flat,NHF and PTP comparison sheets and would be chuffed if the 40-1 shot Black Soul were to outrun his odds. He runs against the well fancied Irancy in the 2.00 at Punchestown tomorrow and the 10-1 for 6 looks the best option at the moment.

[Mike]

Hi
We had to come back to this thread for tomorrows race the 2.05 at Thurles as several of the runners are re-opposing from a race we did last week and it is going to be an interesting exercise. Below is our idea of how the race will pan out which is totally different from the existing tissue odds.
Fillusin 9-2
Paudie’s Wings 16-1
Reina Del Mar 9-4
Meet My Loreley 4-1
Ad Caelum 16-1
Groovykindalove 2-1
Now Fillusin and Paudies Wings head our market and raced against each other last week. Our best guess is that if the race was as good as we rated it we are on to a good thing. If not we crash and burn but such is life when you dabble with new ideas….lol. Fillusin would be a standalone bet and Paudies Wings would be an extra markets wager.

[Mike]

Hi
Ominous that both our selections are drifters this morning but that may be because Groovykindalove is being backed as though she can’t lose.
That means we have made a boo boo somewhere or….. ?. But we have to go in as the other sheets have panned out well so far.
Fillusin was taken at 5-1 this morning as straight each way with best odds guaranteed
Paudies Wings 33-1 has been taken at 12-1 betting without Groovykindalove and Reina Del Mar (both in our short list)

[Mike]

Hi
Fillusin came second but unfortunately Paudies Wings pulled up having gone off like a bat out of hell at the start so we will have to try another race. The race will be 12.12 at Tipperary
Finnicky Filly @ 10-1
Shing Shilla 20-1 but we have gone with 10-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi
For those who have seen the drift on Finnicky Filly do not stress it most bookies have best odds guaranteed. It also gives us the option to go in again at 10-1 for 5 if you still feel the love…lol.
We are also going in for a novelty bet (for us) which is a mixed tricast in the 1.22 at Tipperary our sheets have been working well of late but the prices have been a little short for us to back. However in todays race we have the following three clear in our market so…why not. ?
Jazz De Cotte
Gorvitho
Taponthego

[Clarence]

Hiya, as well as watching our 10 to follow horses today I am going to have a try at a 3-Y-O maiden hurdle at Punchestown at 11.30 to try out some new speed ratings, I like Maxios Prime who is 150/1 but will take him at 23/2 for 10 places with bet 365 , also liking kaptain Bay at 12/1 for 4 places 🤞 wish me luck 😁

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Well not too shoddy for a first go from the new 3yo lists with Maxios Prime grabbing 10th place (they all count). If we can now get the rest of the sheets on board before the new year we should have a decent spread of 4,5 and 6yo’s which means we can hit the handicaps as well.

[Author]

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