Speed Ratings Irish Hurdlers

[Mike]

Hi
Well we had to push our luck and it will be an interesting race tomorrow. Obviously we think Romeo Coolio is too short in the market at 1-4 and will be looking for Harry’s Legacy to be supported in from the current 9-1 (bet365). Cutthewire is where he should be but Grey Fable @ 66-1, Yarraman Makarrata @ 100-1 and Wayside Lady @ 200-1 we believe are all overpriced and could all be backed in the extra markets.
Now this is the first time we have tried this new set of calculations on any depth and we will also be looking at the 1.40 at Cork on Sunday which is a really tricky race but in for a penny in for a pound.
Reina Del Mar
Meet My Loreley
Groovykindoflove
———-
Eve’s Hope
Midnight Eagle
Huscari
Kyle Valley
Vroomvroomboo
Blue Mosque
Aruntothequeen
We will update our wagers on tomorrows race in the morning (if not late tonight) as we will be playing these on the Betfair Exchange. Then it is just a case of awaiting Sundays race to be priced up before we go in again. Does anyone else think this is going to be an expensive weekend.

[Mike]

Hi
The painful weekend is looking more likely by the hour but these things do happen when you try new ideas out. Here are the best prices we could obtain bearing in mind there are limited markets available when you have such a short priced favourite.
Grey Fable @ 13-1 for 6 places
Yarraman Makarrata @ 12-1 for 8 places
Wayside Lady @ 14-1 for 8 places
This looks like a one horse race and Romeo Coolio is being backed off the boards with the money not just going on the horse to win but by how many lengths. Unfortunately although obviously the class horse in the race I could not bring myself to contemplate backing a horse yet to jump an obstacle in public at such short odds. The same applies to Harry’s Legacy but with 10-1 still on offer this morning an each way bet looks the way to go here. As we are always looking for options and whilst we were looking through the markets we noticed this little gem on
Betfair.
Grey Fable 16-1 E/W 3 places Betting without Romeo Coolio 6-1 E/W 3 places
Grey Fable 16-1 E/W 3 places Betting without Harrys Legacy 22-1 E/W 3 places
Is it me having a senior moment or am I dreaming….lol.
This applies through the card for some ridiculous prices and looks to good to be true especially if for any reason Romeo Coolio does come unstuck.

[Mike]

Hi
The painful weekend has started and we had our first whitewash for a long time. 🙁 However it is a new idea and the bare results are not as bad as they first look. We Wanted Grey Fable for 6 places he came 8th we wanted Yarraman Makarrata for 8 places he came 9th and Wayside Lady who we also wanted for 8 places was in third place coming off the final bend before falling two out and would surely have come in had she not fallen.
To compound a bad day Harry’s Legacy went wrong early doors and pulled up after jumping only two fences so we will never know how he would have done.
With this in mind we will continue the idea and hope that either Reina Del Mar 14-1 or Huscari 66-1 can save our bacon tomorrow and keep the experiment alive. They are both unraced over hurdles but both show up quite well on our new speed rating conversion table. We will update the thread tomorrow as usual.

[Mike]

Hi
We already have a non runner in today’s race and I am not sure whether this his help or hinder our chances of producing a get out of jail free card for us after yesterdays bit of bad luck. We have taken the following prices but desperately need one of these to do well for us to continue with the new conversion table theory. We did feel we were a tad unlucky yesterday but you have to be practical with new ideas and know when to re-assess a situation.
Reina Del Mar @ 10-1
Huscari @ 19-2 for 7 places
Now if yesterday was anything to go by we have left the wager too long and missed the 8 places on offer last night for Huscari (so you know where that one will finish…lol) and having missed the 14-1 fourth place now looks booked for Reina Del Mar. The new ratings table hangs in the balance (but that is what makes it interesting).

[Mike]

Hi
Well that was a bit better and with Reina Del Mar finishing second it inspired me to check back on my previous results and in doing so we have found an error in the Excel program and have now adjusted it.
We will be looking to try this out on the first two races at Clonmel on Thursday if not the 1.40 at Fairyhouse tomorrow. This will all depend on how many runners are likely to go to post in each race and how many of the field have actually run under rules.

[Mike]

Hi
Thursday’s meeting at Clonmel looks favourite for a wager or two but there is no harm in trying the new sheet out tomorrow in the Fairyhouse race. Here we would be looking to back (for a price for a minimum of seven places) either or all of the following which are currently priced up in the standard market at the prices listed.
Lea Lass 100-1
Scarlet Purse 50-1
Fire Force at 66-1 (would be the third option).

[Mike]

Hi
We are working on the two Clonmel races for Thursday but in the meantime here are the best prices available for the 1.40 at Fairyhouse today.
Lea Lass drifting to 125-1 but available at 19-2 for 7 places
Scarlet Purse 50-1 but 11-1 for 6 places looks best
Fire Force 80-1 is another drifter but 19-2 for 7 is available

[Mike]

Hi
We had another neither here nor there day today in our trail run with Fire Force placing 5th but the other two finishing only managing 9th and 10th.
However we have already done both of Thursdays races and subject to a drastic change in ground conditions we will put two selections up for each race at Clonmel that will probably start as favourites but such is life.
12.20 Lady Rose Hackett and Ad Caelum
12.55 Herbies Rover and Ballinboe Blaze
Assuming these will at the head of the market we will update our each way extra selections which are likely to be as follows
12.20 Rut Daniels
12.55 Only You Nora

[Mike]

Hi
Well obviously I have made an error somewhere as in the 12.55 whilst we were anticipating a big price and an each way extra on Only You Nora we were not expecting Ballinboe Blaze to be trading at 80-1. But that’s what the sheet tells us so we will take the following prices tonight and hope one of them steps up to the plate tomorrow.
12.55 Ballinboe Blaze @ 20-1 for 5 places
12.55 Only You Nora @ 19-1 for 5 places
In the first race we are in no hurry as Ad Caelum is currently drifting and is 7-1 in places and Rut Daniels is 25-1. In this instance we would be looking for a bet without Lady Rose Hackett or without both favourites dependent on the markets and non runners.

[Mike]

Hi
Firstly a quick thank you to new member “Hopefull” who has sent some extra speed rating options over to us which will give us some food for thought. Whilst speed ratings are only one piece of the equation to finding winners knowing your selection is fast enough is always a good starting point. Now the obvious thing is to use a set of ratings from a specialist company (which can be expensive) or go with a free set of ratings ie as listed on the Racing Post. But unless dealing in handicap races often as not there will be no ratings available hence our attempts over the last week or so try converting Flat, NHF and PTP for comparison to our Hurdle ratings.
After today’s races we will print out our conclusion’s as we will then have a bit more information to work with then and we will put down a very basic calculation for your reference. As for today’s races we now have options on Ad Caelum @ 13-2 and/or Rut Daniels @ 18-1 both without Lady Rose Hackett.

[Mike]

Hi
In the 12.55 I was suspicious we had made a mistake with Ballinboe Blaze and he did not run that well but it was run at a ridiculously slow pace over the first mile and as we have checked our figures and can see no error it could just have been one of those days. Ad Caelum and Rut Daniels finished together in fourth and fifth place respectively which is about right. Unfortunately the three at the head of the market all ran to form which means we only got the one return which was Ad Caelum. We would have got both as returns had we backed without both favourites but as it turned out the 21-2 for five places on Rut Daniels would have been the best option.
We will try a couple of races Saturday as yesterday was another so so day on the new test sheets but this idea might be a step to far.

[Mike]

Hi
Well we probably have another Ballinboe Blaze on our hands in the 2.12 at Gowran Park as Light of Life 200-1 has shown some promise time wise. We would like to see this one finish in the top 9 but are not holding our breath…lol.
The 1.37 at Gowran Park is the main reason for posting here today as it will form the test ground for our new ratings table. We have added 5% to the flat times and 2% to the NHF times. Here are the results in the order for the first time hurdlers that we would like them to finish in.
Le Bugiste Flat
Status Green Flat
Cashdale Lad Flat
Pearl Of Australia Flat
Miss Corby NHF
Madam Jess NHF
Harrys Dream NHF
Dream Diamond NHF
This obviously shows a huge bias to the Flat horses having there first hurdle run but that is what our initial figures show us. Of the horse with experience of hurdling we would like to see the Kazakh D’Arthel and Kaikoura beat the other hurdlers home with Morell River hopefully to out run the 66-1 on offer.

[Mike]

Hi
I think we can conclude from today’s results trying to convert Flat times to correspond to possible hurdle times is really not going to work as two of the Flat converts (who were well fancied) either didn’t jump well or ran everywhere but where the were supposed too. I fully appreciate one of the Flat runners Cashdale Lad won the race but he was the exception to the rule. The NHF tables we will adjust but were reasonably happy with and we will continue to try an adjusted conversion rate on that topic.
As for the thread we will go back to the hurdle ratings where we were having some success but we still have six weeks to go before all of our data base selections will hopefully come to fruition. In the meantime we will be finalizing our Ten To Follow thread and keeping tabs on the other competition threads.

[Mike]

Hi
We will try and get back on track today by reverting to our hurdling database and go back in with Beauforts Storm in the 12.20 at Naas 50-1 but we used him for 7 places last time so the 12-1 for 6 places looks the best option today.

[Clarence]

Hiya 🙂 I have been using the new calcs sheet with Mike this weekend on a race on Tuesday at Fairyhouse 12.32
This is my first try so be gentle with me 😁
Ok so I think….
Fillusin
Cool Park
Party Dress
Paudies Wings
Koo Star
Amboyna
….will be top in the betting but without wild card Beautiful Chaos 😬 he is fast , but can he jump ? Now wait for the prices and see how I did and whether we can see some value in the prices for a bet👍

[Author]

Posts