Speed Ratings Irish Hurdlers

[Mike]

Hi
We have recently had a few inquiries over our “Speed Ratings” and how we work them out and as we are using them on our Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread we thought it was an ideal time to run the topic again. Now although the subject has been covered several times on the site most notably here Speed Ratings in the Archive section we will throw the idea out on here to take any questions or queries on the subject.

[Mike]

Hi
We will try and use our latest test race to show you how the world and its mother can all come to different speed ratings and why some people just don’t believe in them. Just bear in mind racing is all about opinions and feel free to form your own just please don’t criticize other peoples. Constructive solutions, notions and ideas are always welcome but be respectful. 🙂
The race we are looking at is the 3.03 at Clonmel today.If you looked at the Racing Post Top Speed ratings and listed them by their ratings they would be as follows.
Kilbarry Ce Ce (TS 92) (23.30)
Ad Caelum (TS 91) (23.35 to 23.59)
Milanway (TS 83) (23.46 to 23.62)
Sallap (TS 77) (23.81)
Shing Shilla (TS 77) (22.02 to 22.28)
Whispering Hopes (TS 74) (22.85 to 23.06)
Koo Star (TS 73) (24.52)
etc etc
The rest have a TS (Topspeed Rating) of 66 or less. We have listed these along with our ratings just as an example of varying opinions. With the Racing Post ratings there’s are rated high to low and are worked out professionally by a large team of computer savvy experts. Mine are the highlighted ratings and are rated low to high with a tolerance range and are done by a now retired old man who struggles with excel…lol.
Now the Racing Post ratings are used along with other factors to achieve an RPR rating which is why Tareze who has the highest RPR is the odds on favorite.
We have a similar system to achieve our personal tissue odds ( Forming Tissue Odds ) but we use our speed ratings to look for value selections at what we believe to be inflated or value odds. For today’s race opinion see yesterdays Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread.

[Mike]

Hi
Yesterdays race worked out relatively well and would have kept us out of the poor house and we will try the same trick again today in the 3.10 at Sligo.
Caman Eileen (TS 99)
Newtown Rambler (TS 85) (22.64)
Will Wilde (TS 64)
Final Flutter (TS 44) (22.05 to 21.09)
This time as we are looking for value we take Final Flutter @ 12-1 betting without both Artic Lane and Newtown Rambler.
Once again we have a very short priced favourite by way of Artic Lane who is unrated having never jumped a hurdle in public and as opposed to Tareze yesterday I think this one is beatable.
Drumcliff Bay 16-1 has a decent rating on our books but has not run for a while so watch for market moves and finally Heading South 66-1 although a big drifter is starting to look tempting for 6 places.
As I am due my comeuppance so this probably means Arctic Lane will win by a country mile and Final Flutter will come stone last. But such is life…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
Another reasonable shout as Final Flutter placed fourth and as Newtown Rambler won it we get paid out on the place part of the bet for another small profit. We put up our four which duly filled the first four positions home and we also indicted we fancied the favourite to get beaten which it did.
We are looking at the 3.03 at Galway and here we think its more or less a match between Sporting Glory and Addragoole we have taken Sporting Glory in our Beat The Lotto (£) competition.
As for our value wager/s we like the look of Beauforts Storm 33-1 and Seskin Flash 28-1 but once again we will be looking for 6 places or a bet without both of the aforementioned horses which should end up being clear favourites.

[Clarence]

Hiya , We have started a speed ratings sheet for the 3yo olds. It’s a bit tricky as a lot of them haven’t run yet, but I like the look of Ceol Draiochta 12/1 in the 1.53 at Galway you can bet him without the favourites at 13/2 if you fancy. But as Mike says it’s a bit of fun 😁 so let’s see how he does.

[Mike]

Hi
We are queuing to get on here today as we update the sheets…lol. As an update to yesterdays post we can go in this morning with Beauforts Storm @ 10-1 for 7 places and Seskin Flash at 9-1 for 7 places. For those who have the faith or like a riskier wager 14-1 and 12-1 are available betting without the favourite’s.
Please do remember that all of our speed ratings will really come into effect in January when when the age bandings change and we will then have ratings for over 90% of the 4, 5 and 6yo’s Irish Hurdlers that run in 2025.

[Mike]

Hi
As a footnote to this thread we would like to thank a new member “Hopefull” who has sent some useful information on course times and statistics to us. We will cherry pick the Irish Course Information and compare it to ours. For those members (I can see nine at present) who have yet to post do not be afraid…lol. The site is just for fun but hopefully full of useful information and tips. We do not use your real names unless authorized by yourselves and by posting you become an active member and can join in the competitions for free.

[Mike]

Hi
Both Seskin Flash and Beauforts Storm placed in the top 7 which made for another little profit for the thread and Seskin Flash by managing to come fifth behind both the favourite’s also would have been a reasonable shout.
We are starting to get over confident now and will be doing two races both at Wexford tomorrow namely the 2.17 and the 2.50 and will post our thoughts tomorrow. But interestingly for those who like to take a wild punt once in a while Mackenstownsupreme currently 150-1 is available at 75-1 (Betfair) betting without both Marcus Furius and Fleur In The Park.

[Mike]

Hi
We have had a look at both races and with two stand out but short priced runners selected we have gone with a cheeky each way double on the following.
2.17 Marcus Furius @ 3-1
2.50 Keep Kool Co Co @ 5-2
We have a possible issue with our speed rating program as it highlighted Mackenstwonsupreme 150-1 last night at and has highlighted Ravelli in the 2.50 as another possible outsider punt for betting in the extra markets. This is very rare and probably a glich but at 22-1 betting without both Paul Collins and Keep Kool Co Co we just have to go in (just in case).
nb. As a footnote to the above post we have just checked the above calculations and can find no errors and the only thing that would have changed would be that with Arctic Lane now being a non runner in the 2.17 this would bring Stay Gold into the equation but at 11-1 for 5 places.

[Clarence]

Hiya, I got Makenstownsupreme at 17/1 for 6 places was tempted to go in again with the 21/1 but as it had drifted to 500/1 I left it.

[Mike]

Hi Sudsie
Strangely the race was not shown on bet365 and for the life of me I could not tell you why he drifted out to 500-1 (unless he played up) but it made my day. Although our 75-1 bet missed out by one place for me it was the bet of the weekend as it went along way to justifying our work on the ratings. No one fancied Mackenstownsupreme yet our ratings put him up as worth a punt.
As for the day Stay Gold Placed the double went down and in a similar vein to Mackenstownsupreme our other long shot Ravelli also placed sixth one off the wager and was another unfancied runner at 50-1.
Therefore although we dropped a couple of points for the first time this week for me it was the best day of the week.
As for tomorrow we head back to Wexford and those looking for a bet could try another each way double on Kakakh D’Arthel 7-4 in the 1.10 and Dream Once More 6-1 (4 places) in the 2.10.
We will be looking to back Miss Maxfort 14-1 in the 1.10 but without Kazakh D’Arthel when the markets are published.

[Mike]

Hi
We have two options this morning as Betfair are offering Miss Maxfort at 9-1 betting without Kazakh D’Arhtel. Whereas Skybet are offering 16-1 for 4 places so it’s a case of you pay your money you takes your chances.

[Mgame]

Hi mc
Nice touch today with Miss Maxfort are you sure you don’t want to share your data base. 🙂 Let me know if you want me to defend my title in the TTF.

[Mike]

Hi G
I have had worse days…lol. The database appears to be paying its way now and whichever way you went today you would have come out either +10.8 or +19.2 points up. The data base has sparked a bit of interest lately and I will re-post the core calculations again for those that missed them first time around. As for the Ten To Follow I have already organized a pool of horses ready for the competition and will post them some time this week.

[Mike]

Hi
As we have been doing reasonably well of late we are going to add in another little calculation regarding the conversion of Flat, PTP and NHF times to Hurdle times. The reasoning should be apparent as because we are targeting Hurdle races a fair proportion of these are Maiden races which include either unraced horses or horse switching from one code to another which makes it nearly impossible to concoct a set of Tissue Odds.
We are looking at the 1.00 at Down Royal on Saturday to have a dabble and in particular will be expecting Harry’s Legacy to be well supported. Although ridiculously early to be forming markets our early indications would suggest that the following horses will head the market.
Harry’s Legacy
Cutthewire
Yarraman Makarrata
Grey Fable
Garrick Painter
Romeo Coolio
Should this be the case the interesting runner from our point of view would be Wayside Lady who if appearing at the bottom of the market, we could well be interested in. Please bear in mind we do not actually know which horses will even run on the day let alone the odds and going etc but it could be a very interesting experiment on the day.

[Author]

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