Rob’s 90/10 System

[Mike]

Hi Rob
These things are unavoidable but I imagine you must be pleased with the way it is going it looks a relatively stress free thread, maybe I should try one of those…lol.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

It has taken a lot of time and effort to develop this system, with plenty of failures on the way, plus some courage to continue when informed opinion tends to suggest that you cannot make a profit betting at short odds.

Today’s selections are:

12.00 Fairyhouse – KOM TU VOUDRAS – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/9

3.45 Chepstow – BANDE ORGANISEE – 5 pts for 6 places @ 1/7

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As the old saying goes – “pride comes before a fall”.

For the first time since I started this system back at the beginning of May, two successive selections have failed with KOM TU VOUDRAS finishing only tenth.

Having viewed the coverage of the race, I would not be surprised if the mare suffered a minor injury, as she weakened so quickly after losing the lead, but perhaps I am just clutching at straws, when in reality it was a case of poor judgement on my behalf as I decided at the last moment to ‘play safe’ on the favourite rather than betting on my intended selection TWO PAIR.

Still a loser is a loser for whatever reason and at least BANDE ORGANISE finished third for a 0.8 pt return on investment, resulting in a loss for the day of 10.2 pts.

Without further soul searching I will draw a line under today and start the necessary processes to hopefully claw back the profits that have been lent back to the bookmakers over the past couple of days.

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I think I may have strayed into panic mode today, as I am feeling a bit shellshocked after 3 losers in less than a week, which has caused me to take ridiculously short odds on the top 3 of the 5 selections at Punchestown today.

11.30 – COMBS – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/14

11.30 – QUINTA DO LAGO – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/14

12.00 – SANTO SOSPIR – 11 pts for 10 places @ 1/16

1.05 – ROCKY’S DIAMOND – 5 pts for 3 places @ 1/3

3.20 – GRANDY LANE – 10 pts for 4 places @ 1/10

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I have been looking through all of the threads recently as we approach a new years racing and I am sure it is no coincidence that over 75% of the bad runs occur when the ground cuts up badly. I am running some data checks but for many years have considered taking a step from backing when the ground has been declared as “Heavy” 24 hours before the racing is due to go off. ?

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

There may be something in your theory and I would be interested in seeing your conclusions once you have run and analysed the data.

I always try to identify selections that are either proven on or are bred to handle the prevailing underfoot conditions, but like you have noticed that extremes of going can on occasions generate what appear to be unfathomable results.

That said, the first of the losers appears to have just had a bad day running 10 lbs below his best RPR which he achieved over the same track and trip on the all weather, whilst the second loser was pulled up having been badly hampered at the first hurdle, which is just a couple of unfortunate instances, which are impossible to foretell in advance.

Yesterday’s loser was just a last minute dubious call by yours truly, as her credentials for handling heavy ground were borderline at best, but she seemed to be OK in the lead until head, after which she weakened as if something was wrong with her – I guess it is unlikely that I will ever find out the reason for her poor effort, but will steer clear of her in future.

Fingers crossed for today’s selections!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Another disastrous day for the system, as whilst the first 3 selections had no trouble generating small returns, both ROCKY’S DIAMOND (fourth) and GRANDY LANE (sixth) failed. resulting in a loss of 12.7 pts.

At this stage I don’t know what has gone wrong – 5 losers in 6 days is catastrophic when betting at very short odds and I need some time to think things through, otherwise I will soon have wiped out all the profits that had accrued before last Thursday.

I have therefore decided to take a “time out” to enable me to reconsider my selection strategy, as I am convinced that the system targets are achievable, provided I get the selection criteria right.

I will return to this thread once I have a plan, but in the meantime will continue to participate on the site.

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
No problem always best to take a time out but for what its worth I made this very same point to Suds on the Trainer thread just this morning. In that, Gavin Cromwell who trained your “Grandy Lane” today is having probably his worse run of form in an age and currently would struggle to put out a runner to win a match against my milkman’s horse. I only noticed this as he also trains the nemesis on my thread “Fool Me Once” and is Suds nominated trainer this month.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having completed a full analysis of the systems performance over the past couple of days, I have concluded that there is nothing inherently wrong with the idea, albeit there are a few issues that I need to address, which I hope will improve the results going forward.

Firstly, I need to concentrate on the type of races which play to my strengths, which means ditching NHF races, Chases and handicaps, all of which have generated results that have not met the 90/10 targets.

Secondly, reducing the number of potential selections, should increase the amount of time I have to properly assess my remaining selections, which will hopefully reduce the risk of making poor choices.

Perhaps, less is more, so I will tentatively return to the fray at Tramore tomorrow, assuming that I can identify a worthy selection, or two.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one selection today.

12.35 Tramore – MOODY GIRL – 11 pts for 5 places @ 4/15

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well that result just about sums up the current fortunes of the selection for this system.

MOODY GIRL was another one to weaken quickly as if something was wrong to finish a remote seventh of the 8 runners, despite the fact that on paper she had ticks in all the right boxes.

Rob.

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