Ridiculous Ideas for 2024

[Mike]

Hi
I have just been awaiting the full result before updating and am feeling pretty chuffed with the result. With the obvious exception of Hunting Brook not managing to hold on for the win we had both of our full each way wagers placed in the top 4 and got both of our lay bets beaten. 🙂 Mr Sundancer disappointed but we did manage to get half the win part laid so reduced the loss there. I can see this throwing up a lot of questions and will await the queries before going over the final post mortem for todays “Ridiculous Idea” . 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
I knew there would be questions over this thread and please do post on it if you like. There is no such thing as a silly question especially when it come to exchange betting. The first query was on exactly why I had laid some horses and backed others and then why only the win part. Here is the original post containing my initial bets.

Oneforgonzo 4-1 11-4
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1
Hunting Brook 11-2 10-1
Milk Market 6-1 11-4
Gabriel Ranger 8-1 10-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1 33-1
This means I have taken an each way punt for 5 places on these
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1
Hunting Brook @ 12-1
Rockbrook @ 12-1
I will now put up a few win lay options on Mr Sundancer, Milk Market and to a degree Oneforgonzo.

When we formed our market (our prices in bold) any horse that we thought could finish in the top four was listed. If the price we had forecast was lower than the bookies price we believed we had a value bet therefore we backed them each way making sure we had the extra place (always look for an edge). We then had the option that we thought the bookies had to short a price on the favourites so we then looked to lay them (back them to lose). We only backed them to not win the race as we felt they could quite easily get a place. We also then laid the win part of the bet on Mr Sundancer as we thought at best he would place not win.
Unfortunately nobody took up the bet on the two favourites but we did get half the win bet matched on Mr Sundancer. Rockbrook then became a non runner so we then took an each way bet on Gabriel Ranger.

I will try this again soon and hopefully we can find a way of making it easier to explain exchange betting when we get all our bets matched so that you can see what is happening.  🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We finally had a race today which suited us down to the ground it was the 6.10 at Kilbeggan and we started to place our bets. We had taken the position using our speed ratings etc that Brave Fortune would win the race and we had assumed that Gaucher the then 6-4 favourite was over priced.
Having taken that position we backed Brave Fortune @ 85-40 to win and laid Gaucher @ 4-6 to lose. Using the 10 point profit/loss target stake to avoid to many fractions this left us in this position.
If Brave Fortune 85-40 wins we win our target +10 points but if it loses we lose 4.71 points the amount we had to back to obtain our 10 point target 4.71 divided by 40 x 85 = +10
If Gaucher wins 4-6 we lose 15 points as we had to lay it we become the bookmaker and have to pay out the person who took the bet. So to make 10 points we had to take the shorter part of the odds so its 10 divided 4 x 6 = 15.
Now you can see the problem if Guacher wins we also lose our 4.71 points (the win bet on Brave Fortune) so our total loss on the race would be 15 + 4.71 = -19.71. However if Brave Fortune wins we also get our 10 points profit from laying Guacher to lose (as he will obviously have lost for Brave Fortune to have won). This means we now have a +20 profit if the result goes our way.
Should any other horse win the race we lose our 4.71 the win bet on Brave Fortune but gain 10 points from Gaucher losing so would still make a profit of + 5.21.
We are now left watching the markets to see if our pricing up of the race was correct. ?? We want Brave Fortune to shorten in price and Gaucher to drift out in price.

[Mike]

Hi
We have been keeping an eye on the markets and it appears we may have been lucky and got our position on the race correct. Brave Fortune is now favourite and Gaucher has drifted. With this in mind we now have backed Gaucher to win for 7 points @ 11-4 on the exchange.
This may seem ridiculous as we backed him to lose this morning but bear with us. If Gaucher now wins we would win 19.25 points minus the 15 we laid for him to lose this morning so we make a +4.25 point profit. If he loses we lose our 7 points but make a +3 point profit from our 10 point for him to lose. So its a win win situation on Gaucher either way. If he wins we get a 5% deduction (on winning bets) as a commission to betfair so that reduces our winnings to 18.29 minus the 15 points we laid against him so its now only a +3.29 profit.

[Mike]

Hi
Brave Fortune is now 1-1 favourite but we can now lay him to lose for 7 points @ 10-11 (you can only take the lay price that is offered which can be less than the market price) which means if he now wins we lose 6 points but will make our 10 points from backing him this morning so we still win +3 points. If he loses we win our 6.36 points on the lay bet we just placed but lose our 4 points where we backed him to win this morning and still make a 2.36 point profit (less any 5% commission that may be taken).
Now I hear the cry what happens if they both lose. God only knows my head exploded about two hours ago. 🙁
Only joking you have still backed both to lose so it does not really effect and the result of the race in reality becomes a non entity. But where’s the fun in watching the race is the real question. ? The fun part to me would be to get a safe position on Brave Fortune and leave part of the bet to run but that would defeat the point of the exercise I suppose. 🙁
But as experiments go this one was successful but you would have to be a really serious punter with nerves of steel, plenty of cash and huge kahunas to play this game every day (so count me out). 🙁
I will redo the maths and someone will be bound to correct me if I have it wrong but it looks good to me as when you place bets on the exchange it list all your liabilities on each horse for you. We have devised our own data base which we may add to this to show you how it works (eventually).

[Mike]

Hi
We will be going back in with are usual restart next weekend and I can assure you there will be more ‘Ridiculous Ideas‘ and we may well follow up on some of the ones we tried before now we have had the time to recharge our batteries.

[Mike]

Hi
I have received a few queries about the “Ridiculous Ideas” thread and how I form the markets etc. I will drop a few ideas your way but unfortunately have to be a bit careful as some of my articles have been recently published without my knowledge so I do not want to give too much away.
As the “Speed Rating” article has already been published elsewhere here is an example of a race we are working on and features the 2.05 at Tramore tomorrow for which no prices are currently available. Now when you print these things you are putting your head above the trenches and may well get your ears shot off when or if it goes tits up but such is life. This is a tricky trial as it is a maiden race with little to go on but here goes.
Shining Silver 14.58 +
Mount Mandela 14.77 +
King In Love 15.71 /14.49 +
Truckers Cruising 15.32 /14.99 +
Spinola Bay =
Finnicky Filly =
Polly Poppins ?
Halla Paroisite ?
The Blaggard ?
Kathy Choice 16.06 /15.71 –
Fortuna Lora 16.01 –
Shantou Princess 16.04 –
Now the + sign indicates a positive time and a – obviously a negative time. The = sign indicates a solid time but unspectacular and the ? indicates the presence of a jockey claim that could benefit the time. I will update the thread later with the next step once we have an idea of the markets.

[Mike]

Hi
Shining Silver 14.58 + 12-1
Mount Mandela 14.77 + 50-1
King In Love 15.71 /14.49 + 22-1
Truckers Cruising 15.32 /14.99 + 11-2
Spinola Bay = 4-1
Finnicky Filly = 12-1
Polly Poppins ? 9-2
Halla Paroisite ? 12-1
The Blaggard ? 4-1
Kathy Choice 16.06 /15.71 – 22-1
Fortuna Lora 16.01 – 50-1
Shantou Princess 16.04 – 11-4
You can now see the issue as one of the the weakest times in my race forecast has been placed as the likeliest horse to win the race with Shantou Princess being the 11-4 favourite in the betting. ?
However with 4 places on offer with Skybet we do have some decent prices on our early selections and although Shining Silver @ 12-1 looks the best option Mount Mandela has the best price @ 50-1. King In Love 25-1 is an option but Truckers Cruising is short enough @ 6-1.
The middle of the markets has worked out well with The Blaggard,Spinola Bay,Finnicky Filly,Polly Poppins and Halla Parosoite filling the middle order.
This leaves Kathy Choice and Fortuna Lora which both the bookmakers and myself believe to be the unlikeliest winners of the race.

The 50-1 for 4 places is an obvious option but for the thread we will take the 10-1 for 6 places on Mount Mandela tonight and wait to see how the markets settle down overnight.

[Mike]

Hi
As “Ridiculous Ideas” go that was not so crazy Mount Mandela came second and should have won having gone two lengths up jumping the last only to get mugged on the line. However having taken the 50-1 myself last night and put the 10-1 for 6 places up for the site I am more than happy with the outcome. 🙂
Of the + positive ratings we posted two placed one fell one was a non runner.
Shining Silver 12-1 14.58 + Fell
Mount Mandela 50-1 14.77 + Placed Second
King In Love 25-1 15.71 /14.49 + Non Runner
Truckers Cruising 11-2 15.32 /14.99 + Placed Fourth
Of the ? ones who could benefit from the jockey claim one fell one won one placed
Polly Poppins 9-2 Fell ?
Halla Paroisite 12-1 Placed Third ?
The Blaggard 4-1 Won ?
As mentioned earlier the site is going through some transition as it has become apparent that although receiving between 30-40 hits a day (when tips are posted) the lack of people actively taking part has sadly dwindled. 🙁 Whilst on the subject a big heads up goes out to Sudsie who has over the last year been there to help compile a data base of speed ratings of over a thousand Irish hurdlers which will now form the vast majority of our forthcoming wagers.
With this in mind we may remove the tips page altogether and concentrate on the articles such as these in the hope of rekindling some interest.

[Mike]

Hi
We are going to have a dabble with a new twist on one of our previous “Ridiculous Ideas” and take an 18 runner maiden hurdle race, namely the 1.35 at Limerick this Saturday which has a mix of speed ratings and attempt to price them up. The horses involved are a mix of runners which have times ranging from Flat and/or NHF form only, through to flat and hurdle times and includes one newcomer who has never seen been seen out before.
This opens up a whole new bag of worms but it should be a bit of fun if nothing else. We will adjust the markets to include market moves this time.
We have placed them in the first instance using the speed rating multiplied by the weight carried Saturday less any jockey claims (already declared).
Shing Shilla
Come On The Lads
Korea
Banana Three
Mr Percy
Garrick Painter
Kazakh d’Arthel
Yarraman Makarratta
———-
Desert Haven
The Reel Martello
To The Wire
Grey Fable
Rapparee Champ
Herbies Rover
Jerrari ??
———-
Hangry
Gimme A Buzz
Balko D’age
Rorkes Drift
Indy Rules
Notimelikedpresent
The — dividing lines indicate the groups of horses where the times are very similar and tricky to rate. This list includes the reserves and we will update it with trainer form and going etc when the final declarations are made. The main purpose of this exercise is to determine whether you can rate a horse that has never run over hurdles before by his Flat or NH times. we have thrown Jerrari at the bottom of the middle group as he has no form to go on but rates from a decent yard.

[Mike]

Hi
I have been asked how the bookies make there markets up in Maiden races with little or no form to go on and in truth I don’t know…lol. But this is why we tend to dabble in said markets and attempt to form our own as they can offer the biggest opportunities if you can spot something they miss.
I will give a second estimated market which anyone can do by using the Racing Post ratings which are readily available as soon a the initial declarations are made.
In tomorrows race I would suggest that judging by there ratings the following group would head there tissue odds.
Banana Three TS 102 RPR 125 = 227
Balko D’ange TS 102 RPR 117 = 219
Rapparee Champ TS 99 RPR 118 = 217
Kazakh d’Arthel TS 90 RPR 109 = 199
Herbies Rover TS 85 RPR 108 = 193
Yarraman Makarrata TS 80 RPR 103 = 186
Shing Shilla TS 83 RPR 103 = 186
The Mullins horse Korea could well be in there as it was well fancied first time up and the unraced Jerrari plus flat raced converts Come On The Lads and Mr Percy are also candidates for the top half of the market.
I would also point out that for those starting out there is an article Forming Tissue Odds that may be of some assistance.

[Mike]

Hi
Without giving the whole game away the next step with our little trial run would be see which horses have already proven there quality by being profitable. Mr Percy, Rapparee Champ and Korea head that table.
The next obvious step is Trainer form and Balko D’age, Kazakh d’Arthel, Come On The Lads, Shing Shilla, Herbies Rover and Jarrari are in that list. The obvious two to add but separately are Korea and Mr Percy who also appear in our previous list.
Mr Percy ++
Korea ++
Rappari Champ +
———-
Balko D’ange +
Kazakh d’Artel +
Come On The Lads +
Shing Shilla +
Herbies Rover +
This will now impact the tissue odds and for the Racing Post list you would have to make your own adjustments but I would now suggest the following update.
Banana Three TS 102 RPR 125 = 227
Balko D’ange TS 102 RPR 117 = 219 +
Kazakh d’Arthel TS 90 RPR 109 = 199 +
Korea (Joint TS+RPR rating=169) ++
Mr Percy (unrated) ++
Herbies Rover TS 85 RPR 108 = 193 +
Shing Shilla TS 83 RPR 103 = 186 +
Come On The Lads +
Rapparee Champ TS 99 RPR 118 = 217 +
Yarraman Makarrata TS 80 RPR 103 = 186
This gives us our estimated top ten using the Racing post ratings which are available to everyone so you should be able to rate your own races in future.
How you work out or award points/value to the Trainer form and profitability of a horse is down to each persons individual opinion but thats the name of the game.

[Mike]

Hi
In a couple of hours it will be crunch time for the market predictions and tomorrow will be the day of reckoning result wise so here goes with our top ten.
Korea
Mr Percy
Shing Shilla
Come On The Lads
Kazakh d’Arthel
Banana Three
———-
Rapparee Champ
Herbies Rover
Garrick Painter
Yarraman Makarratta
———-
Balko D’age
Jerrari ??
———-
Desert Haven
The Reel Martello
To The Wire
Grey Fable
———-
Hangry
Gimme A Buzz
Rorkes Drift
Indy Rules
Notimelikedpresent
There are several flies in the ointment in this race notably Balko D’ange whose runs have been on Heavy ground and is difficult to assess (unless the heavens open up before the race). Jarrari as mentioned has not run a race yet and could be anything but this is where tomorrows post including market movers comes in. Finally there is Come On The Lads who has yes to step over an obstacle but this horse is of particular interest due to the ratings we are working on.

[Mike]

Hi
The predicted markets worked out really well with the notable exception of Come On The Lads currently priced up at 66-1 and Shing Shilla at 80-1. Therefore we will be looking to back both of those as each way extra’s or without the favourites when all the markets are published.
We will be looking to check for market movers overnight and will update the thread tomorrow morning. Here are tonight’s opening prices.
Mr Percy 1-1
Korea 7-2
Kazakh d’Arthel 4-4
Banana Three 11-2
Rapparee Champ 15-2
Balko D’ange 14-1
Yarraman Makarrata 20-1
Herbies Rover 25-1
Jerrari 25-1
Grey Fable 33-1
40-1 bar

[Mike]

Hi
Well that went down like pork chop at a bar mitzvah with me. 🙁 Come On The Lads rider pulled up after two fences when the saddle slipped on the horse and Shin Shilla’s jockey was not even in the saddle when the starter let them go. What possessed the jockey to then remount the horse and try and make the thirty lengths he lost I will never know. But that is racing for you I have just spent two days doing all this work for nothing. 🙁
However there is a race tomorrow and Suds has decide to give it go and will post something a little bit later.

[Author]

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