QUALITY RACING 2026

[Mike]

Hi Rob
That’s the second horse we have agreed on for Cheltenham now (Ante Post Wagers ) it must be something in the water lets hope we have not jinxed either of them…lol. I am also working my way through the other handicaps, can lightning strike three times. ?

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

As my grandfather used to say, it is either a case of great minds think alike, or fools rarely differ – hopefully it is a case of the former!!

I have now completed my initial analysis of the four handicaps at Cheltenham on Tuesday, with mixed results.

The Ultima Handicap Chase has been put on the “too difficult” pile for now, as I have whittled the entries down to an unmanageable shortlist of 14, all of which have reasonable claims and none of them really stand out based on the odds offered by my bookmakers.

I have also scrapped any thoughts for now of being able to find the winner of the National Hunt Chase, which is a shame as it provided me with my best bet of the festival in the guise of my old friend HAITI COULEURS.

However, the Festival Plate which is to be run for the first time on the Tuesday having been a staple of Thursday’s card for many years does offer an interesting opportunity.

I know that we both have already placed a bet on DONNACHA @ 20/1, who has now shortened to a general 14/1, but he currently needs 18 runners to come out to get a run, so we may end up just getting our money back.

Leaving him aside, I ended up with a shortlist of just 4 entries, namely:

BOOMBAWN – very inconsistent and finished 34 lengths behind DONNACHA on penultimate start at Cheltenham
BLOW YOUR WAD – tends to be campaigned at right handed tracks and twice unplaced at Cheltenham
VINCENZO – 4 wins and 3 seconds from 7 Chase start and has twice finished second in similar events at Cheltenham this season
THE ENABLER – has just one stand out effort from four Chase runs in Ireland and has suffered heavy defeats in last 2 races

VINCEZO appears to be the best option, especially as William Hill currently have him at 12/1, as opposed to the 9/1 which is on offer elsewhere.

I have therefore backed him for 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) NRNB with William Hill and have used my daily odds boost to secure 13.08/1.

Betting bank now 74.82 pts (with 20.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

I will now start analysing Wednesday’s handicaps in detail.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Before I get on to documenting my further thoughts in respect of the festival handicaps at Cheltenham, I just wanted to say that I believe the connections of CONSITITUTION HILL have made the right decision to forego further attempts over hurdles in favour of a flat race campaign.

I have added the gelding to my tracker as I hope he will generate some interesting betting opportunities over the next few weeks and months.

My analysis of the handicaps scheduled for the Wednesday of the festival have produced a couple of interesting bets, starting with the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle.

My initial analysis produced a shortlist of 9 possibles from the 85 current entries, at which stage I was less than confident of being able to find anything worth an investment at this stage.

However, on further investigation I believe that JINKO BLUE overs some value, albeit his selection needs a bit of explaining.

This 7yo gelding was last seen on New Year’s Day when finishing runner up in a moderate renewal of the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle on the new course at Cheltenham. He was awarded a career best hurdles RPR of 144 for that effort, which does not suggest that he is particularly well treated off an OR of 144 for this event.

That said, this will be only his seventh run over hurdles and he has also achieved an RPR of 154 over fences, which suggests that he has plenty of scope to improve over the smaller obstacle.

In addition, his trainer Nicky Henderson has a good record in this race during the past decade, with 2 wins, 2 runners up and 2 fourth place finishes on his CV.

Finally, the 20/1 on offer with Bet 365 appears to offer some value, as he is generally quoted at 16/1 and as low as 14/1 with a couple of major firms.

0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365 @ 20/1.

The next handicap is the Cross Country Chase, which has failed to ignite my interest since my initial selection ANNUAL INVICTUS has not been entered, so I shall look forward to the return of my 2 pts stake at some stage.

The final handicap on Wednesday is the Grand Annual Handicap Chase, which is not a race that I usually get involved with as in my mind it is as slippery as a barrel of eels.

However, I have a candidate this year that I mentioned back in January as an interesting left field contender should he be entered for this specific race.

The general consensus of opinion is that punters should concentrate on young, unexposed runners in most chases, especially over shorter distances, however veteran chasers have a reasonable record in this race.

Step forward, golden oldie EDWARDSTONE, who has now reached the ripe old age of 12, who in his prime won the Grade 1, Arkle Trophy over the same course and distance.

I fully appreciate that his form is waining and his best efforts this year have been achieved over longer distances, but the helter skelter early pace that is normal in this race should suit his hold up style of racing and enable him to run past tired opponents towards the finish.

Perhaps I am letting my heart rule my head with this one, but with William Hill offering odds of 33/1 and allowing me to use my daily odds boost to secure 36.75/1, he has to be worth a small wager.

0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) with William Hill at 36.75/1.

Betting bank now 72.82 pts (with 22.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have now completed my analysis of the 3 handicaps for Thursday, with mixed results.

The Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase appears to be a total minefield, as plenty of the entries have alternative engagements, so it is anyone’s guess what the final field will look like.

I therefore intend to pass on this race for now, but have added one of the entries to my tracker, namely last year’s runner up ANYWAY who ran a fine race at an SP of 125/1.

If the ground is no worse than good to soft, he may be worth an each way bet, but I will be looking for more than 4 places on the day.

The other handicap chase is the Kim Muir for amateur riders, which is often the weakest event throughout the 4 day festival. It is rare that I have a bet in this race, but if I do it tends to be on a runner that is ridden by one of the top Irish amateurs, so much will depend on who is riding which horse.

That leaves the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, for which I have a shortlist of just 4 entries, of which one has really taken my eye.

RED DIRT ROAD has one outstanding piece of form in the context of this race when winning a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Sandown by 8 lengths back in February 2025. He was awarded a career best RPR of 145 for that effort, but has since been pulled up twice, prior to finishing fourth (RPR 128) in a qualifier for this race at Haydock on his latest start.

He is due to run off an OR of just 134 in this event, which makes him very well handicapped in comparison to his standout RPR, which suggests that he is likely to prove very competitive if returning to his best form and is worth an each way investment at general odds of 33/1.

0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 33/1 with William Hill.

Betting bank now 71.82 pts (with 23.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The final two festival handicaps take place on Friday and are both run over hurdles.

Over the past decade the County Hurdle has become a benefit for either Willie Mullins (5 wins) or Dan Skelton (4 wins), which suggests that their entries need to be looked at very carefully.

With Paul Townend having steered home 4 of Willie Mullins’ winners, with the pair also finishing runner up to the stable’s other winner in the race during this period, it may be worth waiting to see who the stable’s jockey rides, albeit they do tend to get heavily backed once the partnership is known.

My selection at this stage is not going to set many pulses racing, as it is more of an insurance bet than an expectation that the gelding will run in the race.

I have already invested 2 pts (1 pt ew) on ANZADAM for the Champion Hurdle and whilst his recent form has been bitterly disappointing having finished fourth in a couple of Grade 1 hurdles at Leopardstown, I still think that he is capable of being competitive in the Champion Hurdle, if Willie Mullins can find the key to unlock his potential.

However, if he bypasses the main event on Tuesday in favour of an attempt to carry top weight in the County Hurdle, then I want to be on him now, as he is probably the best horse in the race and may well end up being ridden by Paul Townend.

The horse’s main issue this season has been his inability to settle, so perhaps being buried amongst a big field in a race where the early pace tends to be strong will help him settle, if so he could easily outclass the opposition.

0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 12/1 with William Hill.

The final race of the festival is the Class 2, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle, which tends to be won by a young, unexposed runner who is destined for better things, often over fences.

The list of the last 5 winners is very impressive:

2021 – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS – multiple Grade 1 winner over fences, including 2 Cheltenham Gold Cups
2022 – BANBRIDGE – 3 Grade 1 wins over fences, including a King George VI Chase
2023 – IROKO – fourth in last year’s Grand National and favourite for the race this time around
2024 – BETTER DAYS AHEAD – Grade 2 winning chaser
2025 – WODHOOH – Grade 2 winning hurdler, who is likely to win the Mare’s Hurdle if LOSSIEMOUTH runs in the Champion Hurdle

Using a few basic trends, I have whittled the 81 current entries down to a shortlist of 3, after which it is ‘crystal ball’ time trying to envisage their career path over the next few years.

In the end, I have selected KEL HISTORIE who is owned by J P Mc Manus and trained by Willie Mullins, who’s only victory over hurdles from 5 attempts was achieved on his hurdling debut at Cork, but finished runner up in a Grade 2 novice hurdle next time out. Since then he has finished unplaced in three Graded hurdles, but recorded his career best RPR of 137 last time out on heavy ground which was probably not ideal for him.

He is due to race off an OR of 137 on his handicap debut, which seems fair in the context of this race and will hopefully improve if the ground is not too testing.

0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 14/1 with Bet 365.

Betting bank now 69.82 pts (with 25.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Not sure how many readers follow trends when analysing races, but i generally tend to use a few of my own to whittle down large fields in an attempt to generate a more manageable shortlist, rather than following trends that identify specific selections.

However, I was notified this week of one specific trend covering races over fences at the Cheltenham Festival which really has taken my interest.

I do not feel that I can share full details of the trend on this thread, as that would be unfair to the person to undertook the analysis and shared the result to subscribers, however it is probably reasonable for me to say that it relates to horses running over fences, who raced last time out over hurdles.

Under certain circumstances these runners are worth backing both to win and each way, especially when additional places are on offer.

This trend doesn’t generate many opportunities, but I have identified 3 potential entries that may be worth following, if the turn up at the festival, namely.

AMERICAN MIKE – has entries in the Ultima, Plate and Kim Muir handicap chases
JAZZY MATTY – entered in the Grand Annual, having won the race last year after racing over hurdles on his previous start
ANYWAY – already mentioned on this thread in relation to the Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase

I am not inclined to back any of the qualifiers yet, but will consider them ion the day of the race when I can hopefully secure some additional places for my each way investments.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one week until the start of the Cheltenham Festival and there is already a buzz of anticipation in the town.

I have a number of thoughts that I wish to share, so will start with a quick review of the 3 graded races that were run over last weekend.

MONTEMARES – won the Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso by 6 1/2 lengths, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 135. That figure is towards the lower end of list of RPRs recorded by winners during the past decade and it is not easy to get a grip on what this gelding actually achieved with all of his 3 market rivals having been pulled up. For now I have taken the stance that he should be opposed next time out, unless he appears in a weak event.

Supporters of NO DRAMA THIS END in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle will no doubt feel that MONTEMARES victory boosts the form of the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, but I am again lukewarm warm on the Paul Nicholls trained runner who is vying for favouritism in that race.

JACOBS LADDER – was odds on to win what appeared to be a weak renewal of the Grade 3, Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan and duly obliged his supporters finishing 1 1/4 lengths ahead of his nearest rival. He was given an RPR of 144 for this victory, but had won a competitive handicap at the DRF last time out for which he was awarded his career best RPR of 152, so he clearly didn’t have much to beat on Saturday. He has plenty of scope for further improvement, but he is not one that I would be entrusting with my money at this stage until he proves that he can run to his OR of 151.

JAMES DU BERLAIS – defied a significant drift in the market to win the Grade 2, Websters Cup Chase at Navan even though he ended up the outsider of the 4 runner field at an SP of 11/1. His winning RPR of 153, was fully 6 lbs below his career best figure and with just 3 wins from 20 starts over fences, I shall not be clamouring to support him next time.

I also wanted to mention a couple of horses that have recently appeared on this thread.

JORDANS – was previously highlighted as a well handicapped horse after which he was pulled up in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park, on heavy ground, prior to running in a Listed handicap chase over 2m 5 1/2f at Fairyhouse yesterday. He could only finish eleventh of the 16 starters, but was only beaten 15 lengths, having been outpaced at the finish. Perhaps it is now possible to get a feel for his prime conditions, which I believe are something close to a handicap chase over at least 3 miles on ground ranging from good through to yeilding to soft. I did not back him yesterday, but will keep him in my tracker until he has a chance to prove himself under ideal conditions, as I suspect he may be dropped a couple more lbs for his latest defeat, which would make him dangerously well treated.

VINCENZO – blotted his copybook with a below par effort in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday, finishing over 23 lengths behind the winner in fifth place. Based on RPRs he performed 18 lbs below his previous best and a holder of a NRNB each way ticket for him in the Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham next Tuesday, I am hoping that he is scratched from the race, as I doubt he can bounce back to form in such a short period of time – at least then I will get my money back.

MARINE NATIONAL – has today been scratched for the Champion Chase, which again highlights the pitfalls of antepost betting without NRNB. With a week to go before the Cheltenham Festival, I was quietly confident of at least securing the place return on my 1 pt ew double on OLD STAR PARK for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and MARINE NATIONALE in the Champion Chase, but now I have just lost my 2 pt stake, without either horse running.

However, all may not be lost, as MAJBOROUGH is now generally odds on for the Champion Chase, which may provide me with the opportunity to lay him to win at a shade of odds against on the day to recoup my losses. ,

I still feel that he is a moderate jumper of fences and only ALTIOR has scored during the past decade from 8 runners who started odds on for the race, with many of the losers making jumping mistakes – hopefully MAJBOROUGH will keep up this trend!!

All the best,

Rob

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Not a great day for my antepost portfolio in the races next Tuesday, as most of my selections have been scratched, as follows:

2.40 MODE AVION – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) – 1.0 pt returned
4.20 DONNACHA – 1.0 pts each way (NRNB) – 2.0 pts returned
4.20 VINCENZO – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB – 1.0 pts returned)

OK, I know that I wanted VINCENZO to be pulled out, but I am a bit miffed that the others were not confirmed as entries, as I had spent plenty of time finding them and I thought they both had fair claims of producing a return, albeit at least I get my money returned.

That leaves me with just an antepost interest in the Champion Hurdle:

ANZADAM – 1.0 pts each way @ 33/1 (currently best priced at 20/1)
LOSSIEMOUTH – 1.0 pts each way (NRNB @ 4/1) (currently best priced @ 7/2)

Hopefully most of my selections for the rest of the festival will get a chance to run.

Betting bank now 73.82 pts (with19.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

At least I have no more casualties from my dwindling antepost portfolio after the latest entry stage for the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, as both of my selections remain in contention for a run.

2.40 JINGKO BLEU – 0.5pts each way (NRNB) @ 20/1 – currently best priced at 16/1, but is more generally a 14/1 shot

4.40 EDWARDSTONE – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 33/1 – currently on offer at odds varying from 20/1 to 40/1.

It is also interesting to note that recent activity on the exchanges suggests that LOSSIEMOUTH is likely to finally get a chance of running in the Champion Hurdle, rather than going for a third successive victory in the Mares’ Hurdle.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Any reader who has logged on to William Hill today will no doubt be tempted by their Epic Boost offering evens for any favourite to win on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival.

The offer states that the current odds for this bet without the boost is 1/16, which implies that they are allowing all customers the opportunity to bet a maximum of £10 at evens with a 94.1% chance of success.

This in turn suggest that the theoretical chance of the bet failing is just 5.9%.

At first glance this appears to represent incredible value and no doubt many punters will take advantage of the offer.

However, using the best odds currently on offer from a selection of the major bookmakers on each of the favourites, which may of course change significantly between now and the start of each of the 7 races at Cheltenham on Tuesday gives a significantly different result when calculating the odds for the bet failing is around 25%, excluding overrounds.

This suggests that the true odds for any one of the favourites winning on Tuesday to be around the 75% mark, which is a 1/3 shot.

In conclusion, based on my calculations, the offer does represent value, as punters can secure even money on a 1/3 shot, but it is nowhere near as generous as suggested in the advertisement.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The confirmed entries for the third day of the Cheltenham Festival have not impacted on my antepost bets, leaving the following investments in tact:

2.40 LOSSIEMOUTH – 2.0 pts win (NRNB) @ Evens – current best odds range from 8/11 to 5/4

3.20 BOB OLINGER – 1.0 pts each way @ 14/1 – current best odds 7/1, but more generally 6/1

4.40 RED DIRT ROAD – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 33/1 – remains generally a 33/1 shot

There are also a couple of each way doubles on OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW (NRNB) and FACT TO FILE coupled with DINOBLUE, the fate of which will not be known until tomorrow.

However, there was one notable absentee in ANYWAY, who I had previously highlighted as a potential selection in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Three posts in one day is probably a record, especially as this one contains details of a bet for tomorrow, which I appreciate has been rather a rarity over the past few weeks!!

Back in January, I was less than complimentary when detailing my thoughts on the victory of OOH BETTY at Ascot, but that was in the context of her having won probably the weakest Grade 2 hurdle race for mares for some time.

However, she now reappears in the Class 2, Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, which is far more appropriate in relation to her level of ability.

She could only finish eleventh in the race last year, when sent off at 8/1, but didn’t actually run too badly as she was only beaten 9 3/4 lengths, despite not being able to take up her customary prominent position.

Hopefully, she can get closer to the early pace this time, as she has plenty of ticks in the right boxes, having recorded 5 of her 6 hurdle victories when racing right handed, including over course and distance on her only other appearance at Sandown.

She will almost certainly need a career best effort to win, but looks capable of providing sort of return on the following investments with Bet 365

0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) @ 22/1
1.0 pt for a top 10 finish @ 23/20

Betting bank now 71.82 pts (including 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Yesterday ended up a busy day for my family, culminating in a rare visit to the cinema to watch the Peaky Blinders film, prior to it being available on Netflix – well worth watching, provided the back story is known by the viewer.

Today is no less busy as we have a classical music concert to attend this afternoon, followed by a meal out with some old friends, who religiously visit Cheltenham for the Festival.

Hence a quick update on yesterday’s developments.

My first daily bet for a fortnight, OOH BETTY ended up a non runner, due to the deteriorating ground, so just got my money back.

The announcement of the final entries for the Friday of the festival provided a pleasant surprise in respect of my antepost portfolio, as FACT TO FILE was not supplemented for the Gold Cup, so he will be carrying my money in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday, with DINOBLUE, who remains favourite for the Mares’ Chase on Friday.

DINOBLUE also remains on course to run for me in another each way (NRNB) double with OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle on Thursday.

Moving on to my other antepost selections for Friday, as expected ANZADAM who I backed each way (NRNB) for the County Hurdle, just in case he didn’t run in the Champion Hurdle, was scratched, so money back, which I have reinvested as follows:

2.00 KARBAU – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365, who have boosted his odds to 9/1 (generally 8/1 elsewhere).

My other two antepost selections remain live and there odds have pleasingly tightened up:

4.00 HAITI COULEURS – 1 pt each way (NRNB) @ 9.78/1 (current best odds 8/1, but generally 6/1)

5.20 KEL HISTOIRE – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 14/1 (generally 6/1 favourite)

On balance, my antepost portfolio is currently looking fairly healthy, but that is the easy part of the equation, as my selection now needs to be to deliver a positive return.

I have yet to review the final declarations for Tuesday, which were released at 10.00 am this morning, but that is not a major problem at this stage as I want to see the special offers from my bookmakers before parting with further funds.

Betting bank now 73.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have found a couple of selections for Tuesday, which are unlikely to be subject to any special offers from my bookmakers.

1.20 SOBER GLORY – has barely put a foot run during his short career, having won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles, having previously been successful in his sole start in a PTP and in all 3 runs in NH flat races. He has solid claims based on both his best RPR of 155 (4 lbs below top rating) and TS of 151 (best in race) and the old course should suit his prominent running style, yet he is available at 14/1, which in my opinion underestimates his chance of a podium finish.

0.5 pts win @ 14/1 and 1.5 pts for a top 6 finish @ 20/23 (just in case he gets run down by the finishers on the long run in) with Bet 365.

2.40 PORQUOI PAS PAPA – has just one victory from 5 hurdle starts, but has finished runner up on each other occasions. He recorded a career best RPR of 121 last time, when beaten 2 1/4 lengths by the reopposing MANLAGA, but is now 6 lbs better off with that rival, yet is available at 20/1, whereas the victor is a 7/1 shot. He is another prominent racer and could be open to further improvement on his handicap debut for a trainer, Paul Nicholls, who has won this race on 3 occasions in the past.

0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places. plus 1 pt for a top 10 finish @ 13/10 with Bet 365.

I also have a couple of antepost investments running in the Champion Hurdle (4.00), namely ANZADAM and LOSSIEMOUTH.

Bet bank now 69.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
The moment of truth arrives…lol. best of luck and thanks for all the input especially with Kel Histoire who is beginning to look like great shout.
We have both gone with Paul Nicholls runners in the 2.40 today and I know Harry Cobden has plumped for Porquoi Pas Papa having won comfortably on Bibe Mus four days ago but I believe with Sam Twiston Davies on board I still have a squeak.
The concern was the timing of his last run being so close to this race but I believe he needed the mark to get off the right weight to run. So it may prove to be a stroke of genius or a predictable disaster waiting to happen.
Either way best of luck as the kit kat is awaiting the winner especially as Suds has gone also gone with Bibe Mus with Madness d’Elle as the option. Intersting that nobody went for the fancied runners. ?

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