QUALITY RACING 2026

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The winner of the Grade 3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse is usually worth following and I suspect that OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW will maintain that record this year.

Although her winning RPR of 137 is a little lower than I would have expected, it still suggests that she is improving quickly and is likely to rank amongst the best mares over hurdles from this year’s intake.

Let’s not forget that she beat last year’s Champion Bumper winner BAMBINO FEVER by 1/2 lengths when they were both making their debut over obstacles and her latest RPR is 6lbs superior to that recorded by the runner up next time out, albeit they both won easily, which suggests that they are likely to improve further with experience.

They are both likely to run in the mare’s novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, but whilst BAMBINO FEVER is currently priced up at 6/4 (NRNB) favourite, OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW is available at 11/4 in the same market with Bet 365.

As I am also conscious that my previous ante post each way double with DINOBLUE for the Mares Chase and FACT TO FILE for the Ryanair Chase is doomed to failure due to the likely change of plan for the latter, I have placed a 1 pt each way double with Bet 365, as follows:

OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW @ 11/4 and DINOBLUE @ 13/8, both 1/5 odds for 3 places, which pays 8.84/1.

I have also been busy placing a couple of NRNB each way singles with Bet 365 on horses that I have previously noted on this thread as being potentially well handicapped, namely:

DONNACHA @ 20/1 (1/5 odds 4 places) for the Festival Plate Handicap Chase

ANNUAL INVICTUS @ 33/1 (1/5 odds for 4 places) for the Cross Country Handicap Chase

Readers will need to go back to my earlier postings for the rationale for each bet.

Betting Bank now 82.82 pts (with 12.0 pts of ante post wagers booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Strangely I had just started working on the stats for the Festival Plate and Donnacha ticks all the boxes, especially now that I can see him being rated in the future around the 139 mark. I will put a direct link to your last post into the Ante Post Wagers (if thats ok). ?

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

More than happy for you to link all my antepost bets on the new thread.

My understanding around DONNACHA is that he has already been reassessed by the BHA with his OR having been raised 4 lbs to 136, which appears lenient bearing in mind he beat JAGWAR on Cheltenham Trials day.

Unless one or more of the beaten horses in that race produces a significantly better performance between now and the entry date for the Plate, DONNACHA should run off 136 in the race.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Since the defeat of LOSSIEMOUTH on Sunday, I have been trying to second guess her target race at the Cheltenham Festival, which is probably a pointless endeavour in light of her connections past antics for the mare whereby she has appeared to be a likely candidate for the Champion Hurdle, prior to eventually being declared for the Mares’ Hurdle.

Despite the lack of a standout runner in this year’s Champion Hurdle, I suspect that she will again be tasked with winning the Mares’ Hurdle for the third consecutive year.

On the basis that she has justified odds of 8/13 and 4/6 in the last two renewals of the Mares’s event, her current odds of evens (NRNB) appear generous, especially as I have been able to use my daily odds boost with William Hill, which has increased the odds to 1.07/1.

Obviously, not a particularly exciting antepost bet, but 2pts to win at 1.07/1 is worth taking compared to her previous SPs.

Betting bank now 80.82 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

If racing goes ahead at Newbury tomorrow, the underfoot conditions are going to be attritional, which suggests that to find a winner we may need to identify a runner who has webbed feet and breathes through gills!!

Having reviewed the runners for the William Hill Hurdle, there are very few that are proven on heavy ground.

One runner who does appear equipped for the task in hand is MILLDAM, who is more exposed than the usual winner of this race, but boasts 4 wins from 5 attempts on heavy ground and has recorded his career best RPR of 131 on such a. surface.

He has yet to be placed in three starts this season, but looked to be coming to his best when fifth at Windsor last time out, for which he was awarded his best RPR away from heavy ground of 127.

He has to race off an OR of 127 in this race, which suggests that he is not particularly well treated, however his trainer Jamie Snowdon has booked Isobel Ryder who is a useful conditional jockey who can claim 5 lbs and has a good record for the stable.

I have therefore invested 0.5 pts win @ 14/1 and 1.5 pts top 8 finish @ 5/6 with Bet 365.

Betting bank now 78.82 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

Good luck everyone.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have today attempted to square the LOSSIEMOUTH conundrum by placing a 1pt each way NRNB single (1/5 odds for 3 places) for the Champion Hurdle with William Hill and used my daily odds boost to secure 4.31/1 as opposed to the 4/1 quoted.

Every little helps.

Betting bank now 76.83 pts (with 16.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

No luck on Saturday with MILLDAM, who was chosen for his ability to handle bad ground, yet continued my unerring knack of backing runners who end up being pulled up.

I just hope that my poor current form does not spill over to my antepost bets, otherwise it will result in carnage for this thread!!

The results of the Grade 2 races held at Newbury and Warwick on Saturday have certainly provided me with some food for thought, as follows.

STEEL ALLY – maintained his unbeaten record over fences in the Kinmaker Novice Chase at Warwick and is certainly proving to be a better chaser than he was over the smaller obstacles. He was awarded a career best RPR of 158 for his comfortable victory over his two rivals, which suggests that whilst he fully deserves his entry in the Arkle, he will probably need to find further significant improvement to achieve better than a minor placing.

HAITI COULEURS – faced only 3 rivals in the Denman Chase at Newbury, but the style of his comfortable 7 length victory over the consistent L’HOMME PRESSE suggests that he retains further scope for improvement. Although he was handed a career best RPR of 168 for this win, I believe that there are strong grounds for believing that this figure underestimates his performance, as I am not convinced that the runner up recorded his worst performance for this season. Perhaps a figure of 170 – 172 would be more appropriate for this victory, which would place HAITI COULEURS within touching distance of the best RPR for a staying chaser this season of 177.

LULAMBA – was the clear cut winner of the Game Spirit Chase on his first outing in open company, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 167. There is little doubt that he deserves to be favourite for the Arkle, especially as there are question marks over his main market rivals KOPEK DES BORDES (lack of experiences), KARGESE (one win from three attempts over fences) and ROMEO COOLIO (race distance).

KINGSTON QUEEN – did well to scramble home in the Grade 2 Mares Novice Hurdle, despite the fact that the race turned into a sprint due to the slowish early pace. However, her RPR of 127 was the lowest figure awarded to the winner of this race during the past decade and suggests that she may struggle if attempting to follow up in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham.

From an antepost betting perspective I believe that the performance of HAITI COULEURS warrants a small investment for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, for the following reasons:

He is proven at the track with wins over fences on both the old and new courses.

He is guaranteed to stay the trip, having won on each of the 3 occasions he has raced over further than 3m 2f.

He will be ridden by Sean Bowen, who has developed an excellent rapport with this improving stayer.

Thiis year’s Gold Cup may not prove to be a particularly strong renewal, as a number of his rivals at the head of the market have questions to answer:

FACT TO FILE – needs to be supplemented, yet to race over distance and is not the most consistent of chasers
JANGO BAIE – not seen since Boxing Day and unproven at distance
THE JUKEBOX MAN – not seen since Boxing Day, only 4 starts over fences and may prefer racing on flat tracks
GAELIC WARRIOR – difficult to settle and unlikely to run if FACT TO FILE is supplemented
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS – now 10yo and not in great form

I have therefore placed a 1 pt NRNB each way single (1/5 odds for 3 places) on HAITI COULEURS with William Hill using my daily odds boost which has increased the price from 9/1 to 9.78/1.

Betting Bank now 74.82 pts (with 18.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just before I provide thoughts regarding the two Graded races at Navan on Sunday, I just wanted to mention the first race at Naas on the previous day.

At first sight it appears to be just an innocuous 4yo hurdle, which is generally contested by runners who have yet to show enough ability to run in Graded events. However, previous runners in the race have provided the winner of 4 of the last 7 winners of the Fred Winter 4yo Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, plus a number of placed horses at reasonable prices.

Whilst I am not tempted to put forward any suggested selections based on this year’s result at this stage, as much will depend on the handicap ratings which will be allocated by the BHA for runners in the Fred Winter, I have added all 5 contestants at Naas to my tracker and I will certainly be considering them at the festival once the weights have been published.

Moving on to Sunday’s Grade 2 action:

STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT – continued his fine season by winning the Boyne Hurdle which resulted in him being awarded a career best RPR of 153. He seems fairly exposed after 14 starts over hurdles, which suggests that this is probably his level and he will be of interest in future when he encounters bad ground.

OSCARS BROTHER – was an impressive 6 lengths winner of the Ten Up Novices’ Chase, bringing his record to 3 wins from 5 attempts over fences. This was his second victory at Grade 2 level and a career best RPR of 157 suggests that he is capable of further improvement in the future, albeit he may not proved good enough to win the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novice Chase at Cheltenham , if the main protagonists turn up.

Today is likely to be a busy day, as scratchings for 9 races at Cheltenham will be published shortly, together with the weights for the Grand National.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing to report from a betting perspective since my last post, but here are my thoughts on Saturday’s Graded race winners in the U.K. and Ireland.

ALEXEI – won the Grade 2, Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton despite hating the heavy ground. He was awarded an RPR of 147, for his first victory at Graded level, which is 6lbs lower than his best handicap form, which suggests that we have learnt nothing new about this this outsider for the Champion Hurdle. His entry for the Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham has generated plenty of column inches and a few tipsters have put him forward as a surprise package for the race, but I struggle to understand the rationale behind this support, as he appears to have a mountain to climb based on his career best RPR of 153, especially at his current odds of 20/1.

THE JUKEBOX KID – was sent off odds on for a weak 3 runner renewal of the Grade 2, Reynoldstown Novice Chase at Ascot and had little difficulty making all to win by 5 1/2 lengths. The fact that he was awarded the same RPR of 144 as he achieved in a Class 3 Handicap Chase on his latest start, suggests that he may be capable of better when encountering tougher opposition, but for now I am inclined to think that he is probably just a progressive handicapper, for whom his chances of further glory in the near future will depend on how he is reassessed for this bloodless victory.

LORD ROUGE – ground out a 1/2 lengths victory in the Grade 3 novice hurdle at Gowran Park, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 133. He holds no Grade 1 entries at the Cheltenham Festival and has already suffered a heavy defeat at the top level in Ireland, which suggests that he is not ranked highly within Gordon Elliott’s novice hurdle team, so perhaps his future will be as a staying chaser when the mud is flying.

LUD’OR – recorded a career best RPR of 146 for his comfortable 4 lengths victory in the Grade 2, Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock, however the 5 strong field was made up of handicappers, which suggests that this was a very weak renewal and the fact that this was his eleventh start over obstacles indicates that he is likely to struggle in stronger graded events in the future.

DALSTON LAD – continued his progression over hurdles with a comfortable victory in the Grade 2, Albert Bartlett Prestige Novice Hurdle at Haydock. His winning RPR of 136 was a career best effort, but it still leaves him well short of the level required to win an average Grade 1 novice event, albeit he may be of interest in the Grade 1 novice staying hurdle at Aintree, which tends to be a fairly moderate affair.

JONBON – put in a gutsy performance to register his twelfth Grade 1 success in the Ascot Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs, for which he was awarded an RPR of 168. He is now 10 years old and the fact that he only had 1.5 lengths to spare over the waining 11yo PIC
D’ORHY suggests that he is unlikely to find any further improvement, especially at Cheltenham where he has a very moderate record. What amazes me is the fact that he has won so many grade 1 races, yet his best RPR is just 173, which suggests that he is nothing special when compared with the top chasers of the past couple of decades, although I concede that he is a very effective “playground bully” when facing moderate opposition, but typical of his ilk he invariably is found wanting when facing stronger opposition. His odds for the Ryanair have shortened, but he has now endured 2 hard races in a row and I suspect that he will struggle especially if FACT TO FILE and/or GAELIC WARRIOR turn up.

IMPAIRE ET PASSE – produced an impressive performance on his belated seasonal debut to win the Grade 2, Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, for which he was awarded a joint career best chasing RPR of 162. Although the bare figure suggests this was an average renewal of this race, he deserves credit for costly beating a couple of race fit opponents who were well treated at the weights. Having twice won Grade 1 novice chases last year, there is every chance that he will find sufficient improvement to add further Grade 1 victories in the not too distant future. Although he is entered for the Ryanair Chase, that may come too soon for him to recover, but he is unbeaten in 2 attempts in Grade 1 races at Aintree, so perhaps he will skip Cheltenham in favour of the Grand National meeting.

Before I sign off for the day, it is worth noting that IMPAIRE ET PASSE was involved in a recent workout at Punchestown where a group of 4 Willie Mullins trained runners jumped fences at racing speed for 2 miles. Although the runners did not run a finish, the horse that impressed his jockey and trainer most and came home in front was KOPEK DES BORDES, who despite his lack of experience over fences could still provide a stern test for LULAMBA in the Arkle Chase.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Am I the only racing fan who is totally ambivalent regarding whether CONSTITUTION HILL makes his flat debut on the synthetic surface at Southwell on Friday evening?

The amount of press coverage since it was announced by connections of the horse that the plan was run him in a novice event over 12 furlongs at the track has in my opinion been excessive and is likely to intensify still further if he is amongst the final declarations.

In reality, his performance in the race will tell us very little!!

If he wins convincingly, it will just confirm that he is fit and retains his ability to gallop, but that is not his Achilles heal, as his problem over his last 4 races is his lack of concentration when jumping hurdles at racing pace.

In fact, the lack of hurdles and the need to run around 1.25 seconds quicker per furlong to win this flat race could prove detrimental to his future hurdling career, as he may become even more complacent when tackling obstacles.

It is also worth noting that by the age of 9 horses tend to start slowing down and therefore need to step up in trip to remain competitive, albeit they don’t gain acquire additional stamina as compensation, so are only capable of remaining competitive within their inherited stamina comfort zone.

If his connections decide to change tack and reinvent him as a middle to long distance flat horse, then perhaps it his race will provide the ideal first stepping stone, but the fact that he is already 9 years old must be a major negative, as it is very rare for runners of that age to win Group races on the flat.

Perhaps his connections, will instead aim to qualify him for major handicaps, but again his age will be against him, plus he will need to learn how to adapt to running faster than ever before in flat handicaps that are often highly competitive, both in terms of quality and quantity of runners. Let’s not forget that he has never faced more than 8 rivals during the whole of his hurdling career and few of those were capable of winning providing he stayed on his feet.

If he fails to perform as hoped by his connections, then what next?

Only time will tell!!

Perhaps I am being too mercenary, by just thinking about his future from a punting perspective, but at the end of the day, there are probably very few of us who would take such an avid interest in horse racing, if there was no betting and therefore a no opportunity to make some cash, by pitting ourselves against the bookmakers and/or fellow exchange punters.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The weightsfor the Grand National were unveiled on Tuesday and to be honest there were very few surprises, other than one of my well handicapped chasers, JORDANS appearing to have been let in lightly off an OR of 150 when compared with his career best RPR of 158.

He runs in the BOBBYJO Chase at Fairyhouse tomorrow, which is a strong trial for the National, but is not well treated at the weights, so it will be interesting how he performs, especially as all of his 7 rivals have also been entered for the Aintree extravaganza.

Since the changes to the GN course at Aintree, the big race has gradually become a far classier event, with a high percentage of runners having previously won, or at least performed to a meaningful level in graded events, which means that it is not easy to apply traditional trends to help whittle down the final runners to a manageable level.

I have found it necessary to tweak my trends annually and have do so again this year, but instead of just analysing just the winners of the last few renewals, I have looked at the characteristics of both the winners and any horses that finished within 10 lengths of the winner in the past 7 Grand Nationals, which has given me a reasonable sample size of 25 horses

The subsequent analysis has generated the following trends, which I intend to adopt for this years race:

Minimum OR = 146 – 25/25
No more than 2 previous falls, or unseats – 25/25
Previously recorded a top 3 finish in a Graded Chase , or won a Listed Chase – 24/25
Irish Trained – 23/25
Top 4 finish within last 3 starts – 23/25
Days since last run = 24-63 – 22/25
Previous top 3 finish in a chase over at least 3m 1.5f and/or a Dosage DI of.ess than 0.75 – 22/25
Previous Chase runs = 6-16 – 19/25
Age = 7-9 years old – 16/25 (all 7 winners)

It is far too early to apply these trends to all the entries, as there is plenty of time for things to change between now and the end of the Grand Nationals trials season.

I will return with an indication of how I will be using these trends and my analysis of the likely runners after the close of the Cheltenham Festival.

However, at this stage I would suggest that any readers who are considering ante post bets on the big race should be wary of parting with their money on any runner who is rated lower than 146, any runner who has fallen, or unseated more than twice during their chasing career, plus any GB trained runner who does not meet all of the other trends, as whilst all trends are there to be broken, the results of the last 7 renewals suggest that it is highly unlikely that such runners will either win, or finish within 10 lengths of the winner.

Moving on to a different subject, today is the day that the CONSTITUTION HILL conundrum is played out at Southwell.

Readers of my previous post will probably have gathered that I was not keen on his chances of making a successful debut on the flat and to be honest at the time of writing up my analysis, his odds of 4/6 suggested that he would be available on Bet 365 to lay at a shade of odds against.

My analysis of his chances taking into account the ability of his twelve rivals suggest that fair odds for CONSTITUTION HILL should be around 6/4 to win and 1/2 for a placed finish, which ifs roughly in line with his current odds, so he is definitely not worth laying now that the market has become more realistic.

However, many bookmakers are offering boosted odds for CONSTITUTION HILL today, including Bet 365 who go Evens for a top 3 finish, which is fair compared with my assessment that he has a 66.7% chance of achieving a place.

This poacher has therefore turned gamekeeper and I have therefore placed a 2 pt bet for a top 3 finish at evens.

Betting bank now 72.82 pts (with 18.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
That price about Constitution Hill was well spotted and a gift at 1-1 for a top 3 finish. I suppose the 64 dollar question is where does he go from here. ?? As you are covering the top contenders at the fast approaching Cheltenham festival I will start placing some handicap Baldricks on the x thread this weekend.
If you have any specific’s from this thread you would like highlighted or linked just let me know.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

CONSTITUTION HILL provided a welcome winner for the thread on Friday, albeit I feel that little fortuitous as I was very keen on opposing him when the entries were first published.

However, I guess my experience on Friday has highlighted a few points that all punters should follow before placing a bet:

1. Get a feel for the market – I had his chance of winning at 40% and his SP was spot on at 6/4.
2. Be flexible – don’t blindly follow first impressions if the price is wrong, but be prepared to change tack if value exists elsewhere.
3. Monitor special offers to find maximum value for your bet.

As for CONSTITUTION HILL’s performance, there is no doubt that it was visually impressive, however I am going to be controversial again, as I was rather surprised that he was awarded an RPR of 103 for his effort at Southwell.

He won comfortably by 9 1/2 lengths and beat the right horses with the second and third home having the best flat form amongst his 12 rivals, with SQUARE NECKER having previously run to an RPR of 87 and GAMBINO coming into the race with a figure of 84.

It is difficult to believe that either of the placed horses improved on their previous best efforts having been beaten so far, so I am inclined to use one, or other of their past RPRs as the standard for calculating CONSTITUTION HILL’s figure.

It is also worth noting that the placed horses were respectively conceding 5 and 7 lbs to the winner.

If SQUARE NECKER is used as the standard, then the winner ran to an RPR of 94, whilst basing the calculation on GAMBINO gives a winning RPR of 93, suggesting that the Racing Post assessment is based more on potential than the bare result.

I suspect that CONSTITUTION HILL is capable of better, but in my opinion he has a fair way to go if his connections decide on a Group race campaign, as the average RPRs required to win a Group 3 over middle distances for horses and geldings aged 4yo, or older is around 113-117, depending on the strength of the race.

Personally, I believe that his performance on Friday has reduced his chance of running over hurdles less likely, as he now has a viable alternative career option and I am fairly sure that his connections will be slightly concerned of the likely negative media response should this well loved gelding suffer a heavy defeat, fall, or worse in the Champion Hurdle.

Anyway, enough of my thoughts, as I am sure the majority of readers will have their own ideas regarding CONSTITUTION HILL.

Betting Bank now 76.82 pts (with 18.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Time to review last week’s graded and group race action.

GRAINNE A CHROI – kicked off proceedings on Wednesday with victory in the Grade 3, Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown at odds of 16/1. She did well to upset the odds on her first run for almost a year, but her resultant RPR of 131, suggests that this was a weak renewal and whilst she is entitled to improve she makes little appeal as a mare to follow in the short term.

BON VIVEUR – defied a significant walk in the market from 4/1 to win the Grade 3, Novice Hurdle at Thurles on Thursday at 14/1 outsider in a field of four. His winning RPR of 131 is nothing special, when compared to the figures produced by past winners of this event and the form appears suspect as they went a funeral early pace, resulting in a sprint finish from just before the penultimate hurdle.

Before discussing the national hunt action on Saturday, I want to cover off the Grade 3, Winter Derby at Lingfield.

SKY SAFARI – showed a good turn of pace to win by a neck in this steadily run race over 10 furlongs, for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 108. Her form on synthetic surfaces now reads 6 wins and a second place (btn a head) from 7 attempts and the nature of this victory suggests that she should be capable of adding further successes in the future at either 1 mile, or 10 furlongs.

Moving on to the national hunt action at Kempton:

LA LUNA ARTISTA – this filly trounced the runner up by 13 lengths in the Grade 2, Adonis Hurdle, but was receiving weight from all her rivals, resulting in a modest winning RPR of 116, albeit this was a career best effort. Whether she would have prevailed had the odds on favourite not suffered a fatal fall is open to debate and I doubt she will be competitive in other open graded hurdles this season, but she may be worth considering in Mares’ only novice chases in the future.

JAX JUNIOR – landed the odds for favourite backers with a comfortable victory against weak opposition in the Grade 2, Pendil Novice Chase. He recorded a career best RPR of 145, which is the lowest winning rating during the past decade, which suggests that he will need to find significant improvement if he is to prevail at the top level.

KLUB DE REVE – was successful in the Grade 2, Dovecote Novices Hurdle for which he recorded a career best RPR of 135. He appears to be progressing well over hurdles and whilst a trip to Cheltenham may come too soon, he may be worth considering if sent to Aintree in April.

Fairyhouse provided the Graded action in Ireland on Saturday.

GRANGECLARE WEST – recorded his first victory since December 2023, when scoring in the Grade 3, Bobbyjo Chase, which is currently the best Grand National trial, with the last 2 winners following up at Aintree. He was awarded an RPR of 168 for his 5 1/2 lengths victory, which should set him up nicely in his attempt to improve on his third place finish in last year’s National. I suspect that he will run well again, barring accidents, but I am not convinced that he become the first 10yo winner during the past decade.

Moving on to Sunday:

POTTERS CHARM – didn’t have to be at his best to record his seventh victory over hurdles from 11 attempts when finishing 2 lengths clear in the Grade 2, National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. He was awarded an RPR of 148 for this effort, which is 5 lbs below his best figure to date. He will need to improve significantly if he is to secure a second Grade 1 victory, but should remain competitive in lesser events.

BLOOD DESTINY – was successful in the Grade 3 chase over 2 miles at Naas, but his winning RPR of 155 is 5 lbs below his best figure and his inconsistency suggests that he is not one to follow in the future.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The weights for the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival have been published today, so it is now time to starting looking at these races for antepost betting opportunities.

The first handicap on Tuesday is the Fred Winter Juvenile Novice Hurdle, which tends to throw up some surprises, as there is not a huge amount of form to go on and often potential outweighs ratings.

However, there are 3 trends that have emerged over the past 8 renewals which all the winners have met, namely:

Trained in Ireland
Official Rated no lower than 122
Best RPR no worse than 8 lbs lower than OR

Adopting these trends has left me with a shortlist of just 2 entries:

MADNESS D’ELLE trained by Willie Mullins who hasn’t saddled the winner of this race during the past decade
MODE AVION trained by Gordon Elliott who has saddled 3 of the last 8 winners of this race

MODE AVION also stands out like a sore thumb as he is the only entry with a RPR (134) greater than his OR (133), which suggest that he has around 7 lbs in hand of his nearest rival, which is a fairly good margin in a race where so many rivals have the potential to improve.

He achieved his best RPR winning a weak 4yo handicap by 12 lengths at Fairyhouse on Saturday, so his form is very recent, but without that win and subsequent OR hike, he probably would not have been guaranteed a run, so perhaps his connections have been targeting this race for some time?

In addition, all of his 4 runs in Ireland have been on heavy ground and Saturday was the first time that he hasn’t weakened at the end of the race, so perhaps he is open to further improvement on better ground.

Anyway enough of my marketing spiel for this horse, which I have backed each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) with William Hill (NRNB) @ 20/1.

I will return with further antepost investments as I plough my way through the handicap races.

Betting Bank now 75.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Author]

Posts