QUALITY RACING 2026

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I have started the Ante Post Wagers thread off and linked it to this thread as potential reading. ? It has already (hit wise) stirred a bit of interest from some old followers (as opposed to members). Therefore I will start working on updating my end of the Cheltenham ante posts (awaiting NRNB) which will primarily be the Novice and Juvenile races.
I only mention this as I am wondering whether you have a list of races you will be covering and on the flip side are there any races you will be avoiding. ?

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for linking my ramblings to the new antepost thread.

As usual you have asked a very pertinent question and I wish I could provide a definitive answer, but to be honest no top quality races at the Cheltenham Festival, or at other venues throughout the year will be off limits, provided my selections meet all of the following criteria:

1. I must be fairly confident that the selection will turn up for the race, or can be backed non runner no bet, as there is nothing worse in my ethos than not getting a run for my money.

2.. I must be fairly confident that my selections meet has a reasonable chance of either winning, or providing a positive place return, irrespective of which of the other entered runners turn up on the day.

3. I must be fairly confident that the antepost odds and place terms represent value when compared with the likely odds and places on offer on the day of the race.

Hence the majority of antepost bets made so far are on selections, who have just 1 entry at the Cheltenham Festival and have already shortened in the antepost markets.

Which brings me on to the main purpose of this post, which is to provide some thoughts on the entries that were made for the 6 novice events at the Cheltenham Festival which were published yesterday.

I will start with the hurdle races, which despite the large volume of entries proved rather easier for me to analyse.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE – 64 entries

Only 2 entries currently catch my eye as potential winners of the first race at the festival, namely OLD PARK STAR, who I have already commented on at length and backed antepost, plus TALK THE TALK who fell when looking like the winner last time out (not ideal) is also entered in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle.

TURNERS NOVICES’ HURDLE – 94 entries

Just 3 entries have currently made the shortlist, namely LOVE ME TENDER (also entered in the Albert Bartlett), plus SOBER and TALK THE TALK (who are both entered for the Supreme).

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE – 83 entries

My current shortlist consists of 7 entries, all of which are also entered in the Turners, namely CLASSICAL CREEK, FORTY COATS, KICOUR LA, KLIMT MADRIK, LOVE ME TENDER, SANTO SOSPIR and SORTUDO.

TRIUMPH HURDLE – 68 entries

Only 2 names have made the shortlist so far, namely NARCISCO HAS and ONE HORSE TOWN, but the former appears to short in the market to back at this stage, whereas the later could well end up running in the 4yo handicap hurdle at the festival.

Moving on to the novice chases, I found these much tougher to deal with despite the small number of entries, as they produced larger shortlists, plus there are a number of alternative races for which entries have yet to be published (e.g. National Hunt Chase, various novice and open handicaps, etc), which leaves us with a very murky picture.

ARKLE CHASE – 23 entries

My current shortlist contains 7 entries, but of these only 2 entries have no alternative targets, namely KOPEK DES BORDES and LULAMBA, who are both too short in the market, if ROMEO COOLIO turns up on the day.

BROWN ADVISORY NOVICE’S CHASE – 43 entries

There are 8 entries on my current shortlist, but I suspect that all but FINAL DEMAND either have and/orwill be given other options, so this is not a race to get involved in at this stage.

In conclusion, I have no additional selections at this stage, as none of my shortlisted entries meet the criteria at the top of this post, but will review these races again once non runner no bet odds become available.

All the best,

Rob

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Regular readers will probably remember that I highlighted about a week ago that JORDANS is a well handicapped chaser, who could be a plot horse for the Theystes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park.

Well he is scheduled to run in the race tomorrow and I believe that he is probably the best handicapped runner in the race, but his ability to handle exceptionally testing conditions has to be taken on trust, as his previous form on heavy ground over hurdles in France, is difficult to assess, although both his sire and damsire (dam unraced) have both enjoyed success with their progeny on testing ground.

Joseph O’Brien’s comments regarding the gelding appear to support my thoughts, as he also believes that JORDANS is currently treated to be competitive in this type of race, but has concerns as to whether he will handle the underfoot conditions.

It is also interesting to note that both the Racing Post’s Spotlight and Ten Year Trends tipsters have nominated JORDANS, which is not ideal as I believe he should be a 12/1 shot, which is exactly the best odds on offer, so at present he offers no value and with the support of 2 RP tipsters he could shorten further.

This is a dilemma as I am not keen to back JORDANS without an edge, so will wait until tomorrow morning to see whether I can secure some value and will update the thread tomorrow either way.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Despite keeping a regular eye on the Thyestes market, JORDANS was never offered at odds greater than 12/1, so no bet today.

The finishing times at Gowran Park support the visual impression that the underfoot conditions were attritional, with only 5 of the 18 runners finishing in the Thyestes Handical Chase, with JORDANS joining 9 other rivals who were pulled up.

My impression is that JORDANS did not run too badly, until he got very tired after the second last fence, prior to being pulled up before the final fence, so I still believe that he remains well handicapped and would be of interest in a similar staying handicap Chase, on better ground, assuming that he can get over today’s exercions.

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I had also been keeping an eye out for this race as I had Quai De Bourbon running but also bypassed the race as the ground was atrocious and you know my feelings on backing in such conditions.
On the plus side with regard to Jordans and Quai De Bourbon although a tough race I honestly believe most jockeys did the honorable thing here and eased there horses down or pulled up when realising there chance had gone.
I have a feeling theses two will meet again somewhere down the line and I sense a bet builder here or a kit kat challenge….lol.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I think you are probably right with your suggestion that our selections for yesterday’s race will lock horns again in the future.

As for whether they will need time to get over their experiences, I would be wary of backing either without them enjoying at least a 50 day break, as they were both pulled up between the penultimate and final fences, which suggests that the had both run their race and were probably exhausted.

As for today’s selections, there should be no issues with underfoot conditions, as I am off to Meydan for the two Group 1 events at 4.25 on dirt and the 5.00 on turf.

The winner of the 4.25 races is highly likely to come from the top 4 in the betting who can be backed at best odds ranging from 9/4 to 5/1. The runner that has caught my attention is IMPERIAL EMPEROR, who finished runner up in this race last year, but has since won a couple of Group 2s at this track and based on RPRs he appears to have improved since last year’s defeat.

Moving on to the 5.00 race, the betting market suggest that this should be a penalty kick for the long odds on favourite OPERATOR BALOO, who beat my selection NATIONS PRIDE by 3 lengths over today’s course and distance. However, I suspect that the runner up is capable of performing better than he showed last time out and is worth chancing to reverse the placings at the current prices.

I have backed both selections in what I hope will prove to be a low risk/high reward double, as follows:

0.5 pts win double with B365 on IMPERIAL EMPEROR @ 7/2 and NATIONS PRIDE @ 11/2 (B365 Bet Boost Odds) which pays 28.25/1

1.5 pts top finish double on IMPERIAL EMPEROR (5 places) @ 1/5 and NATIONS PRIDE (3 places) @ 1/3 which pays a shade under 0.6/1.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

My miserable betting performance during January continues, despite my first selection IMPERIAL EMPEROR winning at 7/2, but the win and top finish doubles were scuppered by NATIONS PRIDE only finishing fourth of the 6 runners in the next race.

It was all the more frustrating, as NATIONS PRIDE was allowed to do too much in front too soon meaning that he had nothing left in the last 2 furlongs, gradually weakening and lost third place by a short head – had he held on I would at least have picked up a small profit for the top finish double!!

Although there are plenty of graded races and top quality handicaps this weekend, nothing stands out from a betting perspective, although I shall be keeping a close eye on the results for clues for the Cheltenham Festival.

Bank balance now 88.82 pts (with 8.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just a quick post detailing my thought on the result of the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle held at Gowran Park on Thursday.

The winner HOME BY THE LEE did well to give weight to his 5 rivals in such atrocious conditions to record a near personal best RPR of 162. However, he has failed in 4 previous attempts to win the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham, whilst his two 2 level hurdles wins have been achieved at Leopardstown, which suggests to me that he is unlikely to gain a third Grade 1 victory this spring, albeit he should be worth considering in calmer waters.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have to say that I was totally underwhelmed by the winning performances of the graded races at both Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday.

Most of the races were run at a funeral early pace, resulting in sprint finishes, which means that these trials give us very few clues as to whether the runners will appreciate the hurly burly of the fast run races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Anyway, here are my thoughts regarding the seven Grade 2 events:

DONCASTER

THEDEVILUNO – appreciated the step up to 3 miles in a truly run race to post a career best RPR of 145. That figure marks him as a realistic contender for the Albert Bartlett, albeit he will probably need to find a further improvement of at least 6 lbs if he is to win the race at the festival, for which he is quoted at 14/1 best odds.

FEET OF A DANCER – won the next race for mares over the same distance, but in a time 10 seconds slower than her above mentioned stablemate. She was also stepping up in trip, but her winning RPR of 143, leaves her well short of the figure needed to win a Stayers’ Hurdle, whilst the drop back in distance for the Mares’ Hurdle looks less than ideal.

CHELTENHAM

MAESTRO CONTI – has shown progressive form in Juvenile Hurdles, but his winning RPR of just 123 for narrowly beating a fairly exposed opponent leaves him needing to find at least another 20 lbs improvement to win a moderate Triumph Hurdle. His current best odds of 9/1 for that race indicates that this year’s juveniles are a very moderate bunch.

SPILLANE’S TOWER – returned to form for which he was awarded a RPR of 164, but with the favourite GREY DAWNING running a strange race in third, the race took little winning. He will probably run in the Gold Cup, but is unlikely to get involved in the finish, unless he can find around 14 lbs improvement on his 12th start over fences.

THE NEW LION – the early pace was lamentably steady, resulting in a finishing time that was 13 seconds slower than the earlier Triumph Hurdle trial, plus the race was spoilt as a proper test when the hot favourite SIR GINO, was pulled up injured. At least THE NEW LION completed this time and managed to scramble home against a couple of significantly inferior rivals, for which he was awarded a fairly meaningless RPR of just 147. He really needs a strongly run race at 2 miles, which at least he should get in the Champion Hurdle, but whether he offers any value at current best odds of 10/3 is debatable, as he probably needs to improve his career best RPR by at least 8 lbs, over a distance which may prove short of his best.

MA SHANTOU – recorded a career best RPR of 155 for this winning effort and clearly enjoys racing at Cheltenham having won in 3 of his 4 attempts. That said, the two hurdlers that followed him home ran below their best and he will probably need to improve at least 10 lbs to win an average Stayers’ Hurdle.

KRIPTICJIM – progressive novice hurdler who has won his last 3 starts, recording a career best RPR of 133 for this victory in the dark, due to the race being delayed. Although he is entered at the Cheltenham Festival, it is difficult to imagine him being good enough to be involved in the finish of a Grade 1 novice event.

None of the above results have prompted me to add any further antepost bets to my small portfolio.

I will provide my thoughts on the graded race action in Ireland on Sunday over the next couple of days.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Here are my thoughts in respect of the two Grade 3 races at Naas on Sunday:

GLEN KILN – recorded a career best RPR of 151 to win the Limestone Lad Hurdle over 2 miles. His performances this season suggest that he is still improving on his 18th career start over hurdles, but this is probably his level and whilst he jumped well on this occasion, two unseats in his last 6 attempts suggests that backing him comes with risks attached.

ARGENTO BOY – stayed on strongly to record an RPR of 150 in the Novice Chase over 3 miles 1/2 furlong. He appears to relish both heavy ground and a test of stamina, and whilst he is unlikely to cope with step up to Grade 1 level (needs to improve at least a further 10 lbs), he may be of interest in either the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, which is now run as a handicap, or the Irish Grand National, albeit his chances will be very much dependent on what the Irish and BHA assessors make of this victory.

Whilst writing, it was interesting to see that Tom Segal (Pricewise) has put up BOB OLINGER as his antepost tip for the Stayers Hurdle, resulting in his odds contracting to 6/1 generally (7/1 B365 and 8/1 William Hill), which suggests that win or lose my 14/1 ticket offer a bit of value).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Me again!!

I didn’t mention the Cheltenham handicap chases on Trials day during yesterday’s review, but now the BHA handicapper has reassessed the form, I think I may have uncovered some well handicapped horses that would be of interest if turning up at the Festival.

DONNACHA – has only been raised 4 lbs to 136 for his victory in the 2m 4 1/2 furlong handicap chases, which was one of the few races that was run at a strong pace, despite recording a career best RPR of 143. His obvious target will be the Plate Handicap Chase, which will be run on the speedier old course this year, but should not inconvenience him.

JAGWAR – was beaten a neck by DONNACHA on Saturday, but still recorded a career best RPR of 160, but his OR has only been raised 3 lbs to 152 for that effort, which means that he is slightly better treated than the winner. He is a specialist on the new course and may be inconvenienced in the Plate on the faster old course, especially as his jumping at speed can be a little sketchy at times, so perhaps it is time for his connections to bite the bullet and step him up in trip for the Ultima Handicap Chase.

ANNUAL INVICTUS – only finished fourth on his first attempt on the cross country course, but he made up a significant amount of ground towards the finish despite his jockey advising us that his saddled had slipped. He was beaten over 15 lengths and the handicapper has eased him a couple of lbs to a rating of 135. However, in light of the slipping saddle and his inexperience of cross country obstacles, I believe that he could easily improve by at least 14 lbs next time, in which case he would be a leading each way player over the same course at the festival. That said, he will probably be running from a few lbs out of the handicap, so much will depend on how the BHA handicapper treats last years winner STUMPTOWN, who is currently rated 157 in Ireland and will almost certainly be top weight and nudged up a little for last year’s victory.

All the best,

Rob.

PS – if anyone has any thoughts they wish to share, or disagrees with my ideas, please feel free to respond at any time, as the more insight we get the better our chances of finding some value selections.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The first day of the Dublin Racing Festival has provided a couple of selections, so hopefully Leopardstown will pass tomorrow’s inspection.

1.50 – MANGE TOUT – beat her main road rival NARSICO by 2 3/4 lengths receiving 3 lbs last time and now faces that gelding again in receipt of 7 lbs, albeit that rival has since improved to take a Grade 2. Based on adjusted RPRs, the pair should dead heat, yet the favourite is currently best priced at 10/11, whilst my selection is available with Bet 365 at 3/1.

3.30 – AFFORDABLE FURY – won the Grade 1 over today’s course and distance at Christmas, yet is on currently offer at 8/1 with B365 against 12 rivals who all have questions to answer.

I have place 0.5 pts win bets on each, plus a top finish double with Bet 365 with MANGE TOOT @ 10/19 for 3 places and AFFORDABLE FULY for 6 places @ 4/7 which pays around 1.3/1.

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Obviously with the original meeting being postponed is your original bet still valid. ? I know some bookmakers roll the bet over and some void them.
I have also started work on my Ante Post selections now that Non Runner No Bet has started to appear and one we both agree on is Love Me Tender. I will be putting this one up as my first bet for The Albert Bartlett @ 20-1 with Paddy Power.
Love Me Tender runs today against Doctor Steinburg currently 5-1 for favourite for The Albert Bartlett and looks a shot to nothing especially if he puts in an error free round today.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Saturday’s. bet still stands with B365.

I will also start looking for NRNB opportunities over the next few days, but want to digest the fallout from the DRF first, as a number of Sunday’s results look rather suspect from a form perspective, especially when considering Cheltenham on what will hopefully prove to be less attritional ground.

I have a horrible feeling that today’s results may also need careful scrutiny.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Another poor performance by my selections, with MANGE TOOT finishing third and AFFORDABLE FURY being pulled up, which scuppered even the top finish double, which is indicative of my punting prowess at present.

Hopefully thing will improve soon.

Moving on, here are my thoughts on the results of the Grade 1 events on Saturday, Sunday and Monday:

SIXMILEBRIDGE – sprang a surprise at Sandown in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase over 2m4f for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 155. However, his task was made easier by the favourite unseating early on and he appeared to handle the underfoot conditions better than his remaining two rivals, which makes me sceptical of what he actually achieved. He will need to either step up, or down in trip if running in either of the Grade 1 Novice Chases at Cheltenham and further significant improvement will be required.

KAID D’AUTHIE – recorded a career best RPR of 162 for his victory in the Ladbroke Novice Chase at Leopardstown, which suggests that he could be a player in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham. However, it is difficult to take the form at face value when both his stablemates, including the odds on favourite FINAL DENAND both ran below form, which his only other rival WESTERN FOLD, who finished runner up would have hated the ground.

TALK THE TALK – did well to get up on the line to win the 2 mile novice hurdle for which he was awarded an RPR of 144, however there was little to choose between the top 3 finishers, suggesting the form is nothing special. He will need to improve significantly in the Supreme Novice Hurdle to beat the current favourite OLD PARK STAR.

MAJBOROUGH – finally proved that he could jump fences when demolishing his rivals by 19 lengths to take the Dublin Chase, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 179. That figure is well out of line with his previous performances, which suggests that he has either made rapid improvement in the last month, or he was the only runner who really handled the underfoot conditions. My take is that his jumping could still prove an issue at pace on faster ground and I believe that the runner up MARINE NATIONAL, will reverse the form in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham providing the going is no worse than soft.

BETTERDAYSAHEAD – beat he main market rival LOSSIEMOUTH fare and square to take the Irish Champion Hurdle. She was awarded an RPR of 162 for that effort, which on paper gives her every chance of winning the equivalent race at Cheltenham. However, she appears to perform significantly better at Leopardstown that elsewhere and has been beaten on both attempts at Cheltenham. In my opinion, LOSSIEMOUTH is the more likely winner if the pair should lock horns at Cheltenham, albeit her connections have a track record of bypassing the Champion Hurdle in favour of the Grade 1 mares event.

DOCTOR STEINBERG – easily justified favouritism in the 2m6f Grade 1 novice event to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles and could well be capable of significant additional improvement. An RPR of 149 suggests that he has strong claims in either the Turners, or Albert Bartlett novice hurdles at Cheltenham, albeit the latter race has proved to be a graveyard for favourites over the past decade.

NARSICO HAS – cemented his position at the head of the betting for the Triumph Hurdle with a bold front running display in the Juvenile Hurdle for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 139. He probably needs to improve at least another 6 lbs to win at Cheltenham, but he certainly in pole position at this stage.

ROMEO COOLIO – maintained his unbeaten record over fences and notched his third Grade 1 success in the Irish Arkle, but his RPR of 157 was 4 lbs below his best effort, which strongly suggests that he needs further than 2 miles, so a step up in trip for the Brown Advisory could be the best option for him, especially as FINAL DEMAND fluffed his lines on Sunday.

FACT TO FILE – recorded a strong performance to win the Irish Gold Cup by 5 lengths from stablemate GAELIC WARRIOR by 5 lengths. His winning RPR of 177 was a career equalling best effort and suggests that he does stay 3 miles, which from my perspective is a real kick in the teeth, as connections are likely to supplement him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which would scupper my antepost ticket on him to win the Ryanair Chase, which was his only entry for the festival. I may be biased, but I am not convinced that he will win the Gold Cup, based on this effort, as he has a further 2 furlongs to travel in a race that it likely to run at a strong pace.

There were also two Grade 2 Bumpers run at Leopardstown, but neither the mare MOONVERRIN (RPR 118), nor the gelding BROADWAY TED (RPR 128) produced the sort of performance to suggest that they would be capable of winning the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.

Betting Bank now 86.82 pts ( with 8.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

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