QUALITY RACING 2026

[Mike]

Hi Rob
A soon as the non runner no bets come into effect I may well start off an ante post thread as it could tie in nicely with the TTF competition as I do have a couple of 50-1 plus shots lined up from the database. We used to run a Cheltenham Countdown thread many years ago which was profitable and quite popular but that could be extended to cover the Punchestown end of season meeting. ?

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I thought I was getting too old to start learning new tricks, but I am finally beginning to warm to some strategic antepost wagering, so would be happy to be involved..

Perhaps the antepost thread should be allowed to run throughout the year, as there may be other opportunities to take early prices outside of the Cheltenham to Punchestown Festival window, including dare I say flat races!!

It is interesting that as far as I am aware none of the major bookmakers have started offering NRNB odds for Cheltenham, which suggests that they are still doing brisk business at standard term, it what is proving to be a fairly open group of races, without many short price favourites.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Here are my thoughts in respect of the winners of graded winners last week.

I’LL SORT THAT proved to be very tenacious in winning the rescheduled Grade 1 Novice hurdle at Naas, maintaining his unbeaten record over hurdles, but his RPR of 144 suggests that this was one of the weakest renewal in the past decade. To be honest, I can’t help thinking that his winning run is a product of the moderate quality of this year’s novices over timbre, rather than his latent ability. Based on the fact that he will probably need to improve another 7 lbs at least to be competitive in another Grade 1 novice event during the Spring, I will be looking to oppose him in such events.

EDWARDSTONE proved that age is no barrier to win the Grade 2 chase at Kempton, but was receiving weight from 3 out of form rivals, of which the odds on favourite failed to complete. Life will be tough for this admirable 12yo going forward as he is clearly not capable of winning a Grade 1 and will have to shoulder a penalty in similar lower graded events, but he could be of interest in a top class handicap (Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival) if the BHA handicapper doesn’t increase his OR much above his current figure of 152.

KAPPA JY PYKE recorded a fair win in the Grade 3 Novice Chase at Punchestown on Sunday for which he was awarded an RPR of 151. That figure suggests that he still has a bit to find with this season’s best novice chasers, but this was only his second start over fences, so may be capable of better, especially around 2 1/2 miles, which seems to suit him for the present.

SOBER took the Grade 2 novice hurdle over 2 miles 1/2 furlongs, but his winning RPR of 141 is nothing special when compared with past renewal of this race, or in the context of this year’s novice hurdle performances. That said, he recorded his best flat form over staying distances and would have found this tactical affair over the minimum distance far from ideal. Although I would wish to oppose him over 2 miles, he would be of interest over staying distances, especially as he has shown that he can quicken off a moderate pace.

I will return later with my thoughts in respect of the latest batch of Cheltenham entries which are due to be published at lunch time today.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

There are no major surprises in respect of the entries for the Grade 1 Champion, Mares and Stayers Hurdles at Cheltenham, but the picture is probably likely to remain fuzzy until the final declations for the Championship Hurdle are known on the Sunday prior to the festival, due to both LOSSIEMOUTH and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD also being entered for the Mare Hurdle.

If one or both of these mares line up for the Champion Hurdle, they would provide the biggest threat to current warm favourite SIR GINO as allowing for the mares allowance of 7 lbs, LOSSIEMOUTH is rated 4lbs superior, whilst BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD holds a very significant 9lbs advantage.

Clearly, things could change between now and then, as all the main protagonists are likely to run again before the festival, but even then we will probably be none the wiser as to the target race for each of these mares.

It used to be so much easier before the advent of the Mares Hurdle!!

At least the Stayers Hurdle appears to be a little easier to analyse, albeit the winning machine WODHOOH is doubly entered in this race and the mares hurdle.

My shortlist for Stayers hurdle is very short, as it contains just 3 of the 29 entries, namely BALLYBURN (has a history of playing up and twice beaten by TEAHUPOO this season), TEAHUPOO (one win in the race, but has started favourite on all 3 attempts) and my antepost selection BOB OLINGER (beat TEAHUPOO fair and square last year).

Having taken 14/1 on BOB OLINGER last week, it is pleasing to note that he is now best priced at 9/1 with William Hills and as low as 7/1 with Bet 365.

As for the mares hurdle, the current betting market is a complete minefield, with the top 6 either holding either entries in the Champion, or Stayers hurdles, or currently running in Novice Chases, of these WODHOOH appears to be the most likely to line up for the mares hurdle, but at 7/4 she offers no value.

I am not inclined to add to my antepost portfolio at this stage.

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I have not forgotten about the “Ante Post” thread and a few companies are offering no runner no bet on few big races in general so I am guessing it will not be long before one of goes all in for Cheltenham. I will make the thread for all races not just Cheltenham and will start if off regardless by the weekend so you can transfer and/or link your existing bets to the new thread. I think looking at your existing wagers your bets will make a tidy start to kick the thread off.
If you are not sure how to post links just post and I will edit a link into the post for you.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The Mares’ Listed Chase (3.15 Newbury) looks interesting despite there being only 5 runners.

The hit favourite PANIC ATTACK (best odds 1/6) appears to be the proverbial dead cert, whilst the second favourite MOLTO BENE is unbeaten over fences in 2 starts.

However, the runner that has got me interested is ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE, who is rather inconsistent with just a single victory and a couple of placed efforts over fences, but she appreciates good to good to soft ground (career best RPR in chases 127), which matches her closely with MOLTO BENE and puts her well clear of the two rags.

I have therefore invested 0.5 win with Bet 365 at 22/1 BOG (best odds elsewhere 18/1) in the vain hope that she can beat the market leaders, plus 1.5 pts for a top 3 finish at 8/11, which is the more likely scenario.

Bank balance now 92.22 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Despite having been sent off at 10/1, which made my 22/1 win bet appear rather shrewd, ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE was well beaten by the two mares at the top of the betting, but at least she was able to finish in third place, which was always the most likely outcome, to provide a return of 2.60 pts and therefore a profit of 0.60 pts.

Bank balance now 94.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Sorry, I missed your latest post regarding the antepost thread yesterday.

Linking my antepost activity on this thread to the new antepost thread would seem to be the way forward, but as I struggle with most modern technology (I can’t even master our TV), may I ask that you do the linking for me?

Whilst writing, I thought it would be worthwhile sharing a couple of what appear to be well handicapped Irish trained horses with readers.

I STARTED A JOKE – OR 126 – RPR 135

I can’t take credit for this one, as Keith Melrose highlighted this Charles Byrne trained gelding in the Racing Post. However, I am amazed that the Irish handicapper has only raised him 5 lbs for his maiden hurdle victory at Punchestown on Sunday.

His ultra shrewd trainer, will almost certainly be devising a plan to target one of the big handicap hurdles in the not too distant future and my initial thought was that he would be an ideal candidate for the Listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival over 2 miles in a couple of weeks time, but the trainers comments suggest that he is likely to be upped in trip.

Anyway the gelding has been added to my tracker and I await further developments with interest.

JORDANS – OR 150 – RPR 158

I noticed this chaser when reviewing the early entries for next week’s Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park.

Joseph O’Brien is very much a target trainer, which suggests he has a plan for this classy gelding, who won a Grade 3 and was second in a couple of Grade 1 chases as a novice last year, but has reverted to hurdles for his 2 races so far this season, presumably to protect his handicap rating over fences.

He recorded a career best hurdles RPR of 130 on his last start when finishing 5th in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown after Christmas, so is clearly in good form, so perhaps the plan will culminate with a run at Gowran Park next week.

Either way, he is another one for the tracker.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

GALAXY STAR looks interesting in the Listed Mares’ Flat Race (2.40 Market Rasen).

4yo runners who are close to the head of the betting have an excellent record in this race, which is hardly surprising as they receive 13 lbs from the older mares. Although she was beaten a head by the other 4yo runner in this race on their latest start, GALAXY STAR is now 7 lbs better off, so should be capable of reversing that form this time around. She also comes out best on adjusted RPRs, which suggest she should hold her own against her elders.

I had expected her to be on offer at around 4/1, so was surprised to see her available at 13/2.

I have therefore invested 0.5 pts to win at 13/2, plus 1.5 pts for a top 5 finish at 5/8 with Bet 365 – fingers crossed she doesn’t drift.

Bank balance now 92.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well, I was spot on with predicting the likely odds as GALAXY STAR was indeed sent off at an SP of 4/1, unfortunately she did not run like a joint second favourite and weakened in the last 2 furlongs to finish a disappointing seventh.

Just a reminder that placing value bets doesn’t necessarily pay the bills in the short term.

Bank balance remains at 92.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Despite the plethora of good quality races tomorrow, I have struggled to find many opportunities for a bet, except for one horse that is both obvious and even then the bet is contingent on the generosity of the bookmakers who still accept my bets.

The horse in question is IL ETAIT TEMPS in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (3.30 Ascot), who has already twice beaten his main market rival JONBON, including last time out at Sandown, for which my selection recorded the highest RPR awarded this season of 178.

Unfortunately, his current best odds of 4/7 offer no value for a bet, as in my opinion he should be an 8/11 shot at worst.

That said, I strongly suspect that Bet 365 and perhaps at least one of my other bookmakers will offer enhanced odds, probably evens after 9.00 am tomorrow morning, which will be perfectly acceptable.

There will be a maximum stake allowed for each odds boost offered which will determine the size of bet that I can place, so I will update the thread, once my fate is known.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is not often that I thank my bookmaker, but I will make an exception today, as none of them enticed me to back IL ETAIT TEMPS by offering a worthwhile odds boost and thus saved me a couple of points!!

As for the horse’s performance, he ran flat and to my eye never appeared likely to win, before a tired looking fall at the second last fence, which is another reminder that whilst the form of Willie Mullins’ stable has improved some of his most fancied runners are going missing.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing stands out in respect of today’s racing, despite the number of quality races on offer.

In light of the current form of Willie Mullins’ runners, I was almost tempted to lay JADE DU GRUGY at Thurles, but she is so far clear of her 5 rivals, that it is difficult to find something to beat her, whilst her stables’ form is inconsistent rather than poor, so it is a case of needing a crystal ball to pinpoint those runners that are going to underperform.

However, I have just placed another antepost bet for Cheltenham.

MARINE NATIONAL won last year’s Champion Chase with ease and appears to face a similar level of competition for the race this time around, as his main market rivals all appear to have issues:

MAJBOROUGH – has jumping issues
IL ETAIT TEMPS, JONBON and SOLNESS – all struggle to produce their best form at Cheltenham
L’EAU DU SUD and THISTLE ASK – appear not good enough to win a Grade 1
QUILIXIOUS – fell in race last year and has not been seen since
SIR GINO – highly likely to run in Champion Hurdle

At this stage, odds of 7/4 with William Hill appear more than fair for MARINE NATIONAL to retain his title.

OLD PARK STAR was highly impressive when running away with the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Haydock yesterday and already has a victory over hurdles at Cheltenham to his name, albeit on the new course, whereas the Supreme is run on the faster old course, which should suit this prominent racer.

There are still plenty of opportunities for other contenders to step up to the plate, but history suggests that Nicky Henderson’s top notch novices are notoriously difficult to beat in the Supreme, so the standout 11/4 on offer with William Hill appears to offer some value, especially as there could be a few defections for alternative targets.

I have placed a 1 pt each way (1/5 odds for 3 places) double on the pair with William Hill, who have also allowed me to boost the resultant odds by 9% to 10.12/1.

Bank balance now 90.82 pts (with 8.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A few thoughts regarding the graded race winners on Friday and Saturday.

NO QUESTIONS ASKED – appeared to appreciate dropping in distance to 2 miles when winning the Grade 2 novice chase at Windsor on Friday. However his jumping was not great, albeit slightly better than the runner up and a career best RPR of 151 suggests that he has plenty to find to be competitive against the best novices over the minimum distance.

OLD PARK STAR – his performance in the Grade 2 novice hurdle has already been covered in my previous post, but it is worth mentioning that he was awarded an RPR of 152 for that effort, which suggests that at this stage of his career he is roughly on a par with ALTIOR, SHISKIN and CONSTITUTION HILL, who all won the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

OOH BETTY – spang a surprise in a weak renewal of the Grade 2 mares’ hurdle at Ascot, but her career best equalling RPR of 133 on her 24th start over hurdles suggests that she is basically just a handicapper.

JONBON – benefitted from IL ETAIT TEMPS running flat to win the Grade 1 Chase at Ascot for the second year running, but his RPR of 169 was 3 lbs lower than recorded last year. The only other finisher THISTLE ASK was the outsider of the 4 runners and whilst he ran to a career best RPR of 165, he appears to be a few lbs below the top level at this stage, plus he has a tendency to jump to his right, which is a negative at Cheltenham. In my opinion, JONBON appears to be a waining force over the minimum trip, but may be worth considering over 2 1/2 miles, provided he stays away from Cheltenham where he has suffered 5 defeats from 7 attempts.

I will review Sunday’s graded race action later this week.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As promised, here are my thoughts on the Graded action from last Sunday:

SALVER – justified favouritism in the Grade 2 novice chase at Windsor, finishing ahead of a couple of rivals that he had previously beaten by further at Sandown in early December, which suggests that he is probably not progressing and is unlikely to score at the top level as a novice chaser.

JADE DE GRUGY – it is difficult to get a handle on what she achieved in dominating this Grade 2 novice chase for Mares at Thurles, as the standard of her rivals was probably the most moderate that I have seen for a very long time. She was awarded an RPR of 147 for her easy 18 length success, which is still 6 lbs shy of her best figure over hurdles and also leaves her plenty to find if she is to be competitive in the Grade 2 mares chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

APPRECIATE IT – recorded a career best RPR of 166 for his second consecutive victory in the Grade 2 Chase at Thurles, but as his 3 main rivals in the 5 runner field were fellow stablemates, it is uncertain as to what he has really achieved. It is admirable that this 12yo has posted his two highest RPRs from 2 races so far this season, but I will not be rushing to back him next time out.

I will now start reviewing the entries for the six Grade 1 novice events at the Cheltenham Festival and will share my thoughts in the next day, or so.

All the best,

Rob.

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