Hopefull’s (hard work)

[Mike]

Hi
I have had a query last night over backing what appears to be a lost cause in Foshan and why he should be worth a punt today. We have mentioned the trainer aspect which might be a topic for another thread but the handicap side of things is often confusing.
Foshan has been running in Maiden races which means usually with the exception of say a Mares allowance etc the horses run against each other all carrying the same weight. Now Foshan has been allotted a handicap mark of 69 for his first handicap run today. Most of the horses he has been well beaten by previously are now rated at 110 or more which means if he was to run against them in todays race he would effectively be carrying in excess of thirty pounds less in weight. That cannot really happen as the race has a maximum handicap rating of 0-100. Therefore not only is Foshan carrying less weight than usual but it is against inferior horses (rated maximum a 100).
Why I said today was the day if you were going to back him is that his rating will not go much lower so if he is going to do something today could be the day.
For those following the thread Foshan started to move in price last night so we went in again at 20-1 for 6 places but that is just an option he is still a risky proposition. Backing him twice at different prices etc is (probabaly) going to need explaining as well and I can see this horse (win lose or draw) is going to be the start of another thread…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
“Hopefull” did his job with the selection I did mine with the groundwork and optional wagers Foshan did his job ran a blinder jumped the last landing safely in joint third place….only to be brought down by a faller. There were only four in it at the time and both the 50-1 and both options for 6 and 7 places looked nailed on…..sometimes you wonder why you bother, but such is life.
As for tomorrow “Hopefull” has sent two selections which are
Market Rasen 1.15 Grasss Jet @ 13-2 3 places
Hereford 2.00 Puddlesinthepark @ 16-1 for 4 places
We only have options on the second selection which are 11-1 for 5 places and 19-2 for 6 places. Lets hope for a change of luck tomorrow.

[Mike]

Hi
That was a little better today as Puddlesinthepark placed fourth now with the non runners you may have picked up a 10p in the pound deduction but with BOG (best odds guaranteed) you would have got the 28-1 so swings and roundabouts. Although the option B bets for the extra places are not subject to BOG both would have come in.
We have the same situation tomorrow as “Hopefull” has sent three over which are as follows but we only have an option on the one again.
Taunton 1.25 Monjules @ 9-1 for 4 places
Lingfield 1.45 Abbeyhill @ 22-1
Musselburgh 3.20 Aazza @ 10-1
Now we have taken the 12-1 for 4 places on Abbeyhill as option B and would suggest that a cheeky each way double would be an alternative wager on the other two.

[Mike]

Hi
Aazza and Abbeyhill ran well enough but no return so it was down to Monjules to save the day and as we use bet365 we had our usual BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) we got a 25-1 place return which means we wiped our nose on the day.
Tomorrow see’s a make or break day on this one as “Hopefull” has sent over a full dance card of six runners
Doncaster 3.15 Keeper @ 80-1 but we have taken 11-1 for 7 places as the option
Newbury 2.30 Lord Baddersley @ 14-1 for 4 places
Newbury 3.40 Hardy Boy @ 14-1 for 4 places
Musselburgh 12.08 Agiluf @ 16-1 for 4 places
Musselburgh 2.20 Simply Red @ 12-1 for 4 places
Musselburgh 2.55 Prospect House @ 10-1

[Mike]

Hi
Well two placed at 14-1 and 16-1 from six wagers gave us a -4 point loss so no disasters yet but we could do with a better day today.
Fairyhouse 12.12 Rolly Bolly Boy @ 14-1 for 4 places
Newcastle 12.28 Ghand Maker @ 18-1 but we have gone with 10-1 for 4 places
Newbury 3.00 Henrys Friend @ 22-1 for 5 places
Newcastle 3.20 Special Rock @ 22-1 for 5 places but option B is 14-1 for 6 places

[Mike]

Hi
A quick update on a late trial run for the thread
Newbury 12.07 Little Soiree 125-1 but 20-1 for 5 is the alternative
Newbury 12.07 Kitty Foyle 66-1 but 17-1 for 5 looks best
Newbury 12.40 Fidelio Vallis 25-1 for 4 but 13-1 for 6 looks safer
Newcastle 2.10 Kihavah 33-1 but the sensible option is 11-1 for 2 places
Fairyhouse 2.10 Shanroe @ 40-1 for 6 (no options availble)
Newbury 2.25 Our Champ @ 12-1
Fairyhouse 3.05 Falcon Eight @ 14-1 for 6 (no available)
The last two have no options but this thread is just for reference so no harm done.

[Mike]

Hi
That was another full dance card for this thread and the results were you would have bet 22 points at a point each way on all the selections and with one non runner and four placed at odds of 22-1, 17-1 ,12-1 and 11-1 using our option B extra’s you would have lost -3.6 points on the day. Had you not done the two at Fairyhouse with (no options available) you would have been +0.40 points up. Had you taken them without option B it would have been a bad day.
Now we have been using option B throughout this thread and feel that is the way to go as we have only been using the horses from the lists that were available at each extra prices. Hopefull actually listed an 11-2 winner in Classic King today but we bypassed it as it was only 7-2 last night in a five runner race.
We will be handing this thread over to Hopefull who I believe now feels confident enough to put a few up but give the guy a chance he has to get over the curse of first time posting.
I will possibly be offline at the start of next week with a few hospital visits so tomorrow’s selections will be my last on this thread for the time being.
Fairyhouse 12.30 Ceol Draiochta 100-1
Fairyhouse 1.05 Dunboyne @ 16-1 for 5 places but 13-1 for 6 looks best
Carlisle 1.55 Shighness @ 14-1 4 places
Carlisle 2.30 Hardy Du Seuil @ 12-1
Carlisle 3.30 Bespoke Tailor @ 12-1
Carlisle 3.30 Bogleyburn @ 25-1 but we go 12-1 for 4 places

[Hopefull]

hi every one there are two selections tomorrow . It’s Sunday and still early so there appears to be no market place odds as yet. Both races
currently have 11 runners

Ffos las 14:05 Good Impression @ 9-1
Wolverhampton 19:00 Daaris @ 14-1

[Mike]

Hi Hopefull
Apologies for late response been a busy boy today. I will be out and about until about Wednesday but thought I would wish you all the best with Daaris tonight and hope the fact that Ffos Las being abandoned has broken the first time posting jinx….lol.
The obvious option which I am thinking you have already taken is 10-1 the 4 places BOG with bet365. The price is a few points less but stress this is just an option.
All the best Mike

[Mike]

Hi Hopefull
Nice start to your new career…lol. A 14-1 winner with your first runner nice to see all your hard work has paid off.

[Clarence]

Hiya, welcome to the madhouse Hopefull 😁nice win with Daaris you beat the first post curse 👍

[Hopefull]

Thankyou everyone, its the sharing of ideas with mike and testing that is getting us there.
We have just one selection tomorrow lets hope its another good results for us

Newcastle 14:54 Kaaranah @ 8/1 on paddy power and 888 at present with 12 runners

[Hopefull]

hi everyone if you were able to get on last night with Kaaranah
you would have made a small profit e/w at 8/1 before the markets formed
going off at 3/1 fav and coming in third
Tomorrow there is one selection

Dundalk 17.30 New Definition @ 12/1 for four places on paddy power

[Mike]

Hi Steve
Nice one 👍 I am stuck in hospital and cannot access my emails 🤦 but will be watching with interest.. Best of luck.

[Clarence]

Well done Hopefull , again another nice win👍. good luck with your race tomorrow 😊I will have a go at it on bet 365 at 14/1 for 4 places 🤞thanks for tip
also get well soon Mike ☹️ hope you feel better soon

[Author]

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