Thanks for linking my ramblings to the new antepost thread.
As usual you have asked a very pertinent question and I wish I could provide a definitive answer, but to be honest no top quality races at the Cheltenham Festival, or at other venues throughout the year will be off limits, provided my selections meet all of the following criteria:
1. I must be fairly confident that the selection will turn up for the race, or can be backed non runner no bet, as there is nothing worse in my ethos than not getting a run for my money.
2.. I must be fairly confident that my selections meet has a reasonable chance of either winning, or providing a positive place return, irrespective of which of the other entered runners turn up on the day.
3. I must be fairly confident that the antepost odds and place terms represent value when compared with the likely odds and places on offer on the day of the race.
Hence the majority of antepost bets made so far are on selections, who have just 1 entry at the Cheltenham Festival and have already shortened in the antepost markets.
Which brings me on to the main purpose of this post, which is to provide some thoughts on the entries that were made for the 6 novice events at the Cheltenham Festival which were published yesterday.
I will start with the hurdle races, which despite the large volume of entries proved rather easier for me to analyse.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE – 64 entries
Only 2 entries currently catch my eye as potential winners of the first race at the festival, namely OLD PARK STAR, who I have already commented on at length and backed antepost, plus TALK THE TALK who fell when looking like the winner last time out (not ideal) is also entered in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle.
TURNERS NOVICES’ HURDLE – 94 entries
Just 3 entries have currently made the shortlist, namely LOVE ME TENDER (also entered in the Albert Bartlett), plus SOBER and TALK THE TALK (who are both entered for the Supreme).
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE – 83 entries
My current shortlist consists of 7 entries, all of which are also entered in the Turners, namely CLASSICAL CREEK, FORTY COATS, KICOUR LA, KLIMT MADRIK, LOVE ME TENDER, SANTO SOSPIR and SORTUDO.
TRIUMPH HURDLE – 68 entries
Only 2 names have made the shortlist so far, namely NARCISCO HAS and ONE HORSE TOWN, but the former appears to short in the market to back at this stage, whereas the later could well end up running in the 4yo handicap hurdle at the festival.
Moving on to the novice chases, I found these much tougher to deal with despite the small number of entries, as they produced larger shortlists, plus there are a number of alternative races for which entries have yet to be published (e.g. National Hunt Chase, various novice and open handicaps, etc), which leaves us with a very murky picture.
ARKLE CHASE – 23 entries
My current shortlist contains 7 entries, but of these only 2 entries have no alternative targets, namely KOPEK DES BORDES and LULAMBA, who are both too short in the market, if ROMEO COOLIO turns up on the day.
BROWN ADVISORY NOVICE’S CHASE – 43 entries
There are 8 entries on my current shortlist, but I suspect that all but FINAL DEMAND either have and/orwill be given other options, so this is not a race to get involved in at this stage.
In conclusion, I have no additional selections at this stage, as none of my shortlisted entries meet the criteria at the top of this post, but will review these races again once non runner no bet odds become available.