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Mike.
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15/11/2024 at 10:52 AM #1843417/11/2024 at 8:14 PM #18464
MikeKeymasterHi Hopefull
Apologies we have not forgotten about this thread it is just that we are always busy on the first weekend of the Ten To Follow and there just are not enough hours in the day. But here is a revised look at the sheet provided and here is a list of the possibilities as we see them.
Leicester 12.40 George Mallory 7-1 but 11-2 for 4 places
Leicester 3.40 Bobby Socks @ 10-1 for 4 places
Wolverhampton 4.30 Keep Singing 14-1 but 11-1 for 4 places
Southwell 5.15 Whisky Priest 14-1 for 4 places and/or Al Baahy 14-1 for 4 places
Southwell 5.45 Arjid 7-1 for 4 places
Southwell 6.15 Alright Sunshine 50-1 but 40-1 for 3 places
Southwell 6.45 Cotai Vision 25-1
Southwell 8.15 First Company 6-1 but 5-1 for 4 places
We have just been dabbling to see what happens with this option and if we were pushed to pick a wager from the list it would be the highlighted options Bobby Socks from a form point of view and rank outsider Alright Sunshine due to the drop in class.18/11/2024 at 11:41 AM #18469
MikeKeymasterHi
In answer to a few queries over this thread we are trying to assist a new member to get the most of out a computer system that is producing winners but not necessarily running at it’s full potential. Now once the laughter dies down over myself technology and computers we will continue…lol.
Computer programs are great but if a computer program says Mikes Dream will win the 1.30 at Dreamland unfortunately the horse may not be privy to this and may not agree. But the most successful punters I know make good use of the statistic side of the equation offered by databases etc.
Now the idea of making a separate thread is so as not to interfere with our normal threads but still be a reference point for those who wish to follow its progress.
As for last nights list “Hopefull” actually supplied the data on some twenty races that included some short priced more obvious selections but we are trying to turn a profit at level stakes so hence we have put up our take on the information supplied. Also we have taken an early stand on some prices to try and achieve said profit which has meant using extra places and BOG offers where applicable.
The only selections that do not have BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) attached are the ones running at Leicester this afternoon.18/11/2024 at 10:04 PM #18480
MikeKeymasterHi
That was a little better today of the two we picked out Bobby Socks came 3rd taken @10-1 and the rank 50-1 outsider Alright Sunshine although not getting a return (as he needed 3rd) finished a close up 5th. Also of the others Al Baahy came 2nd taken at 14-1 and to finish the evening First Company was mugged late on to finish 2nd @ 33-1 (with BOG on all the Southwell bets). This means although at best we would have wiped our nose or lost the odd point it was a worthwhile exercise.
I am a bit short of time tonight but have looked through tomorrows sheets and will put two up for tomorrow over at Carlisle but with a change of betting strategy.
12.30 Wearelongterm 28-1 for 4 places looks tempting but 14-1 for 5 places looks a safer bet.
2.40 Uokhun 40-1 is too risky but 15-1 for 5 places looks realistic
Remember though we do not get best odds guaranteed on each way extras. I will post the remainder of the unused list later or tomorrow.19/11/2024 at 10:53 AM #18493
MikeKeymasterHi
Southwell has just been abandoned and Fakenham holds no real appeal with limited runners throughout the card we have covered Carlise and this leaves us just a couple of options at Lingfield.
11.10 Certain Style has a squeak for three places at 14-1
2.15 Five Winds at 12-1 could be worth a punt in a wide open handicap
We have covered Limerick elsewhere Winning Post Tips with Scriabin in the 12.45 but Vintage Gold looks an option for 4 places in the 3.30.
These are just notes from the remaining options from the data supplied by “Hopefull” and we will be sticking to our two from last night as there are likely to be a lot of non runners due to the weather.19/11/2024 at 6:31 PM #18503
MikeKeymasterHi
Well its hats off to “Hopefull” and the sin bin for me…lol. Of all the sheets sent to me regarding today’s racing I managed in the time I had to cherry pick two runners of which one Wearelongterm pulled up and the other Uokhun unseated the rider early doors. Of the next best selections in the previous post (only put up as options) Certain Style won at 28-1 and I advised taking the 14-1 for 3 places 🙁 Five Winds won at 9-1 but at least the advised option was 12-1. The third optional extra Vintage Gold placed at 12-1 and completed the embarrassment…lol.
Also on the sheets sent to me Epsom Faithful todays 100-1 winner had been listed but as there is more than one horse listed for each race in fairness I would probably bypassed that one unless it had been a stand out each way extra.
Now hopefully this goes along way to proving Hopefull’s sheets are worth there salt but one day does not make a week and it will be interesting to see which way the thread goes next. ? I am a bit pushed for time tonight and will be keeping an eye on the weather for tomorrow but will endeavor to post something by late morning.19/11/2024 at 11:10 PM #18507
MikeKeymasterHi
I have cherry picked (given the kiss of death to) one race from each meeting for tomorrow with the exception of my local track Ffos Las.
Warwick 2.40 Decorated @ 14-1 for 3 places (skybet)
Hexham 2.55 Kauto Damur 18-1 but we have gone 10-1 without both Flash Du Pistolet & Return Fire
Dundalk 4.10 Little Keile @ 20-1 for 5 places (skybet)
Kempton 5.30 Hafeet Alain @ 10-1 for 5 places
Kempton 5.30 Sterling Knight 25-1 but we have gone 10-1 for 7 places (bet365)20/11/2024 at 6:17 PM #18512
MikeKeymasterHi
Well the “kiss of death” phrase was meant to be a joke but with Hexham being abandoned this left us with just three races of which in one Little Keile where wanted fifth came sixth by a neck and Hafeet Alain where we once again needed fifth came sixth by a short head (you get days like that). 🙁
This leave us thinking we are on the right track but need an extra edge somewhere. Unfortunately we have a busy time tonight on our own data base’s so will not get a chance to post until tomorrow.20/11/2024 at 10:50 PM #18514
MikeKeymasterHi
A late call but as we cannot guarantee getting on this thread everyday and as we have a busy long weekend (Friday to Monday) coming up we will go all in tomorrow to try and prove the point one way or the other.
Lingfield 11.30 Mildyjama 50-1 but we will go 15-1 for 6 places
Lingfield 2.35 Moorgate 14-1 but we are going 19-2 for 5 places
Thurles 3.14 Tasmaninan Girl 50-1 but 17-1 for 5 places looks the bet
Lingfield 3.38 McTed 25-1 we go 12-1 6 places
Wincanton 3.58 Kintara @ 14-1 4 places
Southwell 4.30 Georgina 25-1 we are going 21-2 for 5 places
Southwell 5.00 Benacre 20-1 but 21-2 for 6 looks best
Southwell 6.30 Dark Moon Rising 18-1 try the 11-1 for 4 places
Southwell 8.30 Hail Sezer 50-1 we are going 15-1 for 6 places
The first price is the best available tonight and the highlighted price is the option. We just want to see whether we can turn a level stakes profit out of one of these options. ?21/11/2024 at 9:42 PM #18525
MikeKeymasterHi
Well that went quite well if you had taken the first option the standard bet at 1 point each way you would have cleared a +25.70 point profit.
Lingfield 11.30 Mildyjama 50-1 but we will go 15-1 for 6 places (6th)
Lingfield 2.35 Moorgate 14-1 but we are going 19-2 for 5 places lost
Thurles 3.14 Tasmaninan Girl 50-1 but 17-1 for 5 places looks the bet (2nd)
Lingfield 3.38 McTed 25-1 we go 12-1 6 places (2nd)
Wincanton 3.58 Kintara @ 14-1 4 places (4th)
Southwell 4.30 Georgina 25-1 we are going 21-2 for 5 places (3rd)
Southwell 5.00 Benacre 20-1 but 21-2 for 6 looks best lost
Southwell 6.30 Dark Moon Rising 18-1 try the 11-1 for 4 places (1st)
Southwell 8.30 Hail Sezer 50-1 we are going 15-1 for 6 places lost
If you had used the same 1 point each way wager and taken the safer route you would have made a +15.90 point profit.
Now “Hopefull” I am hoping is well onboard and if he cannot post I will post for him but as stated yesterday I am a bit pushed for time at weekends when all the competitions are on etc.22/11/2024 at 9:52 AM #18531
MikeKeymasterHi
After yesterdays success it looks like there is a bit of interest in the thread so I will quickly put a few up this morning and see how the day goes for tonight’s runners.
Chepstow 1.40 As Fast As Wind 100-1 (3) we have gone 12-1 for 6 places
Tipperary 1.57 Dream Shaper 20-1 (5) but we go 19-2 for 8 places
Tipperary 2.32 Ladium @ 10- 1 for 5 places
Tipperary 2.32 Stellar Symphony 20-1 (5) but 10-1 for 8 places looks best
2.50 Chepstow 25-1 (4) but but we go 23-2 for 6
3.15 Ascot Time To Bite 25-1 (3) we have gone with 10-1 for 8 places
We have put the best available places for a standard bet in brackets to clarify the options. Now the way this works is “Hopefull” has been sending me sheets of information which we have whittled down from three or more selections for every race on the day to one or two selections on specific races. Hopefully (no pun intended…lol) we have hit on a workable system but only time will time and you just know there will be a bad day on the horizon somewhere but such is life.22/11/2024 at 5:43 PM #18538
MikeKeymasterHi
Not a great mornings work but it could have been worse just two tonight which are as follows
Newcastle 6.15 Giselles Izzy 40-1 but 18-1 for 4 places
Newcastle 7.45 Evoluir 33-1 but 16-1 for 6 places look best23/11/2024 at 10:43 AM #18545
MikeKeymasterHi
As hinted yesterday I was not expecting another bumper day and of the seven I managed to write down correctly (it was a busy day) we only got one in at the original odds which was Stellar Symphony 20-1 and of course that one returned at 10-1 via the second option but also had As Fast As Wind at 12-1 with the extra places.
This means with option 1 we were -9 points on the day and option 2 -7.6 points but are still happy bunnies after Thursday’s results. However the weekend brings out the big guns and with a non runner on the list already means we have just two going today both at Wolverhampton tonight.
7.25 Ecclesiastical 16-1 (3) but we have gone 10-1 betting without both Ziggys Missile and Night on Earth
8.25 The African Queen 40-1 but we will go with 13-1 for 7 places24/11/2024 at 1:48 PM #18549
MikeKeymasterHi
Well another couple of blanks here but Ecclesiastical was only one place off and we wanted 7th with The African Queen but you guessed it we came 8th losing out by a neck….lol. These things happen and todays sole selection was at Cork which has been abandoned so we have a day or so off until next week.25/11/2024 at 6:42 PM #18565
MikeKeymasterHi
We have just the one for tomorrow as racing is a bit thin on the ground but it could be worth a punt as it is very much last chance saloon for this one having shown nothing to date.
Sedgefield 1.25 Foshan 50-1
This one has shown nothing in three hurdle starts and will probably do no better today but the trainer has very few hurdle runners and amazingly shows a profit on his hurdlers this season. The horse itself is now running in its first handicap and if ever there was day to back this lad its today. He runs off a very low mark in a poor race and 14-1 for 7 places is our take on it. -
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