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Mike.
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09/04/2024 at 3:35 PM #1730710/04/2024 at 6:36 AM #17320
MikeKeymasterHi
The price on Duhallow Jury had been bugging me all night so I checked my excel sheet and found a silly error which unfortunately does not effect just Duhallow Jury but also all the other runners beginning with the letter D.
I have corrected the error and here is the revised set of tissue odds.
Jeanniemacaroney 2-1
Doctor Nightingale 3-1
Lady Of The Locke 9-2
Queenofthelodge 9-1
Duhallow Jury 10-1
Drum Roll 12-1
Moonlight Mist 14-1
Avandra 16-1
Dinner At Freddys 20-1
Give Me A Smile 20-1
Duchamps Art 33-1
Her Self 100-1
Keyser Smokesy 100-1
Kp’s Ladyofknock 100-1
This has more or less doubled the odds on all the runners starting with the letter D and means we have had to adjust the market slightly on the other runners but I am confident everything else is ok. We now just have wait another 12 hours or so until the old enemy (the bookies) print there first set of odds.10/04/2024 at 8:50 PM #17335MikeKeymasterHi
The wait is over and here are the prices using bet365 and (betfair) as comparisons.
Jeanniemacaroney 2-1 5-6 (10-11)
Doctor Nightingale 3-1 7-1 (7-1)
Lady Of The Locke 9-2 11-4 (9-4)
Queenofthelodge 9-1 50-1 (50-1)
Duhallow Jury 10-1 33-1 (16-1)
Drum Roll 12-1 33-1 (40-1)
Moonlight Mist 14-1 16-1 (16-1)
Avandra 16-1 33-1 (66-1)
Dinner At Freddys 20-1 66-1 (66-1)
Give Me A Smile 20-1 16-1 (16-1)
Duchamps Art 33-1 100-1 (40-1)
Her Self 100-1 16-1 (16-1
Keyser Smokesy 100-1 33-1 (33-1)
Kp’s Ladyofknock 100-1 33-1 (25-1)
This could have been a lot worse we got the right favourite and the correct three at the head of the market which are distinctly separate from the rest of the field pricewise. Give Me A Smile, Moonlight Mist and Duhallow Jury were there or thereabouts depending on who you bet with and it will be interesting to see an updated market in the morning. We now go to part two of the Baldrick and look to attempt a trade in the race.
But as for tonight we would be expecting Drum Roll to shorten up in the morning from tonight’s 40-1 and Kp’s Ladyofknock to lengthen from tonight’s 25-1. These were betfair prices which we would like to offer or take on the exchanges. The real problem with these will be getting some interest on a race likely to be dominated by the front three in the market. Therefore we will try the following where again we will use the betfair prices.
Lady Of the Locke we will lay at 9-4 and Doctor Nightingale we will back to win at 7-1.
Now once again we wait, this time on the exchange markets and hope we have got this right. 🙂11/04/2024 at 11:06 AM #17341MikeKeymasterHi
Having “Laid” Lady Of The Locke to lose last night at 9-4 we have now “Backed” her to win at 5-1. We will use a 10 point stake as our example instead of our usual 1 point to avoid too many fractions.
Now we had looked to back Lady Of The Locke at 9-4 to lose which means we had looked to back 22.50 to win 10 (we are now effectively the bookmaker). If she wins we lose our 22.50 points if she loses we win 10 points.
Then when the price (as we predicted/hoped/lost sleep over) did drift out this morning to 5-1 we then backed her to win for 6 points.
This means that if Lady Of The Locke wins we win 30 points from our win bet but lose the 22.50 points from our lay bet last night which gives us 7.5 point profit. If however Lady Of The Locke loses we lose our 6 point stake from the win bet placed this morning points but gain the 10 points from our lay bet last night which gives us a 4 point profit.
Effectively this means we cannot lose either way… Simples. 🙂
Hmmm… Maybe not the exchange markets are where you are hoping that someone has the opposite view to you and is offering the price you want. In actual fact although priced at 9-4 to win last night the best we could get on the lay markets (to lose) was 3-1 which means we would have to have placed 30 points to win 10. This means our bet to win this morning had to be 7 points to cover our possible losses from last night. Which in real terms still means we make 5 points if Lady Of The Locke wins and 3 points if she loses. Also you wilL get a 5% deduction on your winning bet as betfair takes a commison for dealing with the bets placed (only fair in the circumstances). Add on any deductions they may or may not add for any non runners and you have done a lot of work laid out 41 points to maybe win 3. But as Ridiculous ideas go this one has so far come out as a positive.
Effectively we got lucky or were very clever Lady Of The Locke drifted right out and since we have placed our bet MoonLight Mist has become a non runner so Lady Of The Locke has now gone back into 11-4.
There is ample opportunity for us to balance our bet on Doctor Nightingale so lets just now wait again for the race the starting prices and finishing positions to see the final result. ??11/04/2024 at 4:01 PM #17346MikeKeymasterHi
Here is the final result, prices and positions of the first Ridiculous Idea of 2024 🙂
I had plenty of time to lay Doctor Nightingale for a small profit as his price did shortened up (as predicted last night) and not only did he shorten up in price but he also went on to win. 🙂 It was a tight finish with Jeaniemacaroney finishing second and Lady Of The Locke finishing third our fourth horse in the betting finished sixth and our fifth horse in the betting finished fourth. At the tail end of the market we had three horses we thought were no hopers and two of those Her Self and Kp’s Ladyofknock duly finished last and second to last.
Jeanniemacaroney 2-1 5-6 (10-11) Finished 2nd @ 8-11 🙂
Doctor Nightingale 3-1 7-1 (7-1) Won @ 7-2 🙂
Lady Of The Locke 9-2 11-4 (9-4) Finished 3rd @ 10-3 🙂
Queenofthelodge 9-1 50-1 (50-1) finished 6th @ 125-1 🙂
Duhallow Jury 10-1 33-1 (16-1) Finished 4th @ 80-1 🙂
Drum Roll 12-1 33-1 (40-1) Finished 8th @ 33-1 ?
Moonlight Mist 14-1 16-1 (16-1) Non Runner
Avandra 16-1 33-1 (66-1) Finished 10th @ 100-1 ?
Dinner At Freddys 20-1 66-1 (66-1) Finished 12th @ 125-1 🙁
Give Me A Smile 20-1 16-1 (16-1) Finished 5th @ 16-1 ?
Duchamps Art 33-1 100-1 (40-1) Finished 9th @ 125-1 ?
Her Self 100-1 16-1 (16-1 Finished 11th @ 40-1 🙂
Keyser Smokesy 100-1 33-1 (33-1) Finished 7th @ 150-1 ?
Kp’s Ladyofknock 100-1 33-1 (25-1) Finished last @ 125-1 🙂
As you can see I am pretty chuffed with the whole thing :)… except that for me if you know you are going to make a small profit before the race starts regardless of the result there is no point or fun in watching it. 🙁
Now if you have a big budget are doing it professionally and have the knowledge then great. If like myself you bet for fun and half the fun of it is looking forward to the watching the race and awaiting the outcome then it might not be for you.
In summary I loved the idea of trying to beat the book and I am sure I will be looking for a different way to try the idea out. But for now I will retire the idea gracefully until I can figure of way of using the exchange to our advantage but with a decent but manageable risk factor to make it interesting. Here’s the thing, on the site we put up Mr incredible @ 40-1 for the Grand National a few weeks ago and he is now priced up at 12-1 so you if you had done that bet, you could now double your money by cashing out the question is would you. ??11/04/2024 at 4:33 PM #17350
ClarenceParticipantWell done Mike 😁 I have been following with interest and a little confusion but thank you for explaining everything as you went through it, and a great outcome 👍👍, it’s an interesting twist to betting but as you say watching the race is the fun part 😁 I followed your post and took Mr incredible for40/1 , and in answer to your question, no I am keeping mine going 😃🤞
12/04/2024 at 11:47 AM #17355MikeKeymasterHi Suds
Nice to know someone was following the idea…lol. Dozens of people hit on the thread but it is a bit complicated and can be a tricky read. I may well follow up on the idea as the exchanges fascinate me (it’s all that mathematics…lol) maybe we could use one of the database’s and try the idea out on the Rugby, Football or Basketball. ? I will drop you a line to see what we can come up with. By using sports with just two teams it should be easier to get your head around it. 🙂15/04/2024 at 8:37 PM #17385ClarenceParticipantHiya Mike, ok i am getting the gist of it 👍😊 what are your thoughts on Lions v Leinster game this weekend🏉
16/04/2024 at 5:09 AM #17386MikeKeymasterHi Suds
Strangely, at about the same time you were posting I was backing Leinster at evens on the exchange’s.🤣
I will flip this idea over to the goalposts thread to try it out. 👍
As for this thread the next “Ridiculous Idea” is not far off and may revolve around how Gabriel Ranger does in the 3.15 at Naas. This one we put up at 12-1 last night and backed on the exchanges just over 10-1. (Remember you can only take what you get offered). We hope to trade this one off this morning when the markets open up. 😬18/04/2024 at 8:56 AM #17438MikeKeymasterHi
Having had a successful dabble last week into the idea of the forming markets and using the exchange markets (including Gabriel ranger Backed @ 10-1 Laid @ 7-1) something else occurred to me (that’s never a good sign). I have been willing giving money to a young lady for about 20 years now and have asked for nothing back in return. It has been a fun ride with it’s usual relationship ups and downs but only now have I realised that “Denise” is now a billionaire and I have just retired with a state pension and a few quid in the bank.
Now Denise runs bet365 and I drive on old Rio Clio with a dodgy clutch so maybe it’s time I tried being a bookmaker…lol. 🙂
We will be looking for a race that suits our database and will attempt to trade every horse in the race just to see how difficult it is. The only minor issue I can foresee is that Denise trained as an accountant and probably has vast array of stat busting computers and thousands of highly motivated employees which might just give her an edge. I think from memory I just about spelt my name right on the top of my maths GCSE exam form at school (that surely should have been worth an extra mark) :(.
Watch this space for our maiden voyage of the good ship “Bookie Buster” I will be watching out for icebergs. 🙁26/04/2024 at 9:21 AM #17517MikeKeymasterHi
For those following the thread (I can see you…lol) 🙂 I have not given up on the good ship “Bookie Buster” but am taking my time with the launch as we need to create another spreadsheet that will help us balance the books. When using Betfair they supply you with the relavent software when you place bets on there exchanges but we will be making our own book utilising several different bookmakers odds.
As an example we put up Custers Mistake last night on the Winning Post Tips thread as a bet or a possible trade as we could get 33-1 with bet365 but only 16-1 with betfair. I hope this makes sense but we are going to need to use every possible edge to make this work. “Ridiclous Ideas” can be expensive when they go wrong. 🙁
I hope to launch this idea soon and hopefully it will become clearer as we get up and running. 🙂08/05/2024 at 3:04 PM #17626MikeKeymasterHi
After Custers Mistake when on to win it was a double edged sword for us as it was a cracking win bet for us and would have made an ideal trade. But obviously had we traded we would have dropped a 33-1 winner for a small secure profit. However we have adjusted the idea somewhat and will try this out tomorrow. We have attempted to form our own market in the 5.40 at Tipperary tomorrow and will highlight six horses who we will be looking to trade dependent on there opening odds primarily with bet365 and Sky bet.
Oneforgonzo 4-1
Rockbrook 5-1
Hunting Brook 11-2
Milk Market 6-1
Gabriel Ranger 8-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1
We are looking in the main at these two bookmakers as they are the most likely to offer the extra places to help pull this new “Ridiculous Idea” off. The 6 horses listed above are the ones we feel most likely to fill the top 4 places which is likely to be the normal places on offer in a 16 runner handicap.
The thing with these ideas is that things have to fall in place early doors so we need to have the above listed runners realistically in the top half of the market to start with so that means squeeky bum time till 6pm.08/05/2024 at 6:45 PM #17631MikeKeymasterHi
Well that went reasonably well as the bookies prices were averaging as listed below in bold
Oneforgonzo 4-1 11-4
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1
Hunting Brook 11-2 10-1
Milk Market 6-1 11-4
Gabriel Ranger 8-1 10-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1 33-1
This means I have taken an each way punt for 5 places on these
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1
Hunting Brook @ 12-1
Rockbrook @ 12-1
I will now put up a few win lay options on Mr Sundancer, Milk Market and to a degree Oneforgonzo.I know this is a little confusing but hopefully I will be able to explain it post by post but first have to see if anyone matches my initial trades.
09/05/2024 at 8:44 AM #17644MikeKeymasterHi
We have seen very little action on the exchange markets overnight and the only interest shown was in the lay on the win part of Mr Sundancer but it is early days and we will check again once the non runners are declared.
Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1 is the only one we have not dabbled with yet and had the race been a shorter trip we would have gone all in. However we will keep an eye on him as he is on our to follow list and if he gets the trip could be the surprise package here. ?09/05/2024 at 5:40 PM #17649MikeKeymasterHi
Well I could not get any other bets matched which is a bit disappointing and means we go back to the drawing board for now but we will try again soon. As for todays race it is due off shortly and if nothing else we will find out how our selections and more importantly our price structuring holds up. Noble Talent and Arabian King have been big market movers but I could not have predicted those. I see no reason to change my market selections and with Rockbrook being anon runner we will go with our back up option which was Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1. It would be nice to see our lay’s Milk Market and Oneforgonzo get beaten and our remaining selections get in the top five. -
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